At the Börse strange things keep happening, but the current phase has a different dimension. Is it now coming to Moody's a reversal?
Madness reigns
It's nothing new that the craziest things happen on the stock market. However, what is currently happening has a whole new dimension.
The frequency of completely senseless price movements has probably never been higher - at least not in my almost two decades on the stock market.
Aktien Stock prices suddenly collapse for no apparent reason and vice versa. Moody's is certainly not an extreme example, but the events are significant.
The share has been trending sideways for months Volatilität sideways. The last quarterly figures were published in October and there has been no significant news since then.
Therefore, the Seitwärtsbewegung was easy to understand, especially with regard to the major indices. Today, the S&P500 is still trading at the same level as in October last year and has barely moved in the meantime. In some cases, the Indexeffectively stood still for weeks.
As a result, traders seem to be blindly pouncing on any stock that moves. The main thing is to be able to play any trend. The direction doesn't seem to matter at all.
The trend is your friend
This was also the case with Moody's. In mid-January, share prices slowly crumbled and at the beginning of February the share then temporarily went into free fall. Within a very short space of time, the share price plummeted from USD 546 to USD 402.
Twenty-five billion dollars in market capitalization vanished into thin air.
Of course, you can find reasons for this if you look for them. The competition presented poor figures or a disappointing outlook. And then there's also KI. So you always have an argument for everything.
And, of course, the banks and research houses are not to be missed. There was no news or even quarterly figures from Moody's, but if S&P has a weak quarter and Moody's share price has already fallen, then of course a downgrade will follow.
It's just stupid when Moody's comes around the corner and clearly exceeds the forecasts.
Surprise
As we have known for a few hours now, fourth quarter earnings of USD 3.64 per share were well above expectations of USD 3.46. With sales of USD 1.90 billion, analysts' estimates of USD 1.88 billion were also exceeded.
For the year as a whole, this corresponds to a 13% increase in sales and a 39% jump in profits.
However, this would now be an embarrassing affair if Moody's had been downgraded for no reason last week and the Kursziel from USD 574 to USD 471. Fortunately, nobody did that, or did they?
This is all the more true as Moody's growth momentum has recently increased. For the financial year as a whole, sales growth was 9%, but in the third quarter it was 11% and in the final quarter 13%.
If the company were really in trouble, things would look different.
If you look at things in more detail, this picture is reinforced. On pages 3 and 4 of the Quartalsberichts (Link), the Group's eight individual segments are broken down in detail.
In fact, 8 out of 8 Group divisions recorded growth in the last financial year and also in the final quarter.
Outlook and valuation
On the bottom line, Moody's was able to increase earnings by 20 % to USD 14.94 per share in the 2025 financial year.
The company is also optimistic about the future. Costs are expected to increase in the mid-single-digit percentage range and thus at a slower rate than sales, which are expected to grow in the high single-digit percentage range.
In plain language, this means that profitability will increase.
Earnings are expected to rise from USD 14.94 to USD 16.40 - 17.00 per share and free cash flow from USD 2.57 billion to USD 2.80 - 3.00 billion.
In turn, USD 2.00 billion of this is to be invested in share buy-backs, and the remainder is likely to be largely distributed as dividends. Dividende be distributed.
Moody's thus arrives at a forward P/E of 25.3, which is justifiable in view of the company's double-digit growth rates, high profit margins and global position.
Over many years, the P/E has hovered around 28.8. In the last five years, the P/E has averaged 34
Moody's share: chart from 18.02.2026, price: USD 423.22 - symbol: MCO | Source: TWS
The surprisingly strong quarterly figures and the outlook could now trigger a recovery towards USD 450. However, clear positive signals only emerge above USD 450.
However, if Moody's falls below USD 425, further price losses towards USD 400 must be expected. Below this level, the chart picture would become even gloomier, which could result in downside potential to USD 378 or USD 368.
Business model
The business is divided into two core areas: Moody's Investors Service assesses the creditworthiness of countries, companies and financial instruments, while Moody's Analytics provides data, software and models that help financial players to understand and manage risks.
The two divisions are in turn divided into eight lines of business, all of which deal with analysis, data and risk in different ways. Risiko data and risk management.
In addition to traditional rating services, these include risk management software, economic research, regulatory solutions for banks and insurers, financial market data, training and consulting.
In addition, services for portfolio management and tools for evaluating complex financial products.
Each division provides a building block to enable investors to make well-founded decisions and manage risks efficiently
Source
