This morning, I bought my first shares of Sino AG $XTP (+0,47%) at a price of €104. The idea behind this is simple:
- Sino AG’s core business is solid and generates positive cash flow
- Sino also holds a 1.77% stake in Traderepublic
In the most recent transaction in December 2025, Traderepublic was valued at 12.5 billion euros. Sino AG’s 1.77% stake in Traderepublic is therefore worth approximately 221 million euros . Sino AG’s market capitalization currently stands at about 250 million euros.
Thus, about 90% of Sino’s value is backed by its stake in Traderepublic. I expect, however, that the value of this stake will continue to rise over the next 2–3 years. Conservatively, I estimate that Traderepublic will be valued at around 30 billion over the next 2–3 years. The reasons for this are:
- Retirement savings accounts starting in 2027
- Switch of the order system to “best price” and more professional features
- Further rollout and growth in markets already served
Sino’s 1.77% stake could therefore be worth about 500–600 million in 2–3 years. Assuming a 0% valuation for Sino AG’s core business and valuing the company solely based on the value of its stake in Traderepublic, this would result in an annual return of approximately 30% through 2029.
Even with a valuation of “only” 21 billion for Traderepublic in 2029, assuming all other factors remain the same, a return of about 15% per year could still be achieved.
What do you think of this purchase? Would you invest directly in Traderepublic if you could?
Stay tuned,
Yours, Michael Scott
