2Mês·

Take Two

Hi everyone,

I’ve been thinking about investing a larger sum (1/3 of my portfolio’s value) in a rising stock price of $TTWO (-0,11%) since I’m confident the price will rise when GTA VI is released.

However, I don’t want a warrant with a knock-out risk—I’m looking for something more like an option warrant.

But some of these behave very strangely, and many also expire before the GTA VI release.

So I wanted to ask if anyone here has an ISIN or a tip on how I can find the right security that won’t act erratically.

Thanks a lot!

9 Comentários

Epi@Epi

2Mês

So you want to invest 1/3 of your portfolio in a warrant from a company where you're betting on a well-known event with an uncertain market reaction?

Sounds great!

Goforitbutdontblameme!

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Fred@Fred999

2Mês

@Epi Or maybe just the stock after all🤷🏼‍♂️

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Epi@Epi

2Mês

@Fred999 At the very least. The real alternative would be to speculate against yourself and the crowd and bet on falling prices. 🥸

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GHF@GHF

2Mês

Betting 1/3 of your bankroll on a single game’s outcome is a classic casino mindset.
However, at the casino, you should only play games that you actually understand.

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Edi@Edi_lets_go

2Mês

Dangerous. See Cyberpunk 2077

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Chris@1Chrischi1

2Mês

@Techaktien I'm sure you can help with that 😉

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Chris@Multibagger

2Mês

Hi Fred, that doesn't make much sense in this scenario. The release is already priced in. So there can only be a negative reaction if there's a last-minute delay. So you need a warrant that at least captures the initial sales figures—meaning a maturity date through at least March 27. However, with standard warrants, such high implied volatility is already priced in that you’d have virtually no chance of making a significant profit. If I wanted to take a risk here, I’d limit my exposure to 5–10% of my portfolio, enter the position two days before the release date, and choose a knock-out warrant that’s 10–15% below the current price at that time. That way, you have no implied volatility, no premium, no maturity limit, and a better risk-reward ratio.

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Fred@Fred999

2Mês

@Multibagger Thank you!

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Chris@1Chrischi1

2Mês

$6758 might also be interesting, since it will certainly boost console sales.

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