My assessment as a layman with close personal ties to Hungary:
Gedeon Richter's current share price reflects the optimism that Orbán will be voted out of office on Sunday.
The shares will probably fall on Monday in both cases:
If Péter Magyar wins, Orbán will cling on to power. Either he will be elected president before the new parliament is constituted or there will be violent uprisings à la Bolsonaro and a storming of the Capitol.
If Orbán wins, the optimism of recent weeks will be corrected in share prices.
It should not be underestimated how strong Orbán's support is among the uneducated population in the countryside, how strong the Russian influence on the election campaign is and how unfair the electoral system and constituencies have become under Orbán (in the last election, Fidesz got a two-thirds majority in parliament with half the vote).
In Hungary, every few years there is great optimism that Orbán will be overcome after all, and then often nothing comes of it.
I will gladly return to Richter as soon as the situation becomes clearer and we can build on certainties.
[PS: my sale was unfortunately with a large spread; the ask price was already at €34.40]
