5H·

Invest or wait

Hello dear community,

First of all, I would like to thank you all here. I've been here for almost a year now and am trying to learn as much as possible.

I've had some tough times myself and have been rebuilding my portfolio since October. My friends are already saying ironically that I should stop investing because whenever I buy something it falls afterwards. That's why I've spread everything out and everything has really fallen. Even gold.

But that's not the point now. I'm convinced of my satellites in the long term and won't sell anything with a big loss.

What I'm still missing is a core ETF. Here I have chosen the $SPYI (-0,13%) chosen.

Now it's about the right implementation.

My gut feeling tells me that there should be a small setback soon. There has hardly been a year in which it has never gone down and since May it has not even gone down more than 2% without being bought again immediately. Or am I saying the wrong thing here?

I hold over 40% cash and am now thinking about the best way to do this. I know that time in the market answers are coming but do you really think that applies in the current situation? I recently tried going long and short on the Nasdaq-100 for the transition. Unfortunately, the bottom line is that I lost more than I gained. How would you react now? Wait for the setback? Continue long and short in the current situation? Invest 30% in the core immediately and then let the savings plan run? Put everything in and hope that there will be no setback in 2026?

Have a nice weekend everyone!

14Posições

€ 21.074,49

12,09%

30 Comentários

Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

Without wanting to offend you, your friends are right in the sense that you should let it go if you don't change your behavior. Your portfolio history goes back to Nov. 2024, during which time you have made well over 100 sales and partial sales. Every share that went up by more than 3% was sold. With respect, that's not going to work. And according to your own statement, you now have your satellites and are looking for a core. Putting the cart before the horse. I'd like to cheer you up, but you write that your sense of construction is already in play again, which is not exactly the best prerequisite for long-term and successful investing. Yes, of course, sales and purchases are part of it, but the operational hustle and bustle that you have displayed over the last few months won't get you anywhere. Get really!!! clear about what you want, analyze the right stocks, ETFs or whatever and invest and see it through.

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Julien@HappyJulienDay

@Dividendenopi Thank you for taking a close look at this. I think this is a typical mistake for newcomers to the stock market. That's why my satellites are standing despite the negative return and now a core is coming around and running.

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Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

@HappyJulienDay ok, let's get started. I'm not an ETF specialist, but your core looks reasonable. You now have your satellites nicely equally weighted, 40% would be a good 8k measured against your portfolio. Take half of that and get in and hold what the market demands of you. Add your monthly savings rate on the core. Use the rest of the cash for targeted acquisitions to the core if your gut feeling allows it, but not everything. And then let it run. In a year's time, you are welcome to report on how things have developed. Either we all cry together here or look forward to a mutual exchange

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BeachPlease@BeachPlease

@Dividendenopi No crying in the Casino! 🤣

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Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

@BeachPlease immediately reminded me of a-ha "crying in the rain". Boomer music, but not my favorite.

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Dukke@Dukke

Execute your chosen ETF as a monthly savings plan and stick with it for at least 10 years, no trading, only savings plan, no selling.

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GHF@GHF

Spread your 40% cash over a savings plan of nine to twelve months if you don't trust Time in Market.

@DonkeyInvestor has written a good article on selling loss-makers or negative positions. You can find it either in the evergreens or in his profile.

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Darkwing Donkey@DonkeyInvestor

@GHF or here #fehlkauf 👍

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

I am firmly convinced that a correction is coming!

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Julien@HappyJulienDay

@Sansebastian within the next 2 months or can this continue sideways into the fall?

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

@HappyJulienDay If you look at the correction in 2022, it could well go into the fall. But I wouldn't rely on that

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Mike_Invest@Mike_Invest

Hi, unfortunately your portfolio is a good example of the thesis "back and forth empties your pockets". Work on your strategy, your goals and see investing as a marathon and not a sprint... Invest the €500 you mentioned boringly and monthly in the ETF you have chosen (broadly diversified - top). Build a good base, increase your savings rate if possible. If you want to invest in individual stocks, I would only invest in them from a mid 5-digit sum. That's just my opinion...

