6D·

Hims & Hers: Possible Bull Case ($217), Base Case ($97) and Bear Case ($24)

$HIMS (-0,04%)

Bull case 2030

Subscribers = 10m
Average monthly revenue = $89
P/S multiple = 6x
Market cap = $59b
Stock price = $217
Return vs 2024 = +675%

Base case 2030

Subscribers = 7m
Average monthly revenue = $83
P/S multiple = 4x
Market cap = $26b
Stock price = $97
Return vs 2024 = +246%

Bear case 2030

Subscribers = 4.8m
Average monthly revenue = $77
P/S multiple = 2x
Market cap = $6.5b
Stock price = $24
Return vs 2024 = -15%

What do you think of the assumptions? Are they realistic? Which scenario do you think is likely?

10 Comentários

userc811746a6d9041b6@userc811746a6d9041b6

You can also flip a coin or roll the dice - it probably has the same value. In my opinion, the company, the market and the economy are far too complex and dynamic to make such assumptions for 2030 using Hims. There are too many wild cards that need to be taken into account.

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userc811746a6d9041b6@userc811746a6d9041b6

@userc811746a6d9041b6 Addendum: An important point that is missing is the dilution through the issue of new shares and employee programs. Which was always pronounced at Hims (as far as I know)

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

@userc811746a6d9041b6 Is included in the chart under Shares Outstanding.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

@userc811746a6d9041b6 What is your suggestion then? Don't do any research and buy blindly? The aim of the model is not to predict the future, because by definition a model cannot reflect reality. It is to illustrate potentials and risks.

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userc811746a6d9041b6@userc811746a6d9041b6

@thewolfofallstreetz For my part, I would analyze and consider more qualitative factors. Quantitative too, but not primarily

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

@userc811746a6d9041b6 Of course, this is based on fundamental, qualitative research. The table is an attempt to translate this research into figures and show possible scenarios. For example, it shows the maximum amount you should pay, so that even in a bear case scenario you would most likely only lose a little money and at the same time have massive upside potential.

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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung

The shit people are commenting on here again 😂. Thanks for your efforts, interesting overview 👍

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Lupo201@Lupo201

Really a good overview, but taking the P/E ratio into account here is not entirely meaningful in my opinion. Hims&Hers is already making profits, so the P/E ratio is much more interesting here. Margins will increase and profits will rise anyway due to higher subscriber numbers. I think we will be much higher than $217 in 2030

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Washing M.@TheFknMachine

Only charlatans make such predictions

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

@Tradingshoke Top-Beitrag 👍

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