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I think as a private investor you are always less informed than the professionals. The price at least looks as if it has tried to price in your scenario 28.4.-11.5. and is currently pricing it out again. It looks like El Nino won't be that bad after all. 🤷
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@Epi I thought you were bringing 3xcoffee and 3x something into play for a short gamble in addition to a good chance for 3xcocoa :D
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@Migu11 Sure, I could. But this was about the assessment of the idea. I think that's questionable.