4D
Why make it so complicated? Just use BTC and that's it. 🤷
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@Epi Right now, it’s quite simple in terms of the excess return I expect. But starting in 2027, Treasuries could also become more attractive from a tax perspective. And why don’t I just buy leveraged BTC? Because I don’t like the path- and time-dependence—I’m too sporadic in my monitoring of the price for that.
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•4D
@mitpommes Don't French fry stands also buy BTC on credit? That would give you normal leverage, including time-dependent factors.
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@Epi The market is now penalizing all Treasuries that still buy BTC on credit in the traditional way. Strive $ASST, for example, has €0 in debt; all BTC purchases come primarily from sales of preferred shares and secondarily from share issuances when mNAV >1. Strive is never required to repay the capital from the preferred shares. They have only stated that they will pay a variable dividend—currently 13%—in perpetuity. Naturally, this immediately sets off alarm bells within the traditional financial framework, but the difference is that BTC forms the underlying asset. Whether management is managing the risk of the underlying asset, BTC, reasonably is what you’re banking on. Based on the current dividend yield, the expectation is that BTC will, for the time being (as long as the dividend remains at 13%), perform significantly better than 13% per annum.
The preferred shares on the horizon are precisely why Metaplanet might soon have a reason to rebound.
The preferred shares on the horizon are precisely why Metaplanet might soon have a reason to rebound.
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@Epi Treasuries are essentially similar to leverage on BTC. Currently, Metaplanet’s enterprise value to BTC NAV ratio stands at 0.85. At its peak, however, it has reached as high as 7. With Spot, you receive the BTC you purchased as a one-time payment. With Treasuries, you sometimes get more BTC and a higher valuation. However, the reverse is also true.
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@burnheart Sure. But if I want leverage on BTC, I might as well just buy a BTC leveraged certificate. At least that way, I don't have any management risk. 🤷
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•@Epi There is, after all, a difference compared to leverage: if you fundamentally believe in a bull market but the price drops again beforehand, leverage can sometimes knock you out hard, whereas the treasury doesn’t go bankrupt as quickly. In a bull market, the Treasury can also develop its own momentum and leverage—BTC rises, the mNAV grows -> this creates further financing opportunities to accumulate new BTC, and so on. Even during sideways phases, the Treasury can have advantages. But of course, leverage is transparent and easy to calculate. With Treasury, it’s getting harder and harder to assess everything. And crypto is already volatile enough as it is. But as an alternative, you can also use leverage on the Treasury :-)))
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