5D·

Receive a dividend

A 12% dividend based on the current price. Just wanted to mention it... 😉

I know—I’m the only one here who’s invested, along with two other people. And yes, I know that a dividend isn’t guaranteed. 😅

15.10

Ses Sa FDR

Recebido x1000 Dividendos em € 0,25

€ 250,00

12 Comentários

Epi@Epi

-27% YTD based on the current price. Just wanted to mention it... 😉

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

@Epi Yeah, I know. It’s not exactly a high-flyer right now (well, maybe a rocket that’s veered off course and is heading toward the ground), but things used to be different. Personally, I believe in the company—the Luxembourg government’s stake alone is enough to ensure its survival in my view (as is its participation in the European Union’s IRIS2 project).

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Harry@FunHarry

@Epi 2.65% plus price gain

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Donkey Diktator@DonkeyInvestor

@Epi Spielverderber

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Epi@Epi

@DonkeyInvestor Selber!

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Donkey Diktator@DonkeyInvestor

@Epi Spiegel

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Epi@Epi

@DonkeyInvestor Damn! You got me again! 😤

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

I'll post this here instead of in D :) Maybe some of you will find it interesting to see what the analysts are writing:

I find SES more interesting than its stock price would suggest. But for us, it’s not a pure dividend play right now—despite the double-digit dividend yield—but rather a turnaround/deleveraging play with a space infrastructure angle.

The stock price has fallen so sharply for several reasons:

- The traditional TV/media satellite market is experiencing structural decline. By 2024, SES’s media segment had already fallen by 5.3%. This is the old core business, and the market is increasingly valuing this segment as a former growth business. SES
- In 2025, Intelsat was acquired for approximately $2.6 billion. While this has made SES significantly larger and strategically stronger, it has also massively increased its debt. At the end of 2025, adjusted net debt stood at around €6.0 billion, with net leverage at 3.9x. SES
- In H1 2026, leverage actually rose to 4.4x. At the same time, adjusted free cash flow was –€130 million. This is a warning sign for a dividend stock. SEC
- Then, on July 30, came the real shock: Q2 revenue of €755 million instead of the expected €794 million, causing the stock to drop by over 17% at one point. Management cited delayed contracts but nevertheless maintained its full-year forecast. Euronext
- In addition, there were technical issues with the early O3b-mPOWER satellites: The first six have a shorter lifespan and lower capacity than originally expected. SES
- And, of course, Starlink looms as a competitive threat.

A small portion of the most recent price decline, however, is trivial: SES went ex-dividend on October 13, with a dividend of €0.25 per share. At a share price of around €4, that’s already a noticeable discount.

Does SES have a future?

Yes, definitely.
The real question isn’t whether SES will survive, but whether its transformation will generate enough returns to justify its debt and high capital expenditures.
The future business looks significantly better than the old TV business.
In H1 2026, €1.2 billion in new contracts and renewals were secured, and the backlog stands at €6.4 billion. Growth is coming particularly from Aviation, Government & Defense, and multi-orbit connectivity.

Of particular interest:
O3b mPOWER is now complete. Satellites 11–13 were successfully launched on September 13. This eliminates a major execution risk. SES
SES is also developing meoSphere, a new generation of MEO satellites slated for around 2030. In addition, SES plays a central role in IRIS² and is thus positioning itself directly in the European sovereign space sector.

Government/Defense is also performing strongly. In H1 2026, orders were received from the U.S. Space Force, among others.

And then there’s a very big wild card:
SES could receive approximately $5.6 billion in gross incentive payments from the release of Upper C-band spectrum in the U.S. if the release is implemented accordingly by 2030/31. This could massively reduce debt.

For me, this is one of the most interesting aspects of the entire SES story.

And now for the dividend --> This is where it gets exciting.
SES has once again announced a minimum of €0.50 per Class A share for FY2026. At a share price of roughly €4.2 following Friday’s jump, this corresponds to a gross yield of approximately 11.9%.
That’s, of course, incredibly attractive.
But this is exactly where I’d hit the brakes: The dividend is currently not covered by the free cash flow generated in the first half of the year.

H1 2026:
- Adjusted operating cash flow: €522 million
- Adjusted FCF: –€130 million
- Net leverage: 4.4x SEC
As a result, SES currently fails to meet our dividend criteria. For our dividend portfolio, we require not only a yield of ≥6%, but also sustainable coverage and manageable debt.

At the moment, I would view SES more as a D-turnaround/deleveraging case:

Bull Case: Intelsat synergies work out, mPOWER delivers growth, Aviation/Government segments grow, IRIS² launches, C-Band generates billions, and net leverage falls toward 3x. Then the market is likely to completely reevaluate SES.

Bear Case: Integration remains difficult, the media sector shrinks faster, Capex stays high, FCF remains weak, and debt declines too slowly. Then, at some point, the 12% dividend will no longer be credible.

My traffic light:
Strategic Future 🟢
Government/Defense 🟢
Multi-Orbit/MEO 🟢
Backlog 🟢
Valuation 🟢
Dividend Level 🟢🟢
Dividend Coverage 🔴
Debt 🟠
Current FCF 🔴
Starlink Competition 🟠
Turnaround Potential 🟢

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

@Raketentoni Unfortunately, I can't leave both a heart AND a rocket as a reaction—so, given the topic and my username, I'm going with the rocket! 😅

Thanks so much for the detailed analysis; it helps me make sense of my own thoughts a bit. I’ll probably pick up a few more altcoins—especially if the price dips a bit in the meantime. For me, though, it always depends on whether I have the cash on hand to buy at the right time.

SES is more of an oddball in my portfolio—basically the only “tech gamble” among otherwise very boring individual stocks. 🙂

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@NichtRelevant I'll keep an eye on it, too, and maybe add a few shares to my speculative portfolio :) I might even post an analysis on Di..rd sometime.

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

@Raketentoni That sounds absolutely great!

All in all, though, I think your analysis and summary here are actually pretty good. I almost think it’s a bit of a shame that it’s now “just” filed away as a reply. Maybe you’d like to move it back up to the “main feed,” since it’s actually way too valuable to be buried in the replies.

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@NichtRelevant I'll be highlighting the German space market in the next few days anyway—it used to be three stocks, but now there are four :) I'll just add SES to the list.

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