Hello my dears,
I am not Dirk Müller, and I don't want to spread panic here. But I would still like to share this exciting report from the shareholder with you.
" Because I care about the community "
My dears, I myself invest directly in Bitcoin.
Or in companies that trade in it, like $COIN (+1,33%) coinbase, and $DEFI (-0,11%) Defi Technology.
The hype surrounding companies that fill their balance sheets with Bitcoin is starting to crack. A new analysis by K33 Research reveals an alarming development: every fourth listed company with significant Bitcoin reserves is now trading at a discount to its digital treasures on the stock exchange.
The core problem lies in the so-called "market-to-net asset value" (mNAV). If this value is less than one, the stock market value of a company is less than the pure value of the Bitcoin held. It becomes virtually impossible for these companies to raise fresh capital for further Bitcoin purchases. "If companies are trading below their net asset value, new share issues have a dilutive effect," explains Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33. In plain language: the company would issue more shares of ownership than it receives in value in the form of Bitcoin - a bad deal.
The crash at NAKA, a merger vehicle of KindlyMD and Nakamoto Holdings, is particularly dramatic. The share lost 96% from its record high, and the mNAV multiplier collapsed from an incredible 75 to just 0.7. But NAKA is not an isolated case. Prominent names such as the Tether-backed company Twenty One and Semler Scientific are now also trading below the value of their Bitcoin holdings.
Even industry leader MicroStrategy under pressure
Although the average mNAV multiple in the sector still appears high at 2.8, this picture is distorted. Smaller companies are increasingly under water, while only the largest players still have significant premiums. But even the industry's heavyweight, Michael Saylor's Strategy, is feeling the headwind. The premium on the value of Bitcoin has fallen to 1.26 - the lowest level since March 2024.
The consequence is already noticeable: the scope for MicroStrategy to finance new Bitcoin purchases via the stock market is shrinking. "This reduces MicroStrategy's ability to substantially acquire BTC and indicates much lower demand from one of the most important buyers of the past year," says Lunde. The numbers confirm this trend: so far in September, "Bitcoin treasurers" have been buying an average of just 1,428 BTC per day - the slowest pace since May.
Back to normality?
However, analysts like Lunde also see this development as a rational market correction. "Companies that act as pure accumulation vehicles for Bitcoin should not be traded at a premium to their balance sheet due to the cost of advisors, management and complex capital structures," he argues. The only exception is when the core operating business benefits directly from the high Bitcoin holdings.
For the Bitcoin price, this could mean that the market emancipates itself from the artificial demand from company balance sheets and returns to a more organic demand from ETFs and private investors.
