3Semana
Good company with mega margins. The wave of automation suits them. Not a tenbagger, but you can't go wrong. Suitable for people who want to build a strong quality portfolio. But you should keep an eye on China. The trade conflict between the USA and China doesn't play a role here, this is always said directly out of reflex. You should take a much closer look at the trade conflict between Japan and China, which has recently intensified.
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@PikaPika0105 Thank you for your assessment.
But you're not invested, are you?
The only thing that could really cause problems is, as you said, the trade conflict between Japan and China. How dangerous do you think that is for the company?
But you're not invested, are you?
The only thing that could really cause problems is, as you said, the trade conflict between Japan and China. How dangerous do you think that is for the company?
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3Semana
@capital_captain_2693 I am not invested. I can't say much about the impact as I don't know exactly how dependent Keyence is on Chinese customers. However, the trade conflict will continue for the next few years.
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•@PikaPika0105 You are heavily invested in Japan, how do you see the situation if the yen appreciates again?
In relation to all Japanese equities, of course.
In relation to all Japanese equities, of course.
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2Semana
@capital_captain_2693 I think it is very likely that the yen will slowly appreciate by around 40% over the next 10-15 years. Euro traders will then simply receive the appreciation as a gift.
However, the impact on the economy will be different. For a long time it was thought that a low yen was good for exports. This is also true for mass-produced goods with high competitive pressure. Over time, however, it becomes less important. The more specialized the economy (semiconductors, robots, IP....), the lower the price pressure. At the moment, the economy is clearly moving in this direction. A more expensive yen will also make imports cheaper, domestic purchasing power will increase and M&A will become cheaper. However, you have to bear in mind that debt is also becoming more expensive again, which is why it really is a balancing act.
However, I would say that the bottom has now been reached. With the BoJ/FED/ECB rate tightening, falling energy imports (with strongest selling pressure), more tourism and economic rebalancing, I think the yen is bound to appreciate. However, it will be a marathon and a conscious one at that.
For equities I would say it is good overall, but as always it depends on which ones.
However, the impact on the economy will be different. For a long time it was thought that a low yen was good for exports. This is also true for mass-produced goods with high competitive pressure. Over time, however, it becomes less important. The more specialized the economy (semiconductors, robots, IP....), the lower the price pressure. At the moment, the economy is clearly moving in this direction. A more expensive yen will also make imports cheaper, domestic purchasing power will increase and M&A will become cheaper. However, you have to bear in mind that debt is also becoming more expensive again, which is why it really is a balancing act.
However, I would say that the bottom has now been reached. With the BoJ/FED/ECB rate tightening, falling energy imports (with strongest selling pressure), more tourism and economic rebalancing, I think the yen is bound to appreciate. However, it will be a marathon and a conscious one at that.
For equities I would say it is good overall, but as always it depends on which ones.
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•@PikaPika0105 Thank you for your assessment
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2Semana
@capital_captain_2693 ah one more addition: because the companies' figures are published in yen, foreign profits fall on paper if the yen rises. This means that companies that do most of their business abroad are affected. But because it will be a very slow process, you won't really be able to see this in companies with stable growth. As already mentioned, there are also positive effects such as cheaper M&A.
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@PikaPika0105 This is the case with Keyence, which generates a large proportion of its sales abroad. But the debt part doesn't affect them because they are actually debt-free. Of course, the balance sheets may look a little worse, but our positions are simply revalued by the exchange rate.
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•2Semana
@capital_captain_2693 That is precisely what balances out. Debt is also more of a problem for the state.
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