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Hodlinvestor@Hodlinvestor

How long do you want to keep the Core?
Longer than 10 years? Then put everything in now. Or on Monday!

There have been situations like the current one in the past and they became irrelevant in market terms a little later.
Sure, there may be a 10% dip. Then you'll be up about 15% right away. But maybe not and then you wait for the next dip. When it comes, you tell yourself it's going down even further....

I hope you know what I'm getting at.

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Julien@HappyJulienDay

@Hodlinvestor Yes, I know what you mean. I'm just a bit shaken. Everything I've bought has dropped -20%. At least I don't want the core to start like this. At best, my holding period is forever. I'm now 41 years old. But you never know what will happen. Buying a car in about 5 years. Should I then buy cash or not touch shares and start financing. I'll decide when the time comes. I live frugally and can save an average of around €500 a month. Depending on whether I treat myself or not.

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Stefan@Da_Fischi

@HappyJulienDay You're only investing money that you won't need for at least the next 10-15 years.
The $SPYI is a great all-rounder, you can't really go wrong with it. Set up a monthly or weekly savings plan (consistently!) and wait and see.
If you need to buy a car in 5 years' time, please put the necessary amount for the car separately in an overnight or fixed-term deposit account.

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BeachPlease@BeachPlease

There will probably be more than just a small dip.
Personally, I would hold cash, but you seem to me to be a bit of a nervous character, so let the savings plan take care of that 😅
I would advise against derivatives without strategy and discipline.

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Julien@HappyJulienDay

@BeachPlease Thanks for your assessment.
Well, I wouldn't describe myself as nervous. Last year in April I was fully invested in the crash and had just started. I didn't sell anything out of panic because I was nervous, but I had a very bad start and don't want to get into a situation like that again. That's why I've never just let everything go. I had held Qualcomm for 1 year with a loss. Then it went up for 1 day on good news and then I got out. If I hadn't done that, I would still be in it. Apart from the top 20 tech stocks, I don't think anything has risen sustainably for a year.

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BeachPlease@BeachPlease

Perfect example: You held Qualcomm for a year with a loss and then sold it because of good news. You were emotional because frustration was probably building up.
You have to learn to switch off your emotions and there are three ways to do this, in my view.
Stoically hodl ETFs/funds in the knowledge that the market historically only knows the way up.
Fundamental analysis in the knowledge that a company will do well if you get in.
Technical analysis in the knowledge that a trend reversal is very likely.
Some form of this reliable knowledge must justify your investments. Otherwise you will always find yourself in a situation where you don't know exactly how to go about it. And then your gut feeling kicks in again and that is deadly!

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Julien@HappyJulienDay

@BeachPlease I used Qualcomm as an example because I had practically sold at the peak of the last 12 months and now the stock is already at the 52-week low again. I was over 30% invested in this stock at the time and was practically stuck for 12 months. But I had waited until the right moment. I meant that I had not traded nervously beforehand. I was certainly nervous about the Tekekom trade. I sold when I got above 0 and the share went up another 20% afterwards. You never know what will happen. But with what I have in my portfolio now, I think that all of them should be higher in the next 5 years than when I started.

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BeachPlease@BeachPlease

@HappyJulienDay So once again: with a strategy you know when you can get in. Pick one or more and stick to it.
Then you know what you need to do now.

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Julian@MoneyISnotREAL

@HappyJulienDay
➡️"I was over 30% invested in this stock at the time and was practically stuck for 12 months."

I don't understand that. The share was tradable every trading day, wasn't it? 12 months ... look at the DotCom bubble and the subsequent financial crisis - or even earlier. Called the "lost decade", the global market stagnated for 10 years. Research the "sunk cost fallacy".

I have read several comments and your article. I think you should familiarize yourself with the basic principles of securities trading/capital markets, as well as the basic financial pillars such as safe investments, risky investments, the different types of risk (market risk vs. individual value risk), visible and invisible risk, (risk) indicators in the capital market (volatility, drawdown, sharperatio, ...) and then expand your knowledge to include company key figures (such as P/E ratios, ...).

