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Is Novo a long-term dividend pearl?

Before I head off to a garden party in 2 hours and stop writing for a while, I would like to share a few interesting thoughts on $NOVO B (-0,09%) that I have just heard in a podcast (buy the Dip) and which have at least changed my way of thinking about the company from a trading perspective.

One of the 3 protagonists of the podcast has $NOVO B (-0,09%) as a dividend stock in his long-term portfolio. He believes that the share will bring him a conservative annual return of 11-13% in the long term through a combination of price appreciation and dividends. So far, he has probably held it since 2017, this has worked out at 140%.

What do you generally think of such an approach? It comes very close to my original approach towards dividend stocks, except that I $NOVO B (-0,09%) would not have put it in this category before.

20 Comentários

finanzperpetuum@finanzperpetuum

I can confirm this and with Novo it is somehow also my approach.

Since 2015 I am currently at 184% price gain and including sales (my purchase secured) and dividends currently at 311% My personal dividend yield is currently 7.3 % For 10 years this is quite reasonable.

As I have already secured my initial investment, the rest is simply left lying around. Only the dividend is already crazy at the moment and performance will come again, just be patient :-)

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Chris@Multibagger

@finanzperpetuum Thank you for your assessment and experience over such a long period of time

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DH I.@fund_whisperer_1682

Had the same this morning on Dutch television.
The investing group explained that the current stock price is 13,5x profit margin.
They think Novo could really fight with Lilly and so on.

But to be honest, from personal vision.
Stocks what this amount of news you can’t scroll trough Getquin without seeing Novo

That is what makes me still doubting what to do?…

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David@DerUnwissende

It's possible, but you have to see if they can get their problems under control. They have good products and the slimming injection is also selling well and they are also increasing. I suspect that the market for the injection will increase. Novo is increasing its dividend and therefore it is something for people with dividend growth. He assumes that the dividend will now continue to rise, which can also be assumed. But Novo will not mutate into a rocket in the near future.

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Chris@Multibagger

@DerUnwissende That's why I've only ever seen them as a short-term trading opportunity, but never as a long-term investment.

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Olli@Olli68

However, they will first have to achieve the 11-13% over the next few years. They have lost their market leadership, are lagging behind in terms of research (tablets etc.) and margins are falling significantly. The syringes for which they were selling for 1,499$ in the USA 2 months ago are now selling for 299$ via the insolvent Weight-watchers group. There seems to be a lot of panic in the house. And there are stronger stocks for 2... % dividends.

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finanzperpetuum@finanzperpetuum

12H

@Olli68 Market leadership lost? I think we currently have a 60% market share in the diabetes and obesity segment. And have you taken a look at the dividend growth? I'm sticking with it and I'm sure we'll soon see other share prices again.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

So I choose my stocks more on the basis of growth. If they also pay dividends, I am all the more pleased.
Like $GFT or $QCOM

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Soprano@Soprano

I don't understand the approach of your question. Theoretically, every share that rises is a dividend pearl in the long term. Microsoft, for example, has a dividend yield of 0.6% - for us. But if you've had it in your portfolio for 20 years now, the share has increased twentyfold and you also get a dividend of 12% ...

Yes, okay. But a share can also fall. And then it doesn't work. I don't understand what that has to do with Novo, because the idea applies to every rising share and not to every falling share ...

Apart from that, Novo Nordisk is not the best choice for dividend lovers, precisely because you have to reclaim the Danish tax yourself.

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Chris@Multibagger

@Soprano the question is whether one should not take such a narrow view when selecting dividend stocks, but rather look at the overall performance?:and whether $NOVO B would be an interesting investment for you from this point of view? So let's say you think $NOVO B will develop like Microsoft over the next 10 years?

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Soprano@Soprano

@Multibagger Yes, I generally find dividend growth stocks much more interesting than dividend stocks with a high payout. For me, Novo is definitely an interesting stock in the healthcare sector and I am also invested. Overall, I also really like healthcare stocks and invest a lot in the sector, but mainly as a hedge against tech. There won't be as many fireworks as with Microsoft, but I am hoping for a certain upward stability and decreasing volatility

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Chris@Multibagger

23H

@Soprano Thank you for your assessment

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Kate🦋@Iwamoto

That was also my plan. But then a few days ago there was another setback (because of the Canadian patent). I then sold at a profit and am currently getting back in with a savings plan. If things go as I expect, I'll have a good share price profit in the foreseeable future, which won't bring me anything because it's a book profit but a correspondingly high personal dividend yield. Let's see

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ErpelofStocks@ErpelofStocks

23H

After the incident with the patent in Canada, I have reduced Novo somewhat - this is a clear sign that something is going wrong there. Nevertheless, it is still the largest position in the portfolio and I am still convinced of strong share price and dividend growth in the coming years. Just wait and see and don't get carried away.

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0LIV3R@PIXELINVESTOR

13H

I am currently down 7% with Novo. Does anyone have a tip? Leave it? Buy more? 😅

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Kate🦋@Iwamoto

13H

@PIXELINVESTOR Let it lie. The share can gain over 7% in a single day. Maybe that will happen soon 🔮

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S.A.T.@SATNL

If you feel the battle can fall two ways maybe invest fifty fifty in both ?

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Chris@Multibagger

@SATNL What do you mean by 50/50? Both in $NOVO B? That doesn't make any sense. Then you'll definitely lose with one 50% and have to hope that the other 50% more than makes up for it. I don't think that's such a tempting strategy.

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S.A.T.@SATNL

@Multibagger eli lily and novonordisk

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Gomerdoc@Gomerdoc

$NOVO B is certainly exactly what you have described. A rock-solid long-term investment, and not a manufacturer of weight-loss injections or pills, nor a trend like $HIMS.
Take a look at the share price performance since 1990, if you can find it anywhere, and calculate your hypothetical personal dividend yield on an investment since 1990,1991,1992 and so on:
No doubt about it.
Big players in the diabetes market.
Per annum return over the last 20 years (share price increase): 18% per year - on average. Long before GLP-1 receptor drugs...

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