6D·

Gold as an underestimated investment...? 🤔

How often have I heard in the past that gold is only an investment for "prophets of doom" and generally rather "stupid" as it pays no dividends. And in fact, if you look at the average investor, hardly anyone is invested in gold. Neither indirectly via mining shares nor directly. An exception might be a couple of gold coins sitting in a safe deposit box somewhere, but understandably not traded.


👉🏻 But does the performance of the last quarter of a century justify this reputation?


A very clear no! ... A look at the absolute gold price performance since 2000:


Gold: approx. +980%

S&P 500: approx. +262%


If you now take dividends into account (see also screenshot), the difference is no longer quite as significant, but is still clear:


Gold: approx. +980%

S&P 500: approx. +600%


Wnyone who was not invested (in whatever form) has missed out! 📈


👉🏻 So the question is what happens next?


I dare to take a look into my cloudy crystal ball 🔮... I remain optimistic about gold for 3 reasons:


1️⃣ increasingly loose monetary policy worldwide - constant and accelerating devaluation of fiat currencies (euro / USD / yen)

2️⃣ National banks as drivers of demand in the past and present (especially China, Russia & India, but also the ECB)

3️⃣ Demand from private households is increasing. The sharp rise in the price of gold in recent months has brought gold to the attention of the public.


📈 In the short and medium term, a small correction or consolidation at the high level would not really be surprising, but in the long term I see the price of gold at 5,000 dollars rather than 3,000 dollars an ounce. What do you think?


$4GLD (-1,78%)
$CSPX (+0,42%)

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48 Comentários

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Do a 50- or 100-year comparison! 😅
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@Epi Since I won't live that long, I'm more interested in how gold will perform against the S&P500 over the next 25 years.

For the reasons mentioned above, I see a clear advantage for gold ... and will continue to do so 😉
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@Part_Time_Joe Well, look for the charts showing the 25 years after a 25-year boom in gold! 😅

Or leave it and be surprised by the disadvantages of the recency bias! 😏
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@Epi You are free not to invest in gold... I do and have done very well with it. 👍🏼
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@Part_Time_Joe Haha, if you only knew how much gold I have in my portfolio! 😂
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@Part_Time_Joe You can also simply use any other 25-year period, 1995-2020 or whatever. It's a nice gimmick to push the comparison period to 2 points in time that are as unrepresentative as possible, but to base your future return expectations on this... you just have to want to.
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@geht-nicht I don't extrapolate from past performance to future performance. Who does that?

I have already written the reasons why I believe that gold will also outperform in the future
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@Epi Why do you hold gold if you think it will underperform? What is the point?
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@Part_Time_Joe I hold gold because I was convinced in 2018 that it would outperform. I bought more until 2022 and have been holding since then. I am no longer convinced that it will outperform in the next 10 years.

Why? My price target of USD 4500 has almost been reached. This is the result of the last cycles.
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@Part_Time_Joe that may be, but a 25-year comparison of the last 25 years is not really meaningful for the next 25 years. You would still have to use a longer period of time as there have always been different periods/cycles. Who says that the next 25 years will not be the same as the last 25 years before 2000?
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@BamBamInvest

Summary of average annual returns

the last 50 years (approx. 1975-2025)

- S&P 500: approx. 9-11% per year (total return).
- Gold: approx. 6-8 % per year (price return).

This does not mean that gold will perform worse over the next 25 years; it would have been interesting to include a few more 25-year periods as well ✌️
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Ver todas as 2 restantes respostas
Stupid chart. Nice start to the dotcom bubble.
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The time period is really distorted, starting at the equity peak of the dotcom bubble and at the gold low, and ending in the late gold cycle of the post-2020 inflation phase.
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@Yoshika There is a chart from the World Bank. 1970 - 2024. gold and S&P 500 perform the same. But while the S&P has only caught up in recent years (AI bubble?) Is that better then?
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@Part_Time_Joe
Like this? Let me see.

Probably just the price index.
In terms of total return, the S&P would be somewhere above the gold price. About a factor of 4.
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@Yoshika Just google it. You can no longer upload pictures in the comments 😉
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@Part_Time_Joe
I don't need to, because I know the figures.
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@Yoshika Well then... good luck 😂
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@Part_Time_Joe
No problem, there's always the laugh emoji for the really weak ones.
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@Yoshika
And for all those who are seriously interested in facts and not just emoji gymnastics:

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator

:)
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@Yoshika Glad you posted that. From 01.01.1998 (before the new market bubble) the S&P 500 still performs worse than gold ... 😉
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@Part_Time_Joe
In 1998, however, the party was already underway. The S&P had already multiplied in the previous years. And gold was at USD 290, the absolute low for almost 20 years.
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@Yoshika
In 1980, the price of gold was once around USD 850.
Ver todas as 3 restantes respostas
Fear seems to be driving people into gold and nowadays also Bitcoin. Not a healthy development, in my opinion.
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I think $10.000 gold is not out of the question. But personally I'm more bullish on silver as it has lagged behind gold for years. It has a lot of catching up to do! Gold silver ratio should be 20 instead of the current 80.
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Gold should always be a safe haven in your portfolio
@ItsOlafSnowman Oh, and in times