2D·

What impact would the deployment of ground troops have

As I think this scenario is only a few days away (the Easter weekend would be predestined for this as the stock exchanges in the USA are closed on Good Friday and that is also when the ultimatum ends), it should be addressed. In my view, the deployment of ground troops would destroy all chances of a ceasefire. Even just trying to occupy Khargh would lead to a massive expansion of Iranian attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East.

But I think the most underestimated player in a further escalation with ground troops would be the Huthi militia, which has announced that it would go to war with all its might in that case. This would mean that the USA and Israel would have a new opponent that is many times stronger than Hamas or Hezbollah. They have the opportunity to shut down access to the Red Sea and thus to the Suez Canal. This would also close the only alternative route for the Strait of Hormuz. The consequences for oil prices? We will see prices of at least 150 dollars within a few days. We would see an acceleration of the downward trend on the stock markets and, in view of the medium-term economic outlook due to massive inflation and interest rate rises, this unnecessary war in violation of international law may even lead the stock markets into a longer-term bear market.


Unfortunately, I don't see anyone who can stop the two warmongers Trump and Netanyahu. So we have no choice but to position ourselves accordingly.

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58 Comentários

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You've been nervous and pessimistic here for days.
Just wait until Easter.
No one will harm themselves, not the Middle East, not the USA.
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@Smudeo I've actually been in the phase where I feel well positioned to at least get out of the decline +/-. About 50% of my portfolio is now invested in the beneficiaries of the escalation. The other half is benefiting more from a normalization. I am YTD at -2%. It's not great in relation to the target, but given my risk it's not a disaster. But I think, and that's why I write these posts, that many younger people in particular are starting to panic and I think it's good to prepare for further declines. If it's not so bad afterwards, all the better.
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@Multibagger but it is precisely because of posts like this and many other crash propaganda prophets that the "newcomers" are panicking. It is never the right time to invest.
No, cash is wrong because it doesn't bring any return, neither positive nor negative.
It is better to stay away from the stock market, the fluctuations are no comparison to the last few years
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@Multibagger I would still like to invest in one of the profiteers....what would be your favorite at the moment?
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@fund_manager_2787 $COP, $TTE or also $VET. Otherwise long on Brent or short on NASDAQ. These are of course much shorter-term trades with more risk.
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@Multibagger Thanks for your help. I already have $TTE and $COP in my portfolio. Then I will add $VET.
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@Multibagger With your shorts and longs, are you going intraday or are you holding them longer? Didn't you have the 28 leverage on NASDAQ? Did that work out?
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@value_seeker_ stands at 120% so far. I will continue to hold. If it escalates, it will be at 500% and the NASDAQ at 20,000
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@Multibagger 😱 Respect ... I always read a lot about clear exit strategies and warrants that are only held for a short time. You wrote about this warrant over a week ago.
The question is whether there won't be a bounce upwards tomorrow because many people are "shopping" properly.
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@Multibagger I am also so diversified with (far too many) more than 90 stocks in my portfolio that there have been no significant cuts here. Only stocks such as Chevron, Halliburton and others have ensured this. Nevertheless, it would be more than desirable if calm returned. However, I would also be happy to accept a hefty price loss for the disappearance of a mullah regime from the world map.
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@ZaphodB The worst thing is that they have 90 million inhabitants and a lot of people believe in it and support the crime by "keeping stupid" censorship
If everyone "just" watches, nothing will change.
Unfortunately, someone has to clean up here and the puppet Netanyahu is nicely on the ropes of the USA.
Ver todas as 2 restantes respostas
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I'm right there with you and it will happen, but I just saved my summary of the whole thing today because it doesn't help anyway.

There are just too many ideoligists and people who have no idea about the whole scenario and the history behind it and are therefore unnecessarily stupid and discussions with empty content don't help here either... I'm not saying that I have a total overview, but I deal a lot with politics because of the stock market alone and I'm not that blind.

