2Ano·

Dear friends of marketing,

I would like to point out a circumstance that has received little attention so far, but which could have a significant impact on the European stock markets in particular.

The long-dated European government bonds (25+y Euro Gov Bonds) are about to break out of their one-year consolidation (triangle) to the downside. If the breakout is confirmed, the technical downside potential is considerable.

Since the bond markets are larger than the equity markets and are primarily handled by institutional investors, this is typically where the informed money is. Price changes here very often have predictive power for the equity markets.

Falling bond prices mean rising interest rates mean rising opportunity costs for stocks mean falling stock prices.

So: keep an eye on these long-dated bonds! If the breakout is confirmed, we are in for some uncomfortable times on the stock market. And not only there...

A profitable week to you!

$DBXG (-0,65%)

13 Comentários

Barsten@Barsten

2Ano

Okidoki

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

2Ano

hui, how about the weekly chart if you can't see anything in the daily?😂 :)

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Waldemar@Wowa83

2Ano

Until now, everything was a little different! Bond yields rise, share prices rise! The question is when it then develops according to textbook! 😅

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six@six

2Ano

If I've heard correctly, the ECB's last interest rate hike for the time being should have been recently, which means that the long-dated bonds should slowly start to rise again. At the latest when then perhaps in the middle of next year or so the interest rates may fall again. Is only the question for me: When to get into bonds ETF with all maturities 🤷🏻‍♂️

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2Ano

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Epi@Epi

2Ano

@Torro66 That's what it says. 👍

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

2Ano

@Torro66 you'd be surprised how wrong that ends up being, unless you invest in small caps.

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2Ano

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

2Ano

@Torro66 😂 I actually only meant that an overall correction is also accompanied by falling individual shares, but that apparently had to get out. and yes, a -20% -30% correction I expect btw also, but I do not force anyone's opinion.

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Epi@Epi

2Ano

@Torro66 Is it possible that you have not understood something fundamental about market forecasts? They are always statements of probability. If you have the impression that "everyone is usually wrong" and only explain things afterwards, then perhaps you simply have the wrong expectations? You don't always have to be right. If you are right in the majority of cases, that's enough. And even that you don't have to if you have the right strategy. My contribution was just an info that you can use as a building block of a strategy. There have already been questions here about going allin with grandma's inheritance now. There I would say at the moment, no. But because I can be wrong, I would say 50% can be invested now and the rest later. The point of the stock market is always to process the information correctly, not to simply ignore it because you may not feel like understanding the context.

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