My dears, we @Semos25 , @SemiGrowth remain invested.
AppLovin (APP) is at a historic turning point. With its inclusion in the S&P 500, a wave of bullish analysts' voices and the launch of the self-service tool Axon Ads Manager and Axon.ai on October 1, the company has opened up the billion-dollar market in global e-commerce advertising. After a brilliant share price rally and fending off a short-seller attack, CEO Adam Foroughi is now focusing on growth through AI. Analysts are confident that the share will continue to soar.
Business model and market position
AppLovin began its corporate history as a developer and publisher of mobile games, but has undergone a fundamental transformation in recent years. Today, the company sees itself primarily as a provider of AdTech and performance marketing solutions. Advertisers can use its platform to reach target groups worldwide, monetize their reach and scale the growth of their apps or online stores. With tools such as AppDiscovery, which relies on AI-supported advertising optimization, and MAX, a monetization solution for publishers, AppLovin is positioning itself as a leading provider in the field of digital advertising. While the gaming segment has long been the foundation of the business, expansion into the non-gaming and, in particular, the e-commerce sector is now coming to the fore.
Launch on October 1 - Axon Ads Manager as a scaling turbo
On October 1, 2025, AppLovin will launch its self-service tool Axon Ads Manager for non-gaming advertisers, replacing the manual onboarding that was previously required. The portal enables e-commerce and other advertisers to plan, manage and optimize campaigns directly. This makes access much simpler, more global and more scalable. For AppLovin, this is the first step towards directly addressing international customers and massively expanding its reach. While the customer base was previously limited to a few hundred advertisers, potentially thousands can now sign up independently and use the AI-supported performance advertising. Analysts such as Morgan Stanley see the launch as decisive proof of the scalability of the non-gaming advertising model and expect the customer base to multiply and the segment to make a significant contribution to revenue growth in future.
Axon.ai - The AI engine behind AppLovin
Axon.ai is the AI-powered recommendation engine behind AppDiscovery and uses predictive algorithms to evaluate advertising impressions in real time in order to optimize customers' return targets. Advertisers set targets, Axon.ai analyzes device and interaction data as well as feedback from the bidding process and controls automated bids based on this, without processing sensitive personal data. As usage grows, the model improves continuously as more data enables more precise predictions, creating a self-reinforcing scaling effect. With Axon 2.0, this technology is now set to unfold its impact beyond the gaming segment in global e-commerce.
Short seller attack in March 2025
In March 2025, AppLovin was targeted by aggressive short sellers who pushed the share price down from over USD 530 to USD 200. They questioned the sustainability of the e-commerce business, criticized the attribution and questioned the pixel technology. CEO Adam Foroughi reacted openly and emphasized that Pixel fulfilled the same standard functions as Google or Meta. He also referred to the rapid growth of the e-commerce segment, which had reached a billion-dollar level within a few months, and emphasized AppLovin's ability to achieve in quarters what others achieve in a decade. The markets followed this view. The share has recovered impressively since then.
(My dears, this is where I kept my cool and remained loyal to the company).
Seal of quality through S&P 500 inclusion and analyst praise
On September 22, 2025, AppLovin was included in the prestigious S&P 500 Index, a seal of quality that confirms the company's compliance with strict criteria on market capitalization, liquidity and profitability and at the same time ensures greater visibility and capital inflows from index funds. At the same time, analyst firms are outdoing each other with optimistic assessments. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to USD 750, UBS even to USD 810, Piper Sandler sees USD 740 and Phillip Securities USD 725, while Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Oppenheimer and Benchmark also issued clear buy recommendations. Expectations thus range between USD 500 and USD 800 and underpin the assessment that AppLovin not only offers short-term price potential, but can also achieve annual earnings growth of around 34% in the long term.
AppLovin on the verge of the next growth spurt
AppLovin has made the transition from gaming publisher to AI-driven AdTech specialist and is clearly focusing on the e-commerce market, which is significantly larger than the original gaming segment. The launch of the self-service tool and the further development of Axon.ai open up enormous scaling potential. The inclusion in the S&P 500 and numerous positive analyst opinions confirm the strategic strength. This gives AppLovin the opportunity to establish itself as a leading player in global e-commerce advertising, even if the path remains highly dynamic and volatile.
By A. Wimbauer - Updated on 30.09.25
