2D·

Buying More Vonovia Shares in a Turbulent Market

$VNA (-0,24%) continues to post solid results: rental income up 3.4%, rental EBITDA up 3.5%. At the same time, properties were sold for approximately €700 million, and €4.4 billion was refinanced on a long-term basis—at an average rate of 3.2% (just look at current construction and financing interest rates).

What matters most to me: The business is once again reliably generating cash, and the balance sheet is being actively managed. It’s not a growth-driven operation like in the tech industry, but rather a large portfolio of apartments that consistently generates income.

My assessment: I’m not buying a “story,” but rather tangible assets and recurring cash flow. However, I’m also buying into the risk of left-wing expropriation fantasies and rising interest rates. Given my investment horizon, I’m perfectly comfortable with that. As a value investor, these are exactly the kinds of situations that interest me.

01.10

Vonovia

Comprado em € 16,81

7 Comentários

FinanzKeks@ImmoHai

I also think a lot is already factored into that price. Maybe wait a little longer until it hits bottom :)

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

Very nice. Actually, it's definitely a must-buy. 👈

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Carsten B.@mrvalue

16H

A very nice price level... I'll definitely be buying a second batch in the next few days... I bought in at 17.90....

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Gamla S.@gamlasvensk

I also have a sizable position in Vonovia and am considering buying more, but given the prospect of rising interest rates, it’s not a buy for me right now. I actually expect prices to fall further, and I don’t think they’ve hit bottom yet.

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Kurz@MrKurt89

@gamlasvensk Where do you see the bottom? Since you can never really pinpoint it, I keep buying in increments. With the hope that we'll be higher up in 30 years 😄

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Gamla S.@gamlasvensk

@MrKurt89 Personally, I still see up to 20% downside potential. Simply because I don’t see inflation easing up, which means a few more interest rate hikes and, consequently, further price declines. On top of that, there will be problems either way due to a red-red-green coalition government in Berlin. Vonovia faces a significant concentration of risk there. While there won’t be any expropriation, there may be more measures aimed at capping rents, and new construction—let alone acquisitions—will simply be hardly economically viable with high interest rates.

Below €14 is a buying opportunity for me. Then the dividend yield will be attractive again.

I’ve held the stock myself since the days of low interest rates and am keeping it for the tax-free dividend—even if that only makes limited sense, since a dividend-paying global ETF is performing significantly better. But hey, it’s my money sitting there.

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burnheart@burnheart

The risk of nationalization in Berlin is likely minimal. The bigger problem is the rise in interest rates. But the discount is already steep—ideally, a nice dividend plus upside potential on top. However, there’s still no momentum for a trend reversal.

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