7Mês·

The share at the start of the week ✈️🛩️ "Pit stop specialist for airplanes"

Hello my dears,

Thank you for the great comments and many 👍 on my posts yesterday.

That motivated me, and that's why there's a great company right at the beginning of the week that keeps the planes flying. Or rather, let's say it keeps them flying.

A classic aftermarket specialist.

Today, the company is one of the largest independent MRO and spare parts suppliers worldwide.

For airlines, this means that if a jet has a problem, parts are missing or a major inspection is due, the company is one of the players that can step in - quickly, reliably, worldwide.

An airplane only earns money when it flies. Every minute on the ground costs money.

My dears,

But our company is also clearly a defense player - and not just on the sidelines, but as an established, strategically important partner for the US military and allied forces. Current developments even show that it is actively expanding its defense business. actively expand .

Importance in the defense ecosystem

It is not a classic defense manufacturer like Lockheed or Northrop, but an aftermarket specialist for:

military spare parts
repair and maintenance
logistics infrastructure
supply chain management

This makes it a critical enabler of military operational readiness - comparable to a highly specialized "maintenance and logistics backbone" for armed forces.

Strategic classification for us investors

The company benefits in the defense sector from

Stable, long-term government contracts
high barriers to entry (certifications, trust, track record)
growing demand for outsourcing in the military MRO sector
global geopolitical tensions that increase demand for logistics and maintenance services

At the same time, the business remains

less cyclical than Commercial Aviation
High-margin in the aftermarket
politically stable, as DLA and USAF are long-term partners

Dear all, I am of course very interested in your opinion on AAR
$US0003611052 (-0,26%)

As always in the comments.

Aviation service provider increases turnover by 20 % and raises profit margin to 9.6 %!

26.01.2026 at 09 am

AAR Corp [AIR | ISIN US0003611052] is the world's largest independent distributor of aircraft parts for the aviation and defense markets. In addition to the distribution of new parts and the maintenance of aircraft, the company offers a worldwide 24/7 aircraft-on-ground service. It also offers the sale and leasing of used aircraft. Services such as fleet management and the operation of customer-owned aircraft for the US State Department are also provided. The company currently has a market capitalization of USD 4.20 billion.

AAR Corp. is a global aerospace and defense aftermarket solutions company with operations in more than 20 countries. The company supports commercial and government customers through four segments: Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions and Expeditionary Services. The Parts Supply segment primarily includes the sale of used engine and airframe parts and components as well as the sale of new parts. The Repair & Engineering segment primarily comprises the maintenance, repair and overhaul of airframes and components, including landing gear. The Integrated Solutions segment primarily comprises fleet management and the operation of customer-owned aircraft as well as customized, performance-based logistics programs for the supply chain. The Expeditionary Services segment primarily includes products and services that support the transportation of equipment and personnel by the United States and foreign governments and non-governmental organizations.

What is currently driving the share?

The company is benefiting massively from the ageing of global aircraft fleets and the trend towards outsourcing complex maintenance work. As airlines are using their existing aircraft for longer, the demand for spare parts and specialized services is constantly increasing. A new exclusive contract with Pratt & Whitney for the distribution of engine parts secures long-term cash flows. In addition, the recovery in the defense sector and the expansion of capacities in India are driving growth. AAR is leveraging economies of scale to further increase profitability in the current aviation super-cycle.

At the beginning of January, the company delivered a strong second quarter with sales up 20% to USD 712 million and adjusted earnings per share of USD 0.89. The Parts Supply segment in particular flourished. The Parts Supply segment in particular flourished thanks to the integration of Triumph Product Support, which lifted the operating margin to a record level of 9.6%. The company is benefiting greatly from economies of scale: The global footprint (over 20 countries) facilitates procurement. The management explicitly names New Parts Distribution and Trax as high-margin growth areas. Trax is an enterprise software platform for technical airline operations (MRO/engineering). It is used by airlines, MROs and leasing companies to manage maintenance, airworthiness and technical processes end-to-end. Trax has been part of AAR Corp since 2016, and with the acquisition of HAECO Americas, the company has not only secured valuable capacity in the booming airframe heavy maintenance sector, but has also attracted massive capacity utilization and efficiency leverage: The acquisition brought in new contracts worth around USD 850 million, which will fully utilize the sites in Greensboro and Lake City (North Carolina/Florida) for the coming years. The share currently scores 13 out of 15 points in the TraderFox growth check.

AAR earnings slides Q2FY26

Q2 highlights

Sales growth in all segments Achieved above-market growth in new parts sales Expanded operating margins

Portfolio strengthened by two acquisitions
ADI accelerates growth in new parts sales
HAECO Americas expands capacity for comprehensive maintenance and secures long-term contracts
Renewed exclusive new parts distribution agreements with Collins and Arkwin. Achieved new business success with Trax and further expanded digital capabilities
Reduced leverage and maintained strategic flexibility through proactive balance sheet management

