In my opinion, these are buy prices for the monopoly in EUV and high-NA technology.
Key investment thesis: The artificial intelligence megatrend will not only continue over the next ten years, it will even accelerate.
The conclusion of my discounted cash flow analysis of $ASML: (-0.19%)
The analysis results in a fair value of € 695.8 per share in the base scenario, which is above the current spot price of around € 592.0 and indicates a potential undervaluation.
The valuation range resulting from the bull scenario (€ 829.4) and the bear scenario (€ 567.6) underlines the sensitivity of the model to the underlying assumptions.
The key value drivers are the long-term sales growth rate (CAGR), which is largely dependent on the further adaptation of artificial intelligence (AI), and the development of the EBIT margin.
The main risks to the valuation are geopolitical tensions, in particular extended export controls to China, which could impact the DUV business, and the inherent cyclicality of the semiconductor industry. Management's recent warnings of uncertain demand in 2026 2 reflect these cyclical risks, while the long-term growth forecasts to 2030 underpin the enormous potential of the AI megatrend.
