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Waymo vs. Tesla - Why Tesla is rising despite a slump in e-car sales.

$TSLA (+10,24%)
$GOOGL (-1,98%)

3. operational & economies of scale

Waymo operates the fleet itself. The high capital costs are cushioned by 24/7 utilization, but only open up where HD cards exist. Passenger fares recently averaged ≈ USD 11 per mile, reflecting the capital commitment. The Last Driver License Holder...
Tesla is planning a franchise-like model: own Cybercabs + privately owned Teslas in a shared "Tesla Network". Elon Musk cites long-term operating costs of $0.20 - $0.40/mile - around a tenth of today's ride-hailing rates - but bases this on assumptions, not real fleet numbers. Reuters

Scale efficiency/risk profile

Waymo

Higher redundancy → expensive hardware; hardware costs dominate production price; scaling by area because mapping is expensive.

Technologically mature (thousands of paid trips daily), but capital-intensive.

Tesla

"Vision-only" saves LiDAR (7 000 - 10 000 USD +) and reduces power consumption & weight. Gigacasting manufacturing and own chip further reduce BOM.

Price and unit cost advantage plausible, but Robotaxi service does not yet exist; regulatory approval uncertain.

In short:

Looking purely at production costs, Tesla's camera approach looks much more efficient (≈ 30 k USD vs. > 100 k USD per vehicle). The downside: the figure is a target value - the vehicle is not yet on the road. Waymo is in commercial use today, but has not yet pushed the cost curve to Tesla's level.

For investors or cities that today robotaxis today, Waymo is the system that works, but is more expensive. If you look ahead to 2026+ and accept higher technical risks, Tesla's robotaxi could achieve significantly lower unit and operating costs with the same passenger volume.

16 Comentários

Marcel@Kytez

I agree purely on the basis of the figures.

I was on vacation in California for 4 weeks and drove Waymo regularly in San Francisco and LA. In SF I visited the Tesla Training Center and test drove the latest Cybertruck extensively. Of course, I also used FSD a lot.

Now to the point:
Waymo is absolutely impressive. You feel 100% safe. The vehicles really recognize everything. Every kerb, every tiny object that's in the way, every object behind other objects that a camera can't see. And behaves incredibly intelligently. If you're at a red light and a truck turning off doesn't have enough room, Waymo (if possible) backs up slightly and makes room, etc. You feel safer than with any human driver and I could really relax.

Tesla's FSD, on the other hand, feels very one-dimensional. I didn't really feel safe. My attention was always on the traffic and I had everything ready to intervene. The car drives much less intelligently, kerbs were sometimes scraped.

Conclusion:
I think a lot will depend on how safe you feel as a person. I doubt whether prices alone are the deciding factor.
Furthermore, I have not read that the rides are expensive (compared with Uber). I can only disagree with that. I have compared more often. Waymo usually only starts at around 10 dollars. Rides of less than a mile are therefore not worthwhile in terms of price (but who calls a cab for 1 mile?😅). Beyond that, Waymo has always been significantly cheaper than Uber. 30 min ride from Santa Monica to downtown LA, for example, for just under 30$. Uber was around 60$.

I think Waymo is taking the right step with its technology and the feeling of safety will be decisive. What use is FSD if you can't relax and do something else on the side but watch the traffic and remain ready to intervene?

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N@Khlmysee

The only difference is that Musk only builds dream castles.

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@Khlmysee Why? So far, he has delivered everything - even if with the delays that are inevitable with such projects (they were still much less than the construction of Berlin Airport 🤣🤷‍♂️)

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N@Khlmysee

@PaulPKHe has been promising to introduce autonomous driving year after year since 2019. This is with the deliver?

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@Khlmysee Yes - that's being fine-tuned. He has delivered e-cars and satellite internet etc.

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N@Khlmysee

@PaulPK It's just stupid that Sat-Internet is not Tesla.

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Björn@investor_559

I think Tesla has too many sources of error with the camera system, what happens in wet areas and in cold areas, will the camera-based system still work? In my opinion, the last mile is still missing in terms of safety in order to be able to drive completely without a control person. And fine-tuning is always the most time-consuming part

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@Khlmysee "Musk only builds castles in the air" - SpaceX is Musk

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N@Khlmysee

@PaulPK have to stay on the subject of autonomous driving.

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@investor_559 Well, it is already many times better than humans...

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@Khlmysee It was about whether Musk delivers or builds castles in the air... He will also deliver when it comes to autonomous driving.

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Luca@Lvca

@investor_559 With over 6 billion kilometers driven with FSD, the accident rate was ten times lower than that of an average person. FSD Unsupervised (fully autonomous driving) is planned for June in Texas.

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Ver todas as 2 restantes respostas

Phil R.@ruetph1

The whole price comparison is currently a comparison of small series vs. large series. A mass-produced radar can be bought for low double digits, a LIDAR for three digits. Tesla refers to the fact that humans only use sight and concludes that cameras are sufficient. Radar has a real advantage in poor visibility conditions (e.g. rain) at the latest. LiDAR is just as weak as cameras when visibility is obstructed by rain or snow. I do not believe that the winner of the race for autonomous driving can already be identified today. The field of participants is also much larger than Waymo and Tesla.

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connorc432@connorc432

I've not experienced a Waymo ride yet, but I have used FSD and it is not ready yet. My dad was using FSD and was hit on a highway, the FSD freaked out and swerved the car off the highway into a ditch and totaled it. The Tesla then automatically wiped its hard drive and wouldn't let my dad access the footage from the accident to give to insurance. I don't trust camera's only. LIDAR isn't perfect either but I'd rather have two imperfect systems than just one. LIDAR costs will come down significantly as well in the next few years.

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