4D·

Is that a Tenbagger

Good morning dear community,

Today, right after my breakfast (it's now 10:30 here), I thought of you again and found an assessment of a favorite $NU (+0,44%) that I would like to pass on to you.

I am no longer invested at the moment, but I do see long-term potential and think that it could become a tenbagger for the buy&hold group.

But you need patience. I don't have the time component, so I won't be investing at the moment.


Aktienwelt360 - You might think that the search for the next Tenbagger is child's play. A few analyst forecasts, a crisp stock - and a profit of 1,000 % seems within reach.

As experienced investors, we of course know that it's rarely that easy. But with Nu Holdings (WKN: A3C82G), the Brazilian fintech star, the idea seems particularly great. After all, the company not only promises growth, but also fundamental change in the South American banking sector. Even Warren Buffett praised the digital bank not so long ago.


The Nu Holdings business model

Nu Holdings has managed to do what few have managed to do: attract millions of customers to a lean, digital banking model. Yes, you could describe Nubank as a South American N26, but with a different, still limited regional focus.

In a region where traditional banks often stand out with high fees, complicated structures and low customer satisfaction, Nubank scores with a user-friendly app, favorable conditions and high transparency.

With over 122 million customers, the fintech company has long since exceeded a critical mass. This enables economies of scale and the development of new business areas - from loans and insurance to investments.

The business has come at the right time, as digital banks are booming and Nubank is a first mover in South America, particularly in Brazil, with an extraordinarily large footprint. Profits are already substantial, as the second quarter shows with a surplus of USD 637 million. Sales growth is exceptionally high at almost 30%.


Growth opportunities and risks of the digital bank

The idea that Nu Holdings could now become the next Tenbagger is based on two factors: firstly, the huge addressable market in Latin America and secondly, the above-average growth of recent years. While some traditional banks are stagnating, Nubank is growing at double-digit rates in terms of customers and revenues.

In addition, the dynamics of the emerging markets should not be ignored due to their demographic development. Shares from these countries generally have a higher risk/reward profile. A possible strategy here could be as follows: Buy, leave it and see what has become of it after 15 years.

Nevertheless, the risks should not be underestimated, as the credit business is susceptible to macroeconomic fluctuations - especially in a region characterized by inflation, currency turbulence and political uncertainty. Latin America has seen a lot of this in the past.


The time and valuation factor

Whether Nu Holdings actually offers a return potential of 1,000 % therefore depends not only on the business model, but also on the time horizon and the political and economic conditions. Such a multiplication presupposes that the company maintains its current growth momentum for years and scales profitably.

I am optimistic in this respect, even though Warren Buffett quickly revised his position. However, this need not be taken negatively, as Buffett is considered to be price sensitive. In the long term, however, Nu Holdings can easily grow into its valuation. The P/E ratio could have fallen to below 15 as early as 2027.

The article Dies ist die nächste Tenbagger-Aktie mit 1.000% Gewinn!? was first published on Aktienwelt360.

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14 Comentários

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My risks:
Customer growth → + 4.3m new customers in Q1; total ~ 118.6m is a bit too slow for a tenbagger for me

Sales growth → + 40% YoY (CC)

Efficiency → costs per active customer < 1 USD are positive points for now, but the current ARPU is catastrophic and the South American risks such as (currency & corruption as current as never before)

Problems / risks

Margin pressure → Net interest margin slightly declining due to higher financing costs

High valuation → P/E ~ 32, price/sales and price/book at a high level

Growth rate → Q/Q sales growth weaker than expected

Credit risks → rising NPLs possible in case of economic slowdown in Brazil & Co.

It is important to consider that the tenbaggers in the portfolio are always companies that are more favorable with more growth and I prefer to expand these than to take in a company with less potential and this is NU in my opinion.
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@Aktienfox but the fact that customer growth is significantly slower this year was already clearly and openly communicated by Nu at the end of last year and also makes sense. They are currently scaling so that the platform can handle these immense customer masses. We are talking about over 120 million customers here. Compared to TR, which has around 8 million customers, that's insane. Next comes the expansion into Central America, where Mexico is particularly strategically important. If you succeed there, the door to the USA will be open.
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@Aktienfox Well, the author also writes in the article about buying now and then leaving it for 15 years and only then looking again. That's not an alternative for me. But in the long term, it could of course become a Tenbagger.
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@Aktienfox Which one do you see at the front that you are removing?
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@Multibagger Hims, Iren, Rocketlab are my three biggest addresses that are still being actively expanded + they already make up 30% of the portfolio!
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@Aktienfox OK, thanks. I also have $RKLB and $Iren. $HIMS I had sold just below ATH with 85%. But I think I'll get back in on the next dip below €40.
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@Multibagger Does a knock-out certificate make sense at $RKLB?
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@Thomasgr it has quite high volas, so you would have to choose a KO with a wide gap and smaller leverage, or set a narrow SL, which will probably knock you out every 2-3 days if you keep getting back in
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@Multibagger Okay, I'll give it a try
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@Aktienfox With the exception of Hims, all of them are rated more than sporty. If there's a lack of growth somewhere, the Tenbagger🫣 won't work either.
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Also read the article, found the perspective quite interessant👍🏻
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Why are you writing now? Now the all-time high is 13 euros
Why didn't you write anything at 4 euros in 2023?
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@Valenciana because the analysis I sent was only published today. And I have many abilities, but unfortunately no clairvoyant ones.
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Many here have a purchase price of less than 10 euros, there was often enough about it. I also read somewhere that someone thought NU would reach the 20 euro mark by the end of 2016, I'll hold on for now and see how long 😉✌🏼
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