The stock is moving strongly in premarket trading after Reuters reported that Chinese authorities have held meetings with major tech companies about potentially restricting overseas access to China’s most advanced AI models. $BABA (+0,55%) and Z.ai were reportedly among the companies present in those discussions.
For me, the key point is not simply that China may “close off” its AI models. The bigger takeaway is that Beijing seems to be treating frontier AI as a strategic national asset, much like the U.S. is already doing with its own advanced models.
This matters for Alibaba because Qwen is not a side project. It is one of the most important Chinese AI model families and a central part of Alibaba’s AI and cloud thesis.
Alibaba has already been in my portfolio a couple of times. I sold it, reassessed the thesis, and bought back in less than a month ago. Not because of short-term momentum, but because I still believe the market may not be fully pricing the AI/cloud optionality inside the company.
Of course, this also comes with risks. More regulation and geopolitical tension could limit Qwen’s international expansion if restrictions become too aggressive.
But that is exactly why I find Alibaba interesting: a cheap and heavily punished company, with clear risks, but also with a technology angle that the market seems to be paying attention to again.