The main thing is that we keep an eye on our portfolios and well, there will be a lot of people crying because they still didn't see it coming...but shitt happens, that's why I don't have to put up with all the stupid comments and stoning here when I look at things objectively and express my opinion...😉

Everyone is the architect of their own fortune 🫡
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@SAUgut777 You're absolutely right. I have also been accused of spreading panic here today. So I will keep my assessment of political developments and their expected impact on the stock market to myself in the near future.
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@Multibagger no please don't 😱 I really appreciate that there are older and more experienced members here who explain why they act the way they do and what possible scenarios are.
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@Multibagger That is not the point. No opinion should be suppressed here, yours just as little as that of others. But we should link the topic back to the actual subject of stock market values. I can recommend Chevron, Meren, Petrotal and Petrobas. I have just sold Thungela Kohle with a decent margin
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If things turn out the way you say, then go long oil and short all the rest.......You can't get more return than that!
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I now think it will go on for years. The war criminal Netanyahu continues to escalate and Iran will always be able to go one better.
Ground troops on the island would be a suicide mission. But when you have an inexperienced and crazy Hegseth at the helm, it will probably happen.
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@Olli68 What nonsense: Hegseth has already been deployed in Iraq, is a major and has been awarded two Bronze Stars.
The Americans are now flying around there with Apaches, you do realize when you can use such weapons, don't you?
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@BeachPlease I would like to ask you to reconsider your tone in order to keep the discussion culture here more pleasant. It's less helpful to start with "What a load of garbage" and it's no fun to reply at that moment.
I've often noticed that you basically know everything better. So just ignore me and my presumed inexperience in this tone in future. 😘
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@Olli68 With polemics, you can expect an echo, sorry. It IS nonsense to describe Hegseth as inexperienced and an occupation attempt as a suicide mission.
I have provided counter-arguments for both 😁
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@Olli68 But the myth of the "war criminal" is then thematically NOT stylistically objectionable? Interesting basic attitude, testifies to a factual, albeit one-sided orientation :) All joking aside. You can argue, but the basic left-wing phrases that you hear again and again are simply tiresome as an initial discussion starter. And - to be honest - unlike you, your interlocutor scored points with objectivity. 2:0 for BeachPlease - completely neutral
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@ZaphodB People like to discuss in the same framing, so that works :)
But people who think differently are first personally belittled, then ignored and, if possible, somehow punished in the back.
What a pity.
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Personally, however, I now believe that nothing more will happen in this direction. The whole issue is just a joke for the press, which is being taken to extremes in the media. And where people are already lining their pockets again. So my prediction: Easter is all over, we'll take our time looking for eggs and then it's all towards the ATH. 🔮
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@Crash-Propheteus You should perhaps have your crystal ball checked again. I don't think thousands of soldiers will be brought there on landing craft to go back in 5 days. They will try to occupy Khargh and trade it for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
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@Multibagger No way, what are those few marines trying to do? It's all just a bluff!
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@Multibagger The losses would be very high and I agree with you, then we are not talking about this Easter we are through.

You have to remember that it's their home turf. Just like in Iraq and Afghanistan.
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@Crash-Propheteus Trump is so stupid and lets Israel ride him 🤫
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@SAUgut777 The Mossad and therefore Netanyahu have him by the balls because of the Epstein Files.
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@Multibagger pssst, it's still a secret that the data fell into the hands of hackers at work a certain time ago and nobody knows yet whether the president would be a blackmailer as a result...

