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🚗 Tesla & Vision-Only: Unassailable data advantage?

$TSLA (+0.87%) is pursuing a radical approach to autonomous driving: Vision-only - i.e. without LiDAR or radar, using only cameras and AI. And the amazing thing is: It works.

But why will Tesla be hard to catch up with for years to come?

📊 Tesla's data lead is not just big - it is growing exponentially

Thanks to millions of vehicles worldwide, Tesla collects huge amounts of real image and driving data every day, which flows directly back into AI training. No other player - neither Waymo, nor Apple, nor XPeng - can even come close to this amount of real, uncensored edge cases.

🔁 This leads to a flywheel effect:

More data → better model → more user trust → more usage → even more

Tesla doesn't just have a head start - it has an exponential curve that excludes others.

If you want to overtake Tesla in the vision-only stack, you need:

Millions of vehicles worldwide,
a scalable end-to-end AI,
an OTA infrastructure,
and above all: time. A lot of time.

📅 Nobody will be able to do this before 2030.

Compared to LiDAR 12 k USD per vehicle, this system will be worth 400 USD imo.

I would now neglect safety concerns, as national authorities are actually obliged to approve anything that drives 1.x times safer than a human. Tesla drives 8x safer. In this scenario, therefore, it is not the safer tech - i.e. LiDAR - that wins, but the 20x cheaper one.

What do you think?

16 Comments

Darth Vader@TheRealDarthVader

As long as Musk is Ceo is an unnecessary risk. Apple needed Jobs for the foundation and the vision but the calm Cook gave the stock the blatant return!

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@TheRealDarthVader no. Only Musk can do that. If he's gone, I'm out

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@TheRealDarthVader incomparable - you are comparing a product design with product development

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Darth Vader@TheRealDarthVader

@PaulPK uh no I compare the two Ceo of Apple and the respective stock performance!

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DerMartin@DerMartin

BYD currently sells more vehicles and fulfills your requirements. And their CEO is not a drug-addicted narcissist

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@DerMartin Byd is not Vision only

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@DerMartin and that is the future everything else is expensive garbage

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DerMartin@DerMartin

@PaulPK How do you determine that?

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@DerMartin is in the article - imo uncatchable and an economic monopoly

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Tom@Tom_laeuft

Where do these assumptions come from, or is it your own opinion? I have read many reports where Tesla's system lags far behind the others. It is inaccurate and prone to errors. And I very much doubt that Tesla's system will be hard to catch up with for years to come.

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@Tom_laeuft these assumptions always come exclusively from me - based on in-depth research

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@Tom_laeuft so it's not like I'm telling you garbage here

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@Tom_laeuft you should rethink your dividend strategy - see my other post

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Tom@Tom_laeuft

@PaulPK My dividend strategy is just right for me.

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Tom@Tom_laeuft

@PaulPK You should do more research. There's a lot of nonsense in your post. I get the impression you want it to be like that because you think the share is great.

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PaulPK@PaulPK

@Tom_laeuft You could be more specific :)

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