As I think this scenario is only a few days away (the Easter weekend would be predestined for this as the stock exchanges in the USA are closed on Good Friday and that is also when the ultimatum ends), it should be addressed. In my view, the deployment of ground troops would destroy all chances of a ceasefire. Even just trying to occupy Khargh would lead to a massive expansion of Iranian attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East.
But I think the most underestimated player in a further escalation with ground troops would be the Huthi militia, which has announced that it would go to war with all its might in that case. This would mean that the USA and Israel would have a new opponent that is many times stronger than Hamas or Hezbollah. They have the opportunity to shut down access to the Red Sea and thus to the Suez Canal. This would also close the only alternative route for the Strait of Hormuz. The consequences for oil prices? We will see prices of at least 150 dollars within a few days. We would see an acceleration of the downward trend on the stock markets and, in view of the medium-term economic outlook due to massive inflation and interest rate rises, this unnecessary war in violation of international law may even lead the stock markets into a longer-term bear market.
Unfortunately, I don't see anyone who can stop the two warmongers Trump and Netanyahu. So we have no choice but to position ourselves accordingly.
