$CLAV (-1,67%) Enclosed I would like to provide you with a summary of a stock report on Clavister. Those who are looking for multibaggers and have no aversion to risk may feel addressed. Have fun reading and good business at all times. Of course I am interested in your opinion
Executive Summary
Key message: Clavister is a Swedish small cap in the cybersecurity sector that is recovering operationally after years of weakness and presents itself as a speculative growth opportunity thanks to well-known partnerships (BAE Systems, Saab, NXP) and rising order intake. The report sees the company as a potential "Palantir of Europe" in the niche area of secure, mission-critical networks and recommends a speculative positioning with strict risk management.
Market environment and drivers
Growth momentum: Global spending on cyber security is increasing significantly (2025e ~95bn USD). Regulatory measures such as the EU Cyber Resilience Act (implementation by 11.12.2027) are increasing the demand for certified security solutions. Megatrends: Digitization, connected vehicles, AI integration and rising cybercrime are driving demand for next-generation firewalls (NGFW), intrusion prevention and domain-aware real-time communication. Market structure: Room for multiple vendors; large vendors dominate, but specialized niche solutions for government, defense and critical infrastructure are in demand.
Company profile Clavister
History and positioning: Founded in 1997 in Örnsköldsvik; pioneer in the firewall business; listed on Nasdaq First North via holding company since 2015. Focus on NGFWs and solutions for hybrid environments. Management: Founder John Vestberg remains CEO; many years of industry expertise. Product focus: NGFW, AI-supported, hardwired cyber systems for vehicles (e.g. "Cyber Armour"), secure real-time communication via classified domains.
Operational development and key financial figures
Share price and market capitalization: Share price level approx. 0,42 €, market capitalization approx. 130 million € (small cap). Turnover and incoming orders: Turnover 2025e 21.1 million €. Incoming orders H1 2025 186.5 MILLION EUROS vs. H1 2024 SEK 88.3 MILLION - significant upturn. Profitability: EBITDA improved (H1 2025 SEK 13.3 MILLION vs. H1 2024 SEK 12.8 MILLION); earnings per share remain negative, EPS heavily diluted due to capital increase Capital structure: A highly dilutive capital increase took place at the beginning of 2024 (number of shares quadrupled), which put pressure on the share price and EPS in the short term, but secured liquidity in the long term. Analyst opinion in the report: Target price 2,10 €; Speculative buy recommendation with a clear position size limit.
Clients, partnerships and references
BAE Systems: Several orders, including development and delivery of "Cyber Armor" for tank platforms (CV90). Order 2025: 53 MSEK - strategically important for the defense segment. Saab: Partnership to develop secure real-time communication via classified domains (NATO Restricted/Secret) - strengthens access to NATO customers and defense contracts. NXP Semiconductors: Collaboration for automotive security; addresses regulatory requirements (UNECE) and increasing demand for vehicle cybersecurity. Government references: Order from a European law enforcement agency (approx. SEK 3 million) as proof of trust for mission-critical applications.
Opportunities and catalysts
- Regulatory tailwind (EU Cyber Resilience Act) increases demand for certified solutions.
- Growing order pipeline and well-known partnerships can scale sales and margins.
- Industry consolidation: Clavister could become a takeover target, which may unleash share price potential.
- Technical specialization: Solutions for classified communications and military platforms are difficult to substitute and offer high barriers to entry.
Risks and weaknesses
- Financial dilution: The 2024 capital increase has impacted EPS and shareholder structure; future capital measures possible.
- Concentration risk: Dependence on a few large orders increases sales volatility.
- Competitive pressure: Large cybersecurity groups and specialized providers can attack market share.
- Small free float and liquidity: Small-cap nature leads to high share price volatility; investment remains speculative.
- Operational implementation: Incoming orders must be sustainably converted into recurring sales and profitability.
Conclusion and recommended action
Briefly: Clavister is a promising but speculative small cap with clear progress in order intake, strong strategic partnerships and regulatory tailwinds. The stock offers high upside potential, but is risky due to dilution, low market capitalization and dependence on large customers. Recommendation of the report: Speculative buy idea with target price 2,10 €Investors should strictly limit position sizes and use stop-loss/take-profit rules. The risk profile is unsuitable for conservative investors.
