The juice sounds great.
The Top Investor Portfolio sounds like something that can go badly wrong because systematic errors creep in.
Overweighting sectors and/or factors, investor styles that are not factors but do well for a decade or two; overperforming over the last decade only to die the most dramatic death in stock market history.
Basically, you try to catch the biggest clunkers with the 10 out of 300 guidelines here, but I'm at least slightly to moderately skeptical.
It's quite an academic approach. The problem I see is that it assumes that the performers of the last period have a higher chance of being successful in the next. A sensible idea, but haven't there already been studies that at least cast doubt on this? I have a vague idea, but I'd have to do some research.
The Top Investor Portfolio sounds like something that can go badly wrong because systematic errors creep in.
Overweighting sectors and/or factors, investor styles that are not factors but do well for a decade or two; overperforming over the last decade only to die the most dramatic death in stock market history.
Basically, you try to catch the biggest clunkers with the 10 out of 300 guidelines here, but I'm at least slightly to moderately skeptical.
It's quite an academic approach. The problem I see is that it assumes that the performers of the last period have a higher chance of being successful in the next. A sensible idea, but haven't there already been studies that at least cast doubt on this? I have a vague idea, but I'd have to do some research.
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@SchlaubiSchlumpf Yes, I also see that as the biggest problem...
However, it's the same with momentum, regime change = crash
And then the new winners crystallize.
However, it's the same with momentum, regime change = crash
And then the new winners crystallize.
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•@TotallyLost Yup the question is always whether the premium is +greater than the crash takes a way (all compared to the overall market of course)
But I think nan can also try something. I always think about it too. Recently thought about putting some of the money I have into a REIT etf. For no good reason at all 🙈
I'm afraid in most cases it comes down to what Fama once said; that markets are not efficient, but the average investor would do well to act as if they were.
But I think nan can also try something. I always think about it too. Recently thought about putting some of the money I have into a REIT etf. For no good reason at all 🙈
I'm afraid in most cases it comes down to what Fama once said; that markets are not efficient, but the average investor would do well to act as if they were.
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•@SchlaubiSchlumpf I have to agree with Mr. Fama, but the top investors are by definition not average. 😁
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•@TotallyLost yep, true dat. The problem is that yesterday's top investors are not necessarily tomorrow's investors. Time will tell. (Or if you know someone, maybe a finance student could do a little master's thesis on it to set up a study) 😂
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•@SchlaubiSchlumpf That's the beauty of it, it's a dynamic system, if the top investors can't adapt to new circumstances, new ones will come along.
It just can't happen too often.
However, under such assumptions, most momentum strategies would also reach their limits.
It just can't happen too often.
However, under such assumptions, most momentum strategies would also reach their limits.
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Or too fast. Could it end up being that the thing correlates strongly with market momentum? 😂
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@SchlaubiSchlumpf yes, you can benchmark it against other funds here:
https://www.onvista.de/fonds/COIQ-GLOBAL-EQUITY-EVOLUTIONARY-COLLECTIVE-INTELLIGENCE-R-EUR-ACC-Fonds-DE000A3C91C5
Unfortunately, the fund is only 3 years old, but if you run it against a value, quality, momentum and normal world, it is noticeable that they all perform relatively the same.
But the CoIQ outperforms them all in upward phases.
This is what you also see in the long-term chart: higher highs, higher max drawdown.
https://www.onvista.de/fonds/COIQ-GLOBAL-EQUITY-EVOLUTIONARY-COLLECTIVE-INTELLIGENCE-R-EUR-ACC-Fonds-DE000A3C91C5
Unfortunately, the fund is only 3 years old, but if you run it against a value, quality, momentum and normal world, it is noticeable that they all perform relatively the same.
But the CoIQ outperforms them all in upward phases.
This is what you also see in the long-term chart: higher highs, higher max drawdown.
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•@TotallyLost I'm curious to see what happens in the long term. At the moment it reads like a tech bro's wet dream 😁
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•@TotallyLost have always been proud that I didn't find Tesla in the top 100 of my portfolio 😁
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•@SchlaubiSchlumpf You haven't had your Momentum ETF that long, have you? 😜
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