7Mês·

Energy Vault announces positive EBITDA for the first time, transformation is rewarded on the stock exchange

$NRGV (-1,98%) has reported positive EBITDA for the first time and the share price is soaring. While the share price is still down 17% for the year as a whole, the month is clearly up at 27%.

https://investors.energyvault.com/news/press-releases/news-details/2026/Energy-Vault-Reports-Q4-and-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results/default.aspx

Highlights:

2025 sales growth 340% YoY

2025 gross margin 23.6% (10% growth)

Q4 2025 EBITDA positive for the first time at $9.8m

300% growth in order backlog

All in all very positive. The outlook is also very positive. Crusoe is the company's entry into the lucrative data center sector. I will remain invested and wait until my position grows into the green. What do you think about $NRGV (-1,98%) ?

5 Comentários

Raketentoni@Raketentoni

7Mês

The story about Crusoe's entry into the AI infrastructure sector sounds extremely tempting, but a closer look at the foundations should set alarm bells ringing.

To dispel any doubts, I pulled the latest data directly from yesterday's earnings call (March 17, 2026). With a current share price of around USD 3.46 (as at 18 March) and a market capitalization of around USD 580 million, the facts look like this:

The market is currently celebrating the Q4 results because expectations were significantly exceeded:

* Q4 sales exploded by 357% year-on-year to USD 153.3 million.

* The full year 2025 closes with USD 203.7 million in sales.

* Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was positive USD 9.8 million for the first time.

* The order backlog has grown to an impressive USD 1.3 billion.

At first glance, this looks like a massive breakthrough. However, if you run these figures through the hard filters, the following unembellished picture emerges:

The hard key figures
* Price/earnings ratio (P/E): n/a (Despite a tiny adjusted Q4 profit of USD 0.02 per share, a massive GAAP net loss of USD 103.6m is on the books for the full year 2025).

* Price/cash flow ratio (KCV): n/a (Free cash flow is deeply negative for the year. The high cash balance of over USD 100m at the end of the year does not come from the company's own profits, but from constant new financing - such as the over USD 135m in convertible bonds in February 2026).

* Price/sales ratio (P/S ratio): approx. 2.8.
* Price-to-book ratio (P/B ratio): approx. 6.5.
* Dividend yield: 0.0%.
The quality and substance check:
In terms of qualitative growth, the core problem is very clear. Although sales growth is gigantic at over 340 %, the operating margin for the year as a whole is still deep in negative territory. A margin that does not even begin to stably exceed the 5% mark proves that the core business model is not yet scaling profitably financially.
In addition, the company is far from being a real cash machine. There is no free cash flow, which is why there can be no dividend covered by operating income.
Energy Vault is extremely exciting in terms of story (battery storage, gravity storage and now the AI data center fantasy with Crusoe and Peak Energy). The topline growth is real. But according to strict criteria, the value falls mercilessly through the cracks: the story and sales growth are currently much bigger than the bare balance sheet substance and the path to real profitability.

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Keineui@Keineui

7Mês

@Raketentoni That's ok. Nobody has claimed that they are a cash monster or already completely profitable. However, Q4 shows me that the transformation to profitability is almost complete and the outlook also makes me confident. And apparently not only me, as you can see from the share price. The story is intact and therefore my investment case. Did I get in too early? Yup. But will it pay off in 3-5 years? I think so.

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

7Mês

@Keineui it will for sure, I will present a value this afternoon, there is either 10000% or total loss 😆 let yourself be surprised. I'll keep my fingers crossed for you here 👍

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Chris@Multibagger

7Mês

@Raketentoni That sounds like the perfect stock for the multibagger. I love riding the razor's edge with part of my portfolio 😂😎

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

7Mês

@Multibagger This will be a share for you, I guarantee it. A little more patience and I bet nobody had it on their radar 😬

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