🔷 1. Overview 🛳️
Tidewater Inc. ($TDW) provides offshore support vessels and services to the energy industry, including oil and gas exploration, production, and windfarm development. ⚡️ Its fleet offers towing, anchor handling, supply transport, offshore construction, and subsea support. Serving oil and gas companies, offshore contractors, and windfarm developers, Tidewater was founded in 1956 and is based in Houston, Texas. 🏢
🔷 2. Key Metrics (21/02/25, NYSE) 📊
· Stock Price: $50.46 – ⬇️ 9.46% YTD
· Market cap: $2.640 billion 💵
· P/E Ratio: 14.8, slightly higher than $SLB (13.42) & $HAL (9.28) but with reason 📈
· Revenue: $1.342 billion (projected for 2024) 💰
· EBITDA: $550.6 million (projected) 🏦
· EPS: $3.638 (projected) 💵
· FCF: $252.5 million (projected) 💸
· Debt/EBITDA: 0.51 for the year 2024 (projected), none going forward ✅
Projected annual average growth rates from 2023 to 2026:
· Revenue Growth: ~18% to $1.675 billion 🚀
· EBITDA Growth: ~29% to $826.9 million 📈
· EPS Growth: ~71% to $9.229 💵
· FCF Growth: ~75% to $594.7 million 💰
· Debt reduction: no debt from 2025 going forward ✅
🔷 3. Catalysts and Risks ⚖️
🟢 Catalysts:
· Political Tailwind: President Trump is probably the most obvious and outspoken advocate; while his ”Drill, Baby, Drill” approach may very well slow down revenue growth of major oil giants such as $XOM or $CVX due to massively increased production and the possible subsequent decline of the oil price it benefits companies specialising on oilfield service massively. 🇺🇸💨
· Fleet Modernization: 🛠️ $TDW is currently in the process of modernizing their fleet on a large scale in order to cater to the increased demand for their services in the coming year.
· Strong Leadership: 🏆 The CEO and President Quintin Kninn has a multi-year contract with a compensation overwhelmingly dependent on the company‘s performance. So, there is skin in the game. 📊
🔴 Risks:
· Competitive Expansion: One of the few risks I could determine is, if other major petroleum service companies such as $SLB were to expand their services heavily into the niche segment of Offshore service vessels, where $TDW is market leader and then take from its market share. Though, in my opinion this risk is negligible and does not pose a serious threat going forward as it would require massive investments for delayed returns for entering competitors.
🔷 4. My portfolio 📈💼
🟢I opened my position last week in addition to my $SLB position in order to diversify myself in this sector, as I see huge opportunities ahead in this industry for Donald Trump‘s second term. 🇺🇸📊
🔷 5. Conclusion 💡
Tidewater is an extremely fast growing company in an industry that is poised to flourish under a republican and especially a Trump administration that declared “Drill, Baby, Drill“ a top priority on day one. Additionally, Trump‘s already business-friendly approach can be another catalyst for US companies in the coming years. 🔥
I see high potential in the stock, possibly even surpassing its 5-year high of around $100, which $TDW dropped by just over 50% since the middle of 2024. 📊🚀
