I agree with most of the thesis, especially after going through the H1 2026 numbers myself. At around €69, WKL looks much more interesting than it did a year ago.
What stands out is that the business hasn't deteriorated anywhere near as much as the share price suggests. Recurring revenue grew 7%, cloud software 14%, adjusted EPS and FCF 14% in constant currency, while ROIC remains around 18%.
My main caution is AI. The adoption numbers are very encouraging, but adoption alone doesn't prove monetisation or increased customer value. That's what I'd want to see over the next few quarters.
I'd also be careful extrapolating the 29.4% H1 operating margin, given that product development spending is expected to be higher in H2.
For me, the real strength remains the combination of recurring revenue, proprietary content, workflow integration, switching costs and strong cash generation.
€91 seems like a reasonable base case, but I wouldn't treat it as a precise fair value. The key question is whether the market is overestimating the long-term threat from AI.
At €69–70, I think the risk/reward has become considerably more interesting.
What stands out is that the business hasn't deteriorated anywhere near as much as the share price suggests. Recurring revenue grew 7%, cloud software 14%, adjusted EPS and FCF 14% in constant currency, while ROIC remains around 18%.
My main caution is AI. The adoption numbers are very encouraging, but adoption alone doesn't prove monetisation or increased customer value. That's what I'd want to see over the next few quarters.
I'd also be careful extrapolating the 29.4% H1 operating margin, given that product development spending is expected to be higher in H2.
For me, the real strength remains the combination of recurring revenue, proprietary content, workflow integration, switching costs and strong cash generation.
€91 seems like a reasonable base case, but I wouldn't treat it as a precise fair value. The key question is whether the market is overestimating the long-term threat from AI.
At €69–70, I think the risk/reward has become considerably more interesting.
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@sdp_oxigen i totally agree, especially on what you consider the real strength and the main caution.
The threat is not:
“ChatGPT will replace Wolters Kluwer.”
The real threat is:
“AI reduces the economic value of some of the content and research that previously justified subscriptions.”
But there are three very strong defences:
1. Proprietary and licensed content
2. Integrated workflow
3. Professional/regulatory liability
A lawyer, accountant, or doctor does not simply want a plausible answer.
They want an answer that is:
reliable → auditable → up to date → contextualised → integrated into the workflow.
That is precisely where Wolters Kluwer can turn AI into an extension of its moat.
And the announced collaboration with OpenAI to develop Expert AI in regulated areas reinforces this strategy.
Let’s see how it goes… but at this price and with these results, I believe it will be worth.
The threat is not:
“ChatGPT will replace Wolters Kluwer.”
The real threat is:
“AI reduces the economic value of some of the content and research that previously justified subscriptions.”
But there are three very strong defences:
1. Proprietary and licensed content
2. Integrated workflow
3. Professional/regulatory liability
A lawyer, accountant, or doctor does not simply want a plausible answer.
They want an answer that is:
reliable → auditable → up to date → contextualised → integrated into the workflow.
That is precisely where Wolters Kluwer can turn AI into an extension of its moat.
And the announced collaboration with OpenAI to develop Expert AI in regulated areas reinforces this strategy.
Let’s see how it goes… but at this price and with these results, I believe it will be worth.
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