Cocoa was one of the strongest commodity markets in the world in 2024. At times, the price rose to a record high of around 12,906 USD/tonne and stood at May 18, 2026 again at around 3,768 USD/tonne - i.e. well below the high, but still historically high.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cocoa
The investment idea is simple: If the weather, harvests and stocks deteriorate again, cocoa could rise sharply once more. West Africa is particularly important: Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana supply the majority of the world's cocoa. If harvests fail there, the market reacts quickly.
In 2024, many things came together: bad weather, diseases, weak harvests and low stocks. The ICCO estimated a global deficit for 2023/24 of around 492,000 tons. For 2024/25, the situation improved again to an expected surplus of 75,000 tons. https://www.icco.org/february-2026-quarterly-bulletin-of-cocoa-statistics/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
An important risk factor is El Niño. According to NOAA/CPC, the probability of El Niño was very high from mid-2026, at around 82% for May-July 2026 and 96% for December 2026-February 2027.
So the thesis is: You are not investing directly in chocolate, but in the probability of a new supply bottleneck.
One argument in favor of cocoa is that the price has fallen sharply, while weather and harvest problems remain a possibility. On the other hand, the market recovered after 2024: Production increased again and high prices have depressed demand.
What is your opinion? Am I missing something?
