Hello my dears,
inspired by the wallstreetOnline article contained in the post, I have sent Juan to AppLovin $APP (+5,92%) to AppLovin.
I myself am invested in AppLovin and will remain invested. Because I see the sell-off here as unjustified due to the fear that software is endangered by AI. Personally, I see the sell-off more as an opportunity.
I have already made and seen several company presentations, but such a green profit flow chart I have only seen very rarely.
Margins that make the margin king burst into tears of joy.
All good reasons for me to stay invested.
The company is repeatedly burdened by short-seller reports, but these have never been confirmed so far.
Therefore, the share requires good nerves, but on balance has given me a lot of pleasure so far.
How do you see the share, is it too volatile for you, or do you think now is a good time to buy?
AppLovin can look back on a spectacular performance. In 2024, the share price exploded by over 700% and finally peaked at almost USD 750 in 2025, making the company the top performer in the S&P 500 at times. The driving force behind this success is a highly efficient software platform. It uses artificial intelligence to bring advertisers and app developers together and display advertising in mobile games so precisely that profits and sales increased massively.
The crash - Serious allegations of fraud by CapitalWatch
The euphoria came to an abrupt end with a report by short seller CapitalWatch. In it, the major shareholder Hao Tang was accused of being involved in financial fraud and money laundering with links to criminal syndicates in South East Asia. AppLovin was even described as a money laundering machine. These massive accusations deeply unsettled investors. Fearing criminal involvement, capital fled and the share price plummeted by around 50% from its high.
The turnaround - apology and share price jump
However, CapitalWatch rowed back. In a public apology on the X platform, the short seller admitted that the alleged links between Hao Tang and criminal organizations were false, including the incorrect attribution of a court ruling. CapitalWatch officially withdrew the passages about Tang, even though the financial structure continues to be viewed critically. The stock market breathed a sigh of relief as the worst-case scenario was off the table and the share price immediately shot up by over 13%.
AppLovin bounces up to 523$ after figures - but then this happens!
AppLovin exceeds expectations in terms of turnover, profit and margin. After a weak start to the year, investors sense a turnaround. The share initially explodes in the post-market, then gives up all its gains and is now in the red.
Revenue in the first quarter of the 2026 financial year climbed by 59% to 1.84 billion US dollars. Adjusted, AppLovin earned 3.56 US dollars per share. According to FactSet had only expected revenue of USD 1.77 billion and USD 3.49 per share.
The operating margin had an even stronger impact: adjusted EBITDA rose by 66 percent to 1.56 billion US dollars, with a margin of 85 percent.
This is where the real share price driver lies. AppLovin shows that its AI-based advertising platform continues to grow highly profitably. The company is forecasting revenue of USD 1.92 to 1.95 billion for the current second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach 1.62 to 1.65 billion US dollars.
Shareholders are also receiving a positive signal: AppLovin bought back 2.2 million of its own shares for 1 billion US dollars in the quarter.
The share price on the Nasdaq went on a veritable rollercoaster ride after the close of trading: At times it rose by around 12 percent to USD 523, but then slumped again to USD 447, before recovering to USD 500 and is currently trading slightly down at USD 467.18 per share (as of 06:55 CEST).
However, the story is not entirely free of shadows. The shares ended the first quarter down 44 percent, the biggest decline in the S&P 500. Since the beginning of the year, they had fallen 30.4 percent by Wednesday, but were still up 54.5 percent over 12 months. Reports of an SEC investigation and short-seller attacks had weighed on confidence.
The new figures now deliver what investors wanted to see: Growth, margin, outlook and buybacks. For AppLovin, this could be the moment when skepticism turns back into fantasy.
Juan's conclusion on the key financial figures (AppLovin 2025-2028)
(short, clear, investor-focused - just the way you want it from Juan)
"AppLovin delivers a picture-book financial profile: explosive economies of scale, increasing profitability and virtually debt-free from 2025. Revenue is growing at a strong double-digit rate across the board, but the really impressive thing is the operating leverage: EBIT and net profit are growing faster than revenue every year. Margins are at a level rarely seen in the software sector - EBIT margins of over 75% and FCF margins of over 70% are absolutely exceptional. Free cash flow continues to grow steadily and remains the key value driver. The ROE is extremely high, but falls as expected with increasing net liquidity - without weakening the investment story. Overall, AppLovin is a highly profitable, capital-light model with clear visibility and strong cash conversion. A premium setup for long-term investors."
"AppLovin is on fire: strong growth, crazy margins, endless cash. Debt-free from 2025, ROE in overdrive. This is high-performance software economics - clean, scalable, brutally efficient."
Market value 157,404
Number of shares (in thousands) 335,950
Date of publication 11.02.2026
Juan's conclusion on the valuation ratios (hoodie edition)
*"AppLovin's valuation looks like a textbook case of a high growth player slowly slipping into the 'respectable' valuation zone. FCF yield is rising every year like a clean level-up skill tree - from almost nothing to over 6%. The P/E ratio is simultaneously falling from lunar levels to something you can actually build into a model without a headache.
The P/B ratio? Initially completely absurdly high, but it normalizes every year as equity finally catches up. And the PEG below 1 from 2026 - that's basically the hoodie-thumb-up moment for growth investors.
In short, the valuation is getting cheaper while the business is getting stronger. That's the kind of setup that makes me pull my hoodie a little tighter and say, 'Yeah, that's a really good price/power ratio'. "*
⭐ Overall tenbagger score: 41 / 45
→ Extremely strong profile
→ High-quality compounder
→ Scalable, profitable, becoming more favorable
→ Tenbagger candidate absolutely realistic in the next 5-7 years
Juan's brief summary of the Tenbagger matrix (hoodie style)
"This is one of those rare cases where growth, margins and valuation all point in the same direction. AppLovin is like a high-performance engine that runs more efficiently every year and gets cheaper at the same time. If you're looking for a structural tenbagger - this is one of the cleanest setups you'll find in the tech sector right now."
Performance
1 week +1.86 %
1 month +19.77 %
6 months -24.42 %
1 year +38.01 %
3 years +2,559.19 %
5 years +718.29 %
PRICE: € 388.85 11.05.2026 at 14:17 (@Semos25 )
