Following the ongoing price correction, the $SIKA (-4,28%) more attractive than before, but still faces challenges. Sika seems fundamentally intact and offers an attractive dividend history. The share is fairer after the correction, but still not cheap (historically yes, by sector comparison no)
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Facts: đđ
The decline is primarily cyclical and currency-related, which hopefully signals a temporary pause in growth:
- Construction crisis: High interest rates slow down construction activity worldwide, therefore organic growth in H1 2025 only 0,6% (target corridor: 6-8%).
- Currency effects: Sika generates a significant portion of its sales in the USA (e.g. -4.3% foreign currency effect in H1 2025).
- Valuation + growth premium: The historically high growth momentum cannot be maintained in the short term, hence valuation too high - there are cheaper alternatives in the sector.
However, the operational quality and dividend stability appear intact (forecast 2025)
Dividend growth (Ă 10 yrs) ~12.25% p.a.
- Excellent: Confirms Sika as a dynamic dividend growth stock.
Current dividend yield ~2.08%
- Higher than historical average - buy signal due to correction?
Payout ratio (profit) ~45.2%
- Sustainable: Dividend is stably covered by profit, room for further growth.
EBITDA margin (H1 2025) 18.9%
- Strong pricing power: margin remains high despite sales pressure.
â Pro post-purchase (relatively attractive price)
- Expected recovery (growth price): The stock is pricing in strong earnings growth (EPS CAGR ~14.45% to 2027). The estimated P/E ratio 2027e is approx. 18.
- Buy quality: People are now buying the high-margin quality and market leadership at a discount to the highs.
â Contra subsequent purchase (high residual premium)
- P/E ratio 2025e: With an estimated P/E ratio of ~29 for 2025, Sika is still sportily valued compared to cyclical competitors.
- Persistent macro pressure: If the construction crisis persists for longer, the share could remain under pressure until growth returns.
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It sounds a bit like a first-time buy plus savings plan, doesn't it? đ¤
Does anyone else have an opinion on Sika?
