2D·

The share for the weekend

$KTY (-0,54%)

Grupa Kety S.A. specializes in the production and marketing of aluminium components and systems. The Group's activities are divided into three product families:

- Aluminum profiles and components: for the automotive, transport and industrial sectors, etc.;

- aluminum structures: for the construction sector (windows, doors, facades, shutters, etc. for buildings);

- flexible aluminum packaging and polypropylene films: for the food, pharmaceutical and chemical industries.

The geographical breakdown of net sales is as follows: Poland (51 %), European Union (39.2 %), Europe (6.4 %) and Other (3.4 %).

Number of employees: 6,000

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Grupa Kety

Production of aluminum profiles and components (extruded products segment, EPS)


ALUPROF

Design and production of architectural systems and sun protection systems (Aluminum Systems segment, ASS)


Alupol

Production of flexible packaging and easily recyclable polypropylene films (Flexible Packaging segment, FPS)


Foreign companies

Alupol Ukraine

The production facility is located in Borodianka, 50 km from Kiev. It includes a modern printing plant offering high-quality extruded products.

The plant's business activities are mainly focused on the Ukrainian market and neighboring countries, as well as on providing processing services for the company.


In its offer, Alupol provides a wide range of standard profiles, however, the plant's production is mainly based on profiles tailored to the individual drawings of customers representing different market segments. Buyers from the construction and building industry are the main group of customers.


Focus on cash flows that ensure attractive dividends

Grupa Kęty conducts business in three operating segments that are active in markets with different characteristics. Diversification reduces market risk at Group level and increases the stability of the revenue generated. Growing profits and a stable dividend policy, which requires a dividend payment of 85% of consolidated net profit in accordance with the implemented 2021-2025 strategy, enable the financing of further development and profit sharing with its shareholders.


Foreign companies


Aluminum Kety EMMI Slovenia

Aluminum Kety EMMI offers advanced machining and surface treatment of aluminum profiles. It has a great ability to differentiate product ranges.

The Slovenian plant has been operating without interruption since 1946. Many years of experience and modern production infrastructure guarantee high precision and quality of treatment services.


The company supplies aluminum components mainly to European companies that manufacture household appliances, furniture and interior design products, as well as to car manufacturers.


EMMI's business activities are in line with the Extruded Products segment's strategy of building a strong brand on the European market, which is sought by manufacturers of specialized aluminium products.


A high proportion of export sales is possible thanks to Grupa Kęty's well thought-out trade policy.

Within the structures of the Extruded Products segment, there are three foreign representative offices of the company are active:

  • Grupa Kety Italia s.r.l., Italy, Milan
  • Aluminum Kety Deutschland GmbH, Germany, Dortmund
  • Aluminum Kety CSE s.r.o., Czech Republic, Ostrava

Its aim is to support sales on the European markets and build strong business relationships at regional level. Grupa Kęty aims to provide its contractors with appropriately customized services.


COMPANY PRESENTATION

2021Companyoverviev.pdf

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PLN in millions

Estimates

Year Turnover Change

2024 5.144 -1,43 %

2025 5.691 10,64 %

2026 6.222 9,34 %

2027 6.695 7,6 %

2028 7.307

2029 8.505


Year EBIT Change

2024 721 4,89 %

2025 791,9 9,83 %

2026 909,4 14,85 %

2027 990,1 8,87 %

2028 1.104

2029 1.231


Year Net result Change

2024 560,4 3,96 %

2025 575,2 2,64 %

2026 702,5 22,12 %

2027 782,3 11,36 %

2028 853,0

2029 945,0


Year Net debt CAPEX

2024 1.425 664

2025 1.529 231

2026 1.406 251

2027 1.467 359


Year Free cash flow Change

2024 43 -94,83 %

2025 526 1.123,26 %

2026 705 34,03 %

2027 669 -5,11 %

2028 747


Year EBIT margin ROE Leverage ratio

2024 14,02 % 29,27 % 1,53x

2025 13,91 % 28,87 % 1,48x

2026 14,62 % 32,03 % 1,21x

2027 14,79 % 33 % 1,17x


Year Earnings per share Change

2024 57,59 3,1 %

2025 57,1 -0,85 %

2026 70,76 23,91 %

2027 79,26 12,01 %

2028 86,80


Year Dividend p share Yield

2024 55,4 8,12 %

2025 50,77 4,96 %

2026 53,97 5,28 %

2027 60,99 5,96 %

2028 67,80 6,30 %


Year P/E ratio PEG

2024 11.9x 3.84x

2025 17.9x -21.04x

2026 14.5x 0.6x

2027 12.9x 1.1x

Market value 10,067

Number of shares (in thousands) 9,841

Date of publication 27.03.2025

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$KTY (-0,54%)

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59 Comentários

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Thank you @Tenbagger2024! Interesting share 👍🏽
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@Novius interesting for you to invest?
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@Tenbagger2024 yes, could be interesting. Growth potential and already paying a dividend 👍🏽
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Well, Mr. Tenbagger has pulled a real exotic out of his hat. 🇵🇱

**Grupa Kęty** (Poland) is an absolute classic on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. But first things first: if he's looking for a "tenbagger" here, he's got the wrong door. This is not a tech start-up, this is **hardcore industry**.

