Good morning,
I was eating at McDonalds last night and I'm always amazed that the restaurants are always full.
So I thought I'd ask the AI about the stock.
I'm invested myself and I'm happy when I see something like this and then my dividends fly into my account.
For me, it's a defensive share for the ages. The McDonalds brand always seems to be a winner.
Fundamental picture
McDonald's generated sales of just under USD 25 billion in 2024 and a profit of around USD 8.2 billion. The operating margin is well over 40% - exceptionally high for the restaurant sector. The Group has a market capitalization of around USD 216 billion, making it one of the absolute heavyweights in the consumer sector.
A large part of its strength lies in the franchise model. Over 90 % of the restaurants are operated by franchisees. For McDonald's, this means relatively low direct operating costs, but high and predictable income from rents and fees. This makes the balance sheet less susceptible to economic fluctuations.
Dividend policy
The share has been paying a reliable dividend for decades and has regularly increased it. The most recent quarterly dividend was USD 1.77 per share, i.e. around USD 7.08 p.a. At the current share price level (around USD 300), this results in a dividend yield of around 2.3%. The payout ratio is around 60 %, so there is still enough room for future increases.
Chart technique
The McDonald's chart shows a clear upward trend over a 10-year period. In 2015, the share was still at around USD 100, today it is trading at around USD 300 - a tripling in a decade.
- 52-week range: USD 245 - 302
- All-time high: approx. USD 302 (summer 2025)
- Current level: ~ USD 295 (as at the beginning of October 2025)
In the short term, the share has been consolidating slightly since the summer, but continues to run above important support levels. The 200-day line runs at around USD 280, which currently serves as the first relevant support. A breakout above the all-time high of USD 302 could clear the way towards USD 320-330.
Valuation
The P/E ratio (price/earnings) is around 26, the price/book ratio is over 10 - i.e. not a "value share", but a classic quality share with a premium. The market is paying for the stability, cash flows and dividend continuity. The forward P/E ratio (based on expected earnings) is slightly lower, i.e. in the range of 23-24.
Current catalysts
- Expansion: The plan is to significantly increase the number of stores worldwide, particularly in high-growth markets.
- Marketing: Classics such as the Monopoly game and seasonal promotions drive traffic and app usage.
- Digitalization: Mobile orders and loyalty programs increase customer loyalty to the system.
Risks
- Rising costs (wages, raw materials) could squeeze margins.
- Regulatory issues (sustainability, packaging) can lead to additional costs.
- Competition from fast-casual chains.
Conclusion
McDonald's remains a top pick for investors looking for defensive strength, brand power and dividend reliability. In chart terms, we are close to the all-time high - a breakout above it would be a new buy signal. If you take a long-term view, you can see setbacks towards USD 280 as a buying opportunity. The share is not cheaply valued in the short term, but the story remains intact: Growth via expansion, strong margins, and a brand that works in crises as well as in boom phases.
ℹ️ Information without guarantee | Source: ChatGPT
No investment advice - only information and own opinion. Please check for yourself before making any decisions.