...and above all whether he has made himself liable to prosecution as a paedophile 🫣🤫👌
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@Multibagger although the Russians could probably also have something to say about this 🤷🏻‍♂️
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@Crash-Propheteus If you're right, then I'll give you one of my Easter eggs. But I'm afraid that unfortunately things will turn out differently.... Good luck 🍀
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@Multibagger I don't know whether this can really be proven on a factual basis. And you shouldn't overestimate Iran either. But you shouldn't underestimate it either. The fact that you indiscriminately fire on your neighbors and cause such economic chaos - nobody had that on their watch. But it can also backfire badly, because the neighboring states will certainly not allow their economic basis to be permanently destroyed by a crazy regime. I do believe that we will see the end of the regime in the not too distant future and then an easing of the overall situation. Perhaps my opinion is also based a little on the fact that next door to my "daughter-in-law" there are photos of family members who were probably shot in the face with shotguns for no good reason back home. As far as I'm concerned, something similar could happen to the people responsible there.
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Thank you for your assessment 👍🏻. I am very excited about the coming weeks and further developments.
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Panic, panic and more panic.
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@risk_taker_2194 For you it's panic, for me it's a realistic geopolitical assessment that helps me to align my portfolio accordingly with potential profiteers. But you are welcome to take a different view. I don't believe in sitting out and buying cheaper, but rather in trying to profit in every market phase.
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@Multibagger You can plan it zero point zero, let alone time it. It's an illusion and a huge fallacy.
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@risk_taker_2194 just like your panic thesis 🤫😉
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@risk_taker_2194 but you can include probabilities in your actions. They can be wrong or right. Everyone makes their own decisions.
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In principle, I now believe that the madman is capable of anything, but at the moment I think it's just sabre-rattling. The war has already torn a big hole in the US treasury and they don't have that much money left. The deployment of ground troops would do them more harm than good. You always have to consider what you're putting into the balance and what the outcome will be.
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@mami_goes_boerse Explain that to a crazy "gut feeling" in the White House 🫣🤫😅
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@mami_goes_boerse The deployment of ground troops is exactly the same as the "deployment" of the fleet before the attack. You don't DO it on this scale if you don't intend to use these resources. That was the case when the entire US fleet appeared - and it will probably be the case now.
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If things continue as they are, the ground deployment of US troops will result in further heavy price losses.
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@dividend_dynamo_2507 I assume the same
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@dividend_dynamo_2507 Uncertain times always bring strong price fluctuations
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@mami_goes_boerse...but also opportunities. It's not called.... "Buy when the guns are blazing" for nothing - I don't mean that in a spiteful or coldly dismissive way, but unfortunately it's generally true. Optimism that better times will come is the way forward for me.
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@ZaphodB I absolutely agree with you 👍
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Thank you for your assessment.

I had bought put options on the NASDAQ 100 this morning. Regardless of your comment. Probably should have gone with the Nasdaq Composite instead^^. Well, so be it.

I may go long on oil as an extended hedge.
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Our government is worse than that
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@risk_taker_2194 but you don't understand anything either 🤷🏻‍♂️
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@SAUgut777 Write something random
@risk_taker_2194 Congratulations, stupidest comment of the day.
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@bene87 The main thing is a prize
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@risk_taker_2194 Oha....crass change of direction. But....yes. :)
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I know that I know nothing
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It looks like market learns more and more to exist with minimal fluctuations after monkey with grenades politics decisions. I see alternative energy stocks growing
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hmmm......what alternatives are there? Oh yes...right - unfortunately none. It wouldn't hurt to take a really realistic view of the matter. The Huthis as an opponent to be taken seriously? I have my doubts when you see the video footage of these very well-armed heroes - supplies from Iran are no longer really available in terms of weapons - and if Iran makes a lasting mess of business for the surrounding, previously tolerant Gulf states, the American ground troops will not be the only ones on the move. One can only hope that the spook will quickly come to an end and that the people of Iran will be persuaded to send the gentlemen with the Stone Age headgear into the desert. Or even better, straight to Khamenei. Peace will only come after that. There is no alternative that would not leave behind a worse chaos than was already there before the attack. Even peace slogans won't help. Unfortunately. And hardly anyone wants Israel to finish the job ALONE. They probably would - in their own way and with their weapons, which Iran didn't have yet. If THAT happens, THEN the problem will be a real one.
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