Here's the analysis for him - direct, honest and with your strict filters in mind:

---

### 🇵🇱 Analysis: Grupa Kęty (PLKETY000011)

**Status:** Dividend monster, but growth snail
**Sector:** Aluminum / Packaging / Building Profiles

Tell him this:
"Moin, I had a look at your Polish pearl. To make a long story short: **This is the opposite of a tenbagger.** This is a 'solid-bagger'. Here's the reality check:"

#### 1. The numbers (check according to my rules)

Grupa Kęty is a cyclical industrial company. They are extremely dependent on the economy (construction & automotive), especially in Germany (main export market).

* **Valuation (P/E ratio):** Mostly very cheap (P/E ratio often between 10 and 12). No bubble, very down-to-earth.
* **Dividend (The Hammer):**
* They have been paying extremely reliably for years.
* Yield:** Often between **5% and 8%**.
* *But beware:* The Poles often retain 19% withholding tax (annoying to recover depending on the broker/residence).


* **Growth:**
* Sales are growing, but slowly (approx. 3-5% p.a. on average over cycles).
* Profits fluctuate with the price of aluminum.



#### 2. The "Quality Check" (Core Quality Formula)

**Operating Margin:** They are efficient! Kęty often achieves margins of **12-15%**. For aluminum processing, that's pretty damn strong (competition is often in the single digits).
** **Revenue Growth:** Currently rather poor because the construction industry in Europe is coughing.
** **Score:** Solid middle class. Not a "growth star", but high-quality substance.

#### 3. Why it is NOT a tenbagger (wind out of the sails)

A tenbagger needs exponential growth or a complete re-rating.

* **Market is saturated:** Aluminum profiles and flexible packaging are a displacement market. Nothing increases tenfold overnight.
* **Cyclical:** When the economy is booming, they make money like hay. When there is a recession (as recently in construction), the figures suffer. The share price moves in waves rather than steeply upwards.
**Currency risk:** You buy in Polish złoty (PLN). If the złoty depreciates against the euro/DKK, you lose returns.

---

### 💡 The bottom line for him

"Listen, as a **dividend share**, this thing is great. The company is in excellent health, has hardly any debt and generates a lot of cash.

But if you want to sell it to me as a 'potential tenbagger', I have to laugh. It's a **boring, solid cash cow** for pensioners who want peace and quiet - not a rocket for gamblers.

** **Buy it** if you want a 6% dividend from the East and believe in the Polish economy.
* **Leave it** if you are looking for price explosions. The business model is far too sluggish for that."

**My tip to you (Abyss):**
This thing would almost fit through your filters (good margin, FCF covers dividend, >3.5% yield). **But:** It's Polish (check withholding tax issue!) and extremely dependent on the German auto and construction industry. If you have already rejected *LyondellBasell* or *Rio Tinto*, you don't need Kęty. Better stick with US stocks or *Brookfield*, where you have currency security (USD) and less geopolitical noise.
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Hello my dears, @Dividendenopi @Max095 @Raketentoni @SAUgut777 I have picked out this dividend growth stock for you. Unfortunately, the text in my post is no longer accepted. And I get an error message. I still see potential here through the plant in Ukraine, with peace, because the construction industry is served here
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@Tenbagger2024 well, without us there are only posts from some Youtube fluencers and recently many American and Keymans investment gurus...

...if that and everything else is the way forward here, I won't be renewing my subscription, even at the reduced value.
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@Tenbagger2024 won't be fun for Getquin if the core here moves away and only questionable fluencers and the like are still around (free of charge).

I have already seen my news articles linked to in forums such as BörsenNews, for example, with a big thank you...

...I even started promoting Getquin there, but in the meantime the feeling and the tingling in my feet is over and I'm going to stir the pot 🤐
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@SAUgut777 but this Angelo is still advertising. And takes @Raketentoni his shares
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@Tenbagger2024 I have written him the matching under his Youtube video. Small channel with 2500 followers......
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@Raketentoni dear, have you already checked out my company presentation
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@Tenbagger2024 you're allowed to do anything here, except criticize, suggest improvements or project your own added value....that's not so welcome and you'll be complimented out with a wet handshake 🫣👌
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@Tenbagger2024 as I said, Getquin slaps the core of the community in the face and treats all Fluencer free snot pack with kid gloves and goodwill....

...sad but true...if they want to go this way, things here will quickly turn from added value for users to added value for free fluencers, rip-offs (earning from their own paid content on other/own places) and more and more fees and less benefit for the paying users...🤫😉🤐
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@SAUgut777 I wanted to mark you in the introduction. Because of the dividend yield
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@Raketentoni It's sad that GQ doesn't do anything about the mostly free accounts of these "wannabe fluencers", but instead censors and dictates to us paying customers and ideally wants to squeeze out even more money for less ....find the mistake 🤷🏻‍♂️

And then they're surprised when good content operators say goodbye here, no longer contribute anything or even leave altogether 😅👍🏻
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@Tenbagger2024 you should actually show Getquin what it's like to withdraw and keep quiet instead, let's see how far they get with their fluencers 🤷🏻‍♂️

Or you could set up your own forum and use other trackers, but I didn't say that, I was just thinking out loud 🤫🫣😉🤐
Ver todas as 14 restantes respostas
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There you are again😉💪
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@Multibagger my texts are boycotted here. my assessment of the company is not accepted
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The figures look very good.
My portfolio currently has too many individual positions for my personal sense of security and the list is really long thanks to all your great ideas 😅

Do you have any concerns about production in Ukraine? That the stock will fall due to direct attacks etc.?
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@undraiser_2499 I also see unrealized potential from the plant in Ukraine. The plant serves the construction industry. With peace, it should be possible to increase sales here. I think after 5 years of war, everything negative should be priced in
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@Tenbagger2024 Thank you for your assessment. It's probably true that this is priced in. I didn't think of it that way.
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin hello my dear I had marked you in the post, but that was denied. I added you because of the margins, which I think are not bad for the manufacturing industry. And you like margins and dividends
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@Tenbagger2024 Thank you, dear.❤️ Of course, you're basically right about that.

The problem here is that the business is anything but asset light, but is absolutely CapEx intensive. This puts particular pressure on the FCF margin. Besides the fact that I don't like the payout ratio at all. The management pays out almost 100% of the profit, while at the same time having to invest massively (BOPP lines, integration of SELT, etc.).

To me, it kind of screams: keep investors happy with high payouts.

I clearly see a mature cyclical here rather than a real growth rocket, even if the valuation suggests this in a peer comparison. And in my view, the business is much more cyclical than the chart currently suggests.

On paper, it is a well-managed company (ROE > 30%) with clear weaknesses, but these lie beneath the surface and, for me, tend to argue against an investment.

But, as always, absolutely exciting because I've never heard of it before.
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Exciting and promising. With a market capitalization of € 2.x billion, I only stumbled over the tradable volume of just under 10 million. That's a strange constellation ...!
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Thank you, great as always!

I think that the share is currently almost fairly valued (approx. € 255). However, a recovery in aluminum prices could provide a boost.

I see limited upside potential over the next 12 months due to the economic risk in the European construction industry. But let's see what the final 2025 annual results on 26.03 (?!) have to say. In addition, the Executive Board's statements on the order backlog for the summer half-year should also be interesting.

A sustained increase in the EBIT margin to over 15% would be great and a clear BUY. Further interest rate cuts would also be good for the construction industry ✌🏼
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@Anderle I think it's also a good way to diversify from all the tech stocks. And you don't find that many dividend stocks in the industry either
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Is Alupack ag one of them? They still have a plant here in Werdohl.
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@Hotte1909 Aluprof and Alupol
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@Hotte1909 They have a plant in Ukraine that also serves the construction industry. With peace, there could perhaps be potential again
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Thank you very much for highlighting it my dear 😊 I see a lot of growth here in the future. Really interesting, thank you!
@Tenbagger2024
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@Max095 had actually tagged you in the post, but it was then denied to me
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@Tenbagger2024 strange, do you know why? How are you otherwise?
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@Max095 Yes so far, and with you my dear.
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@Tenbagger2024 it fits so far thanks :)
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@Max095 Have you found a strategy for your portfolio?
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@Tenbagger2024 I let my savings plans continue as described in my post, and hope that I can sell my altcoins at some point without a loss ...
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@Max095 good idea, so do you have enough stocks for now? because otherwise I'll mark you for dividend stocks
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@Max095 You can also have your portfolio analyzed by @Raketentoni. But he is very strict
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@Tenbagger2024 I'd rather not. My portfolio is garbage. I have totally gambled away with the altcoins. I'm afraid it will fall even further
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@Max095 just try to rake off what was. And build up a good strategy now. And there will certainly still be surprises. I was down on Palfinger for a very long time and had already written it off. Last week I sold the share at a profit. I was heavily in the red with Lithium, but the stock is slowly getting back into the green. I think you wanted too much too quickly with altcoins. Our dear @stefan_21 has always written caution with these coins. I am still in the red with the Bitcoin ETP and Coinbaise, but I still believe in Bitcoin in the long term. That's why I'm staying relaxed. It doesn't bother me much, because other stocks are doing quite well. The important thing is what the bottom line is. There's a lot of red in an ETF, but you can't see it there.
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My dear. You're always smarter in the end
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