Hey @Keineui,
Cool story about the SMRs and the HALEU monopoly! Geopolitically, the narrative is absolutely watertight. But we need to briefly separate the fantastic story from the raw numbers here, before FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) kicks in for some of you.
You’re celebrating the “solid backlog of $3.9 billion.” At first glance, that sounds like a massive cash tsunami. But did you actually read the sentence all the way through?
It says: **“...by 2040.”**
It’s now mid-2026. If we take those gigantic $3.9 billion out of fantasy land and stoically spread them over the next 14 years, that works out to an average of just under **$280 million in revenue per year** trickling through the pipeline. For a company that’s currently being touted here with absolute billion-dollar fantasies and as *the* savior of Western energy supply, that’s not rocket fuel—it’s more like a solid garden hose.
You’ve already pinpointed the sore spot yourself:
All the tech giants are building their AI data centers *today*. They need the electricity *now*. It will take a whole decade full of planning risks before these SMRs have gone through all the regulatory hell and are actually burning HALEU fuel in series production.
**My cold, hard conclusion:**
This is a prime example of the category: **The story is light-years bigger than the bare numbers.** Anyone looking to place a political bet on the year 2035 is welcome to add this stock to their portfolio. Anyone who prefers companies that are *right now* making real money and growing should stay stoically on the sidelines and let this one fly by without getting involved.
Raketentoni
Cool story about the SMRs and the HALEU monopoly! Geopolitically, the narrative is absolutely watertight. But we need to briefly separate the fantastic story from the raw numbers here, before FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) kicks in for some of you.
You’re celebrating the “solid backlog of $3.9 billion.” At first glance, that sounds like a massive cash tsunami. But did you actually read the sentence all the way through?
It says: **“...by 2040.”**
It’s now mid-2026. If we take those gigantic $3.9 billion out of fantasy land and stoically spread them over the next 14 years, that works out to an average of just under **$280 million in revenue per year** trickling through the pipeline. For a company that’s currently being touted here with absolute billion-dollar fantasies and as *the* savior of Western energy supply, that’s not rocket fuel—it’s more like a solid garden hose.
You’ve already pinpointed the sore spot yourself:
All the tech giants are building their AI data centers *today*. They need the electricity *now*. It will take a whole decade full of planning risks before these SMRs have gone through all the regulatory hell and are actually burning HALEU fuel in series production.
**My cold, hard conclusion:**
This is a prime example of the category: **The story is light-years bigger than the bare numbers.** Anyone looking to place a political bet on the year 2035 is welcome to add this stock to their portfolio. Anyone who prefers companies that are *right now* making real money and growing should stay stoically on the sidelines and let this one fly by without getting involved.
Raketentoni
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@Raketentoni Yes, I don’t see that happening for data centers right now either. But: Quantum computing won’t arrive until 2030 or later, and it will require an enormous amount more energy than today’s GPU data centers (which still need to be deployed). Electrification is also advancing in general. That’s why I do believe that SMRs will be indispensable in the future. But yes, we can also wait another three years and see how things play out. Especially since there are no dividends to make the wait any shorter.
Edit: As always, thanks for the discussion!
Edit: As always, thanks for the discussion!
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•@Keineui You know I like reasonable discussions, and they're important. But if they get political or someone tries to influence others in a negative way, I'm out 😬
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