5Mês·

Planet Lab

It’s incredible how far $PL (+0,77%) has come. It continues to benefit from a speculative uptrend, which I believe is driven primarily by retail investors. The KPIs are terrible, but the market doesn’t seem to care — particularly:

Market cap: $13 billion
Revenue: $300 million (43x revenue multiple)
EBITDA: negative $50 million
Free cash flow: just $50 million

What am I missing that the market is pricing in?

It’s currently on my short-selling watchlist.

7 Comentários

Yoshika 🦋.@Yoshika

5Mês

The market doesn't price what a company is. It prices what it could become. As long as enough people believe the story, the stock goes up. EBITDA is irrelevant until it isn't.

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Yoshika 🦋.@Yoshika

5Mês

@Yoshika
Only publicly traded pure-play Earth observation company. 200+ satellites. Government and defense contracts. That's the story the market is buying

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Gaetano V.@Gaetanoval

5Mês

@Yoshika True, EBITDA is not particularly relevant in this case, but it helps illustrate that we are dealing with an entity with negative profitability that is burning cash. Beyond that, exactly — the increase in value is driven purely by popular belief.

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Yoshika 🦋.@Yoshika

5Mês

@Yoshika Numbers are catching up by the way. EBITDA turned positive last quarter, $900M backlog, NATO contracts.

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Gaetano V.@Gaetanoval

5Mês

@Yoshika Exactly, the market is paying a whopping $13B for a company with a backlog of just $900M and rather weak cash flows. Sure, there are the defense and NATO contracts, but the core of my question is this: is the market pricing it correctly?

To me, it seems the valuation reflects more retail-driven euphoria around the space than the company’s actual market potential.

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Yoshika 🦋.@Yoshika

5Mês

@Gaetanoval
That's what they said before the 10x. And before the zero. Nobody knows which this is but $14B for $900M backlog leaves exactly zero margin for disappointment.

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Gaetano V.@Gaetanoval

5Mês

@Yoshika We’ll see how much of those $900M remains as profit margin and cash on hand 💸

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