2D·

Novo Nordisk crash or future

Novo Nordisk will remain a heavyweight in the healthcare sector in 2026. Anyone getting in now is betting on sustainable growth in the obesity market and regulatory stability.

I tell it like it is:

I judge by numbers, not opinions. And the fact is that everything "still" looks good so far.

Sales growth? Strong so far.
Competition? To be taken seriously, but not yet at eye level.
Valuation? "High" for some, but not irrational if you believe in scaling.

However, always remain realistic and diversify.

Let's see how it turns out.

What is your opinion?

20 Comentários

Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

@Multibagger two more days like that and I'd be looking for a short, or what do you think?

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Pawfolio@Pawfolio

@Klein-Anleger Shorting growing cash flow has never worked...

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

@Pawfolio shortening falling margins, on the other hand... 😉

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Pawfolio@Pawfolio

@Klein-Anleger Unfortunately, you have made a small mistake in your thinking.
As long as growth is higher than margin pressure, FCF can rise.
Do you also want to deny the correlation between FCY and share price?
Go short, then your name will probably remain the program...

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

@Pawfolio But as long as the forecasts and prospects are cut quarter by quarter, the growth is ultimately not that high 😉
Thank you that my name even says it all! 😊

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Pawfolio@Pawfolio

@Klein-Anleger now you are confusing sales growth, profit growth and FCF growth...

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

@Pawfolio In fact, revenue growth, profit growth and free cash flow are interrelated 😉
When there is a profit warning, this usually also has an impact on FCF... 💶

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Pawfolio@Pawfolio

@Klein-Anleger That's exactly where your mistake lies.
Free cash flow also depends on investments and the reduction of liabilities, among other things. Since lower costs are expected in 2025/2026, FCF will grow by 25%.
Do you really think this market reaction of 10% in two days is coming from private investors?
But it's okay, just shorten... I'm long with 30k 😉

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

@Pawfolio Lets see, maybe you're right!
After the valley of tears that most Novo Nordisk shareholders had to go through, as long as I'm not short, I don't begrudge you any percentage 👍
I haven't looked into the company in any depth, I've just seen the forecast adjustments time and again. There is also currently an active downward trend. That's why I'm weighing up whether to go short in the short term.

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Chris@Multibagger

@Pawfolio What you write is completely correct in purely mathematical terms. However, in many cases the stock market is more psychology than mathematics. After the price rally, the slightest miss was enough to trigger larger sell orders. Above all, the pressure on margins can already be measured in real terms. It remains to be seen whether sales growth will be able to compensate for this in the long term when $LLY launches its pill on the market in three months' time. And DT is not on good terms with Danish companies at the moment. I would go short the day before the figures at the latest, unless there has already been a correction.

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DocTrader@value_crafter_1628

@Multibagger Correct. 2 pharmaceutical heavyweights produce almost the same drugs, which are very fashionable. The main market is undoubtedly the USA, whose alimentarily overstuffed citizens have so far been willing to dig deep into their pockets to "treat" themselves to weight loss injections or, in future, pills. DT has already massively pushed down prices for Novo in the future. So who will win the race: the Danes or the US company Big Pharma Lilly? 😉I don't think you need to think too long to find the answer.
There is another highly relevant problem for anyone betting on the European market: we also have enough well-to-do potential customers here. But: as a doctor with direct experience of these products, I am sorry to report that Germans in particular are much more price-sensitive and are hardly prepared to pay so much even for medicines. The health insurance companies are still struggling and only pay as a special regulation for diabetes. There are far fewer obese people in Asia and we can leave Africa out of the equation anyway. Phew.... The market could become thin..... Even if I am already of the opinion that rising prices are currently still possible, driven less by facts and figures and more by sentiment.... Good luck

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Ver todas as 2 restantes respostas

Sansebastian@Sansebastian

The valuation is anything but high

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capital_shephard@capital_shephard

@Sansebastian Some see them as "high"

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fund_navigator_elshq@fund_navigator_elshq

P/E ratio 14 is a rather reasonable valuation I would say.

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SheldonCooper@TaSC

Super company 👍🏽 Heavyweight in the sector. Currently up 20%, plus a personal distribution of 3.8% per annum currently 🤷🏽‍♂️📈

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Ramon L.@Sambava

I wonder why many people are against Novo Nordisk. Is it because is an European company? It's about time that the company will reach its highest price again.

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Bond_James_0815@Bond_James_0815

Re-entry used

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Datamous1996@Datamous1996

23H

Good dividend for a good price I see 🙂

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