You yourself are the biggest risk to your wealth accumulation. With all the "negatives":

You have recognized it and want to improve it. You have mastered the first emotional, critical (short) phases and have remained true to your investment. 💪 Your wealth will probably not be visible tomorrow, but years from now. Discipline, a lack of emotion, trust and a solid strategy are possible key pillars for your success.

Your biggest return boost in your portfolio - depending on your age - will be your savings rate and therefore your income. If you increase your income (e.g. better qualifications, ...), you will have greater leverage for the portfolio than if you look for a single share, which may perform a few percent better than the market (and especially: does it always do this?!).

I see your cash component more as limiting your risk/loss to the total assets. Protection for yourself.

➡️ To your question:
By core, I would mean a globally diversified, transparent, low-cost ETF. There is no one right way, as everyone has a different subjective perception of risk.

Rational: Invest today rather than tomorrow.

Emotionally: there are as many options as there are people on the planet... A few thoughts:
a) 50% into the core via one-off purchase - 50% over 6-12 months via savings installments
b) several one-off purchases in defined scenarios, e.g. in the event of setbacks of -10%, -15%, -20%. If they do not occur, then e.g. quarterly amount X

However: You are investing because you have a positive return expectation, so variant b) would rationally be exactly the opposite of why you are investing. I question whether you will catch this exact moment anyway. In addition, you have to make the DECISION "do I invest?" every time. Each time you are your own biggest risk.

I myself handle it like in a), a solid mixture of rationality and emotionality for me. It lets me sleep in peace and I have the discipline to go through with it.

If you want to play with shares: make 2 portfolios.
-One portfolio runs your savings plan on the core
-in the other portfolio you trade your shares

Good luck with the process!

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Julian@MoneyISnotREAL

@HappyJulienDay Addition. I've only just seen that.

With €24,000 invested capital and around €1,000 trading costs > 4.17% wasted return.

Reduce your number of trades, reduce the fees. You have this return directly, without additional risk.

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BeachPlease@BeachPlease

@MoneyISnotREAL 1k costs are hefty for the investment amount 😆 Will be the spread of the stock exchange, there are virtually no more fees - except for banks.
@HappyJulienDay A stock is generally only traded on the respective home exchange, i.e. Nasdaq, Nyse/Wallstreet, Xetra, TSE, TSX, LSE etc.. Liquidity is always highest there, which leads to sharper price peaks and a lower spread.

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Julien@HappyJulienDay

@BeachPlease That was actually 1000 trades for €1 each. I mostly bought more when something dropped. Or short-term short, long trades. But the bottom line is that the fees were higher than the return. Otherwise, my shares would be far worse off at the moment. Cost average and all that. But €1000 in 12 months is too much and can't be offset by returns. I am aware of that.

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BeachPlease@BeachPlease

@HappyJulienDay Holy Shit 😆

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Ruben Schoff@Sand

The spyi is definitely a first-class choice. I also still hold some cash of around 35 percent and invest it in a 36-month savings plan or increase it as soon as the market drops. One-off would be historically more ideal but I feel better staggered.

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Echsenkönig A.@Bezehgombjuderstimme

So without wanting to offend you, you should rethink your strategy. I don't think I've seen a single portfolio on this platform where every position is in the red 😅. I would stop trading and speculating completely. I would keep everything you have and only save 1-3 ETFs from now on. And you can let your cash quota run into your savings plans over the next 6-12 months. If you ask me, do 60 world, 25% EM and 15% Europe and you're done. Then you don't have to think about it anymore and you'll be back on a green branch 😃👍🏻

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Echsenkönig A.@Bezehgombjuderstimme

@Bezehgombjuderstimme PS. I say that as someone who has also only made losses on average with individual stocks 🫠

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Julien@HappyJulienDay

@Bezehgombjuderstimme I am not ashamed of it. It should also show beginners that shares do not automatically mean higher returns. Even moats like mine prove the opposite. As I said... My friends say everything has gone down the drain since I started. But now I'm hanging in there. I don't think anything will go up for another 10 years.

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Echsenkönig A.@Bezehgombjuderstimme

14min

@HappyJulienDay No, there are some good titles. And hopefully Bitcoin will still go to the moon

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