**Hi @pivot_code!**
First off, kudos for this extremely in-depth dive into the architecture and market of Horizon Robotics. That’s exactly the kind of fundamental analysis that makes the difference between gambling and investing.
Since we build our portfolios here strictly according to stoic, mathematical rules (divided into an A-side for safe cash flow machines and a B-side for speculative growth satellites), here’s the cold, hard assessment of the stock:
### 1. Which strategy does this stock fit into?
Quite clearly: **Exclusively on the B-side (growth satellite).**
Horizon Robotics is a classic, highly speculative tech play. They’ve built a massive technological moat in the Asian market and are aggressively riding the ADAS wave. Anyone investing here is betting on the sheer market power of the future and, in return, accepting massive volatility and years of cash burn. For a stoic dividend-focused portfolio (A-side), the stock is, logically, completely unsuitable.
### 2. Are your facts and figures accurate?
**Yes, meticulously researched.**
A check of the official 2025 annual figures confirms your data down to the decimal point:
* **Revenue** in 2025 stood at exactly 3.76 billion RMB, representing extremely strong growth of 57.7%.
* The **gross margin** of 64.5% (and as high as 67.2% in the automotive sector) shows that the business model can scale to be highly profitable at its core.
* Unfortunately, the massive **net loss** of 10.47 billion RMB is also accurate. This stems primarily from the massive increase in R&D costs for the new chip generations, as well as from adjustments to convertible bonds.
* Market share (47.7% among Chinese brands) and the extremely important partnership with VW in the Carizon joint venture are the company’s de facto anchors.
### 3. Would we buy the stock (according to our strategy)?
**A resounding no.**
Despite the brilliant story and massive revenue growth, the stock immediately fails our strict *Exclusion Rule*.
Our basic rule is: No purchase if there is no clear, verifiable path to profitability and the company is burning through money at an endless rate. This is exactly what the current Investing.com Quality Check (the analysis tool I use) mercilessly confirms:
* The **profitability rating** is **1 (Weak)** (score: 0.79).
* The **cash flow rating** is also **1 (Weak)** (score: 1.08).
* Cumulative leveraged FCF growth stands at a staggering -47.0%.
**Conclusion:** The story (moat, lock-in effect, China Speed) is fantastic, but the raw numbers are bleeding. We’re keeping the stock on our watchlist until the company proves it can generate positive operating cash flow from its massive revenue. Until then, it’s a bet that’s still too risky for us to take on.
Best regards, Raketentoni
First off, kudos for this extremely in-depth dive into the architecture and market of Horizon Robotics. That’s exactly the kind of fundamental analysis that makes the difference between gambling and investing.
Since we build our portfolios here strictly according to stoic, mathematical rules (divided into an A-side for safe cash flow machines and a B-side for speculative growth satellites), here’s the cold, hard assessment of the stock:
### 1. Which strategy does this stock fit into?
Quite clearly: **Exclusively on the B-side (growth satellite).**
Horizon Robotics is a classic, highly speculative tech play. They’ve built a massive technological moat in the Asian market and are aggressively riding the ADAS wave. Anyone investing here is betting on the sheer market power of the future and, in return, accepting massive volatility and years of cash burn. For a stoic dividend-focused portfolio (A-side), the stock is, logically, completely unsuitable.
### 2. Are your facts and figures accurate?
**Yes, meticulously researched.**
A check of the official 2025 annual figures confirms your data down to the decimal point:
* **Revenue** in 2025 stood at exactly 3.76 billion RMB, representing extremely strong growth of 57.7%.
* The **gross margin** of 64.5% (and as high as 67.2% in the automotive sector) shows that the business model can scale to be highly profitable at its core.
* Unfortunately, the massive **net loss** of 10.47 billion RMB is also accurate. This stems primarily from the massive increase in R&D costs for the new chip generations, as well as from adjustments to convertible bonds.
* Market share (47.7% among Chinese brands) and the extremely important partnership with VW in the Carizon joint venture are the company’s de facto anchors.
### 3. Would we buy the stock (according to our strategy)?
**A resounding no.**
Despite the brilliant story and massive revenue growth, the stock immediately fails our strict *Exclusion Rule*.
Our basic rule is: No purchase if there is no clear, verifiable path to profitability and the company is burning through money at an endless rate. This is exactly what the current Investing.com Quality Check (the analysis tool I use) mercilessly confirms:
* The **profitability rating** is **1 (Weak)** (score: 0.79).
* The **cash flow rating** is also **1 (Weak)** (score: 1.08).
* Cumulative leveraged FCF growth stands at a staggering -47.0%.
**Conclusion:** The story (moat, lock-in effect, China Speed) is fantastic, but the raw numbers are bleeding. We’re keeping the stock on our watchlist until the company proves it can generate positive operating cash flow from its massive revenue. Until then, it’s a bet that’s still too risky for us to take on.
Best regards, Raketentoni
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@Raketentoni Thank you!
I figured there would be this conclusion :)
I figured there would be this conclusion :)
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•@pivot_code It's just not my kind of investment at all; I already have two pure speculative bets going with $MYO and $DSRT. If I take on a third one, it'll be in a different field—I'm working on something right now :P
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@Raketentoni I'm looking forward to the presentation.😏😁
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•@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin Can you? I've got a Scandinavian dividend stock and a speculative play lined up. Still need to put the finishing touches on them—I think I'll get to them Wednesday and Thursday. No time tomorrow ;)
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•@Raketentoni That's really cool—I'm excited to see what happens.🫶🏻 Take it easy—there isn't much going on here on the platform right now anyway.😅🤷🏼♂️ But I'm ALWAYS interested in your ideas!
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@Raketentoni I'm interested in the Zock stock, at least
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•@Multibagger I know that best of all :)
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@Raketentoni I'm also really looking forward to the performances 👀😎
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