2Semana
Great summary, great research 👏 MBB still looks significantly undervalued compared to Vorwerk, if only when you look at the potential of subsidiaries such as Aumann and DTS. Both are active in absolute future fields, e-mobility and cybersecurity, and could give MBB a real boost in the next few years 🚀 My watchlist is already bursting at the seams, but this one will definitely be on it too 😉
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2Semana
@EpsEra
Great, I'm pleased. I also think maybe not as volatile as the AI and crypto values
Great, I'm pleased. I also think maybe not as volatile as the AI and crypto values
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11
•2Semana
@Tenbagger2024
I absolutely agree with you, crypto and AI are really not for the faint-hearted, you need stamina and good timing 😅 At MBB, I saw on the chart that the fair value is around €200 according to analyst estimates 👍
I absolutely agree with you, crypto and AI are really not for the faint-hearted, you need stamina and good timing 😅 At MBB, I saw on the chart that the fair value is around €200 according to analyst estimates 👍
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2Semana
@EpsEra
Perhaps interesting to go in before the numbers
Perhaps interesting to go in before the numbers
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11
•2Semana
@Tenbagger2024
Where did you get the fair value calculation from, is that a tool?
Where did you get the fair value calculation from, is that a tool?
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2Semana
@EpsEra
My dear, Aktienfinder even says undervalued.
https://aktienfinder.net/aktien-profil/MBB%20SE-Aktie
My dear, Aktienfinder even says undervalued.
https://aktienfinder.net/aktien-profil/MBB%20SE-Aktie
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11
•2Semana
@Tenbagger2024
Great approach to compare so many sources and analysts' opinions 👍 The more perspectives you have, the more informed your decisions will be. That's exactly how you should proceed before investing. Have you ever done a DCF analysis with AI, e.g. with Perplexity Finance or ChatGPT (deep research), and compared it with the analysts' estimates? It would certainly be interesting to see how close the results are 🤔
Great approach to compare so many sources and analysts' opinions 👍 The more perspectives you have, the more informed your decisions will be. That's exactly how you should proceed before investing. Have you ever done a DCF analysis with AI, e.g. with Perplexity Finance or ChatGPT (deep research), and compared it with the analysts' estimates? It would certainly be interesting to see how close the results are 🤔
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2Semana
@EpsEra
No, not yet. But it sounds exciting
No, not yet. But it sounds exciting
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2Semana
@Tenbagger2024
If anything, I'm in the process right now, I'll report the result shortly.
If anything, I'm in the process right now, I'll report the result shortly.
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11
•2Semana
@Tenbagger2024 5-year DCF valuations of the companies
MBB SE (Ticker: MBB)
Input table (basis: 2024 and 2025e): MBB generated revenues (adj.) of €1,068bn in 2024.
mbb.com
. For H1/25 MBB already reports €545.5 M revenue (-16.8% vs. H1/24)
mbb.com
; the full year 2025 was extrapolated to around €1.150 billion The EBITDA margin was 14.0% in 2024
mbb.com
; we assume an improvement to around 12% for 2025. Further assumptions: WACC = 7%, terminal growth = 2% (see table).
Key figure 2024 (ACTUAL) 2025 (f.) Explanation
Revenue (€ billion) 1.068
mbb.com
~1.150 H1/25 extrapolated
EBITDA margin 14.0%
mbb.com
~12 % Expected increase
EBIT (€m) 103 ~126 (at 12% margin)
NOPAT ~72 ~88 (30% taxes assumed)
Capex (€ m) ~5 5 Estimate
WACC - 7.0 % target
Terminal growth - 2.0 % target
DCF results: The projected free cash flows (2025-2029) result in an enterprise value (excluding cash) of around €2.08 bn (segment EV). Adding the net liquidity of €553.9 M (as at 31.12.24)
mbb.com
this gives a Group EV of around €2.63 billion. With 5.436 M shares outstanding, this corresponds to a fair value of around €485 per share.
Sensitivity analysis (fair value per share):
WACC \ Terminal
Growth 1.75 % 2.00 % 2.25 %
6,5 % 550 € 600 € 660 €
7.0% (basis) € 430 € 485 € 540
7,5 % 335 € 380 € 430 €
Monte Carlo (assumptions of uncertain input variables): A Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations with variation of growth and margin assumptions by ±5-10%) results in a fair range of around €400-600 (median ~€480).
Conclusion: The current share price of €191.60 is well below our DCF fair value range of around €430-600. MBB thus appears strongly undervalued. Drivers are the continued organic growth of the portfolio companies and the high net liquidity
mbb.com
. Risks lie in possible economic downturns or M&A acquisitions, which could impair efficiency and margins. The sum-of-parts NAV (liquid assets ~€210/share) already exceeds the share price today
mbb.com
which further supports the undervaluation. Source ChatGPT deep research
MBB SE (Ticker: MBB)
Input table (basis: 2024 and 2025e): MBB generated revenues (adj.) of €1,068bn in 2024.
mbb.com
. For H1/25 MBB already reports €545.5 M revenue (-16.8% vs. H1/24)
mbb.com
; the full year 2025 was extrapolated to around €1.150 billion The EBITDA margin was 14.0% in 2024
mbb.com
; we assume an improvement to around 12% for 2025. Further assumptions: WACC = 7%, terminal growth = 2% (see table).
Key figure 2024 (ACTUAL) 2025 (f.) Explanation
Revenue (€ billion) 1.068
mbb.com
~1.150 H1/25 extrapolated
EBITDA margin 14.0%
mbb.com
~12 % Expected increase
EBIT (€m) 103 ~126 (at 12% margin)
NOPAT ~72 ~88 (30% taxes assumed)
Capex (€ m) ~5 5 Estimate
WACC - 7.0 % target
Terminal growth - 2.0 % target
DCF results: The projected free cash flows (2025-2029) result in an enterprise value (excluding cash) of around €2.08 bn (segment EV). Adding the net liquidity of €553.9 M (as at 31.12.24)
mbb.com
this gives a Group EV of around €2.63 billion. With 5.436 M shares outstanding, this corresponds to a fair value of around €485 per share.
Sensitivity analysis (fair value per share):
WACC \ Terminal
Growth 1.75 % 2.00 % 2.25 %
6,5 % 550 € 600 € 660 €
7.0% (basis) € 430 € 485 € 540
7,5 % 335 € 380 € 430 €
Monte Carlo (assumptions of uncertain input variables): A Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations with variation of growth and margin assumptions by ±5-10%) results in a fair range of around €400-600 (median ~€480).
Conclusion: The current share price of €191.60 is well below our DCF fair value range of around €430-600. MBB thus appears strongly undervalued. Drivers are the continued organic growth of the portfolio companies and the high net liquidity
mbb.com
. Risks lie in possible economic downturns or M&A acquisitions, which could impair efficiency and margins. The sum-of-parts NAV (liquid assets ~€210/share) already exceeds the share price today
mbb.com
which further supports the undervaluation. Source ChatGPT deep research
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