USD in millions

Estimates

Year Turnover Change

2024 2.319 16,5 %

2025 2.780 19,91 %

2026 3.212 15,53 %

2027 3.549 10,49 %

2028 3.762 6,01 %

Year EBIT Change

2024 129,2 -3,51 %

2025 185,2 43,34 %

2026 312,8 68,88 %

2027 358,2 14,53 %

2028 396,5 10,7 %

Year Net result Change

2024 46,3 -48,67 %

2025 12,5 -73 %

2026 151 1.108,08 %

2027 194,2 28,62 %

2028 233 19,96 %

Year Net debt CAPEX

2024 970 29,7

2025 938 34,7

2026 857 36,9

2027 744 39,18

2028 508 44,85

Year Free cash flow Change

2024 13,9 324,19 %

2025 1,4 -89,93 %

2026 21,82 1.458,57 %

2027 102,8 371,13 %

2028 143,5 39,59 %

Year EBITDA margin EBIT margin

2024 10,45 % 5,57 %

2025 11,66 % 6,66 %

2026 12,03 % 9,74 %

2027 12,29 % 10,09 %

2028 12,89 % 10,54 %

Year Earnings per share Change

2024 1,29 -49,01 %

2025 0,35 -72,87 %

2026 3,99 1.040 %

2027 4,937 23,73 %

2028 5,83 18,1 %

Year P/E ratio PEG

2024 55x -1.1x

2025 175x 1.8x

2026 29x 0x

2027 23.4x 1x

2028 19.8x 1.1x

Market value 4,511

Number of shares (in thousands) 39,037

Date of publication 16,07,2025

Performance

1 week +2.06 %

1 month +9.96 %

6 months +56.47 %

1 year +79.73 %

$US0003611052 (-0,26%)

12 Comentários

GHF@GHF

7Mês

My dearest, perhaps you should publish a stock market letter with all the treasures you are digging up.
As ASML was stopped out today and I still have some cash left, I'm currently looking for two stocks ... $AAR is definitely very interesting.
The chart development over the last 12 months is definitely great, and the figures also look good for the most part. What I don't like so much is that the margin is not so good compared to other companies in the aviation aftermarket. This, especially in connection with the rapid share price development of the last year, is still keeping me from placing an order. One could expect significant setbacks here.
I think the business model itself is absolutely future-proof and profitable. I come from the industry myself and know that a lot of money can be made around aviation.
Conclusion: Good company, good proposal, will definitely be on the shortlist.
Thank you

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

7Mês

@GHF huhu my dear. What does. c

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GHF@GHF

7Mês

@Tenbagger2024 sorry, I just accidentally hit the enter key

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

7Mês

@GHF I'd love to, I've already had some interesting companies in the last few weeks. Perhaps the small setback at $7012 is also of interest to you. It also has something to do with defense and aircraft

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Max@Maximilian1

7Mês

My dear. To take off

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

7Mês

Well, that's quite a surprise. 😯
After the Grupa Kęty excursion, Mr. Tenbagger has actually dug up a real company that is earning money and growing.
This time we don't have to give him a broadside. On the contrary, this is a solid "pick", but we have to temper his expectations ("Tenbagger") somewhat. It's a "workhorse", not a racehorse.
Here's the analysis for your response to him - fair, sound, but realistic:
✈️ Analysis: AAR Corp (AIR) - The "Workshop Master"
Status: Solid mid-cap, no tech wonder.
Sector: Industry / Aviation Services (MRO).
Write him the following (maybe packaged a little nicer because he did his homework this time):
1. the "Quality Check" (The numbers from his post).
He celebrates the sales growth of 20 % and the margin of 8.6 %. Let's run that through your formula:
* Core Quality Score:
* Revenue Growth: 20% (Strong!)
* Operating Margin: 8.6% (This is okay for this sector, but far from "High Quality" >15%).
* Score: 28.6.
* Verdict: Passed! (>25). Growth saves the thin margin here.
2. the praise (which he sees correctly)
"Hey there Tenbagger,
Respect, that's a hit with substance! AAR Corp is a classic 'pick and shovel' play.
* The thesis is correct: Airplanes are getting older, airlines don't have money for new jets, so the old boxes have to be maintained. AAR benefits massively from this.
* Moat: Parts certifications in aviation are hell. No startup can get in just like that. This protects the business.
* Growth: 20% sales growth is a word.
3. the reality check (why it probably won't be a Tenbagger)
But now take the wind out of his sails before he bets the house and yard:
* Margin problem: An operating margin of 8.6% is 'fighting hard'. This is a labor-intensive business (screws, logistics). If labor costs rise, profits melt away immediately. Compare that with TransDigm (another aircraft parts manufacturer), they have margins of 40%+. AAR is the 'discounter' by contrast.
* Cyclical: When there is a recession and fewer flights, maintenance orders collapse. Airlines then save on 'nice-to-have' services.
* Valuation: The market has already recognized the story. The share is often not cheap. In order to increase tenfold, AAR would either have to triple its margins (unlikely in the service business) or increase sales tenfold (very difficult in a saturated market).
4. the dividend killer (just for your information)
* Dividend: AAR Corp usually pays no or only a tiny dividend (often 0.0% to 0.2%).
* For your portfolio: Out immediately. Completely violates your dividend filter.
* For him: Doesn't matter, he wants price gains.
💡 Conclusion for your answer:
"Good find! This is solid industry quality and benefits greatly from the ageing aircraft portfolio. The figures (20% growth) prove you right.
But watch out for the margins - 8.6% is no cushion. This is a 'blue-collar investment', not a software miracle. Great in the long term, but don't expect miracles overnight."
In short: give him a "👍" for the research, but warn about the low margin. He'll get better!

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

7Mês

@Raketentoni tomorrow there will be another company from this sector. Dear Mr. Prompt, I already have transdigm $TDG in my portfolio

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

7Mês

@Raketentoni huhu. Are you still alive?

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

7Mês

Hi, why? Did I miss something? I was pretty busy today 😂