4D·

Has the cyclical peak been reached?

As I just mentioned, I used the capital freed up from the sale of some

$RIO shares (a 65% price gain plus an 8% dividend) to add to a position I haven’t touched in years. After $MC soared to unprecedented heights in recent years—even briefly making its CEO the richest person on Earth—it has recently crashed by about 60%. After waiting patiently, I now see an opportunity to make a contrarian move here.

Weakness in the luxury segment surrounding $KER and $RMS, weakness in China, supply chain issues, high oil prices, macroeconomic risks, a stagnating global economy, lack of demand in emerging markets, declining sales in the small leather goods business, “lifestyle inflation” surrounding the Louis Vuitton brand, and consumer reluctance across nearly all sectors… all of this, combined with the key metrics and the brands themselves, sounds like music to my ears!

With this purchase, $MC has now grown to become my fifth-largest position. I’m expecting robust long-term returns here and don’t rule out making further purchases.

To all skeptics, I recommend visiting the new Louis Vuitton store in Shanghai if possible (or 5th Ave. in NYC).


You have to experience this brand for yourself!

28.09
LVMH logo
Comprado em € 392,00
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3 Comentários

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That's interesting—what makes LVMH better than Hermès in your opinion?
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@ImmoHai Good question.
For one thing, I’m a fan of diversification, and LVMH has a much broader portfolio. For another, there’s marketing power and the spirit of the times—LVMH offers products for everyone from the emerging middle class to the extremely wealthy. Of course, that also makes it more cyclical—that’s clear. And finally, I’m a fan of the growth momentum driven by acquisitions. I’ve been watching this for years and have been impressed by the company’s drive for expansion.
Hermès may be more stable, but to me, it’s just more boring.
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@MrKurt89 Thanks for the detailed answer :)

I'll wait out the downtrend, and then I'll probably jump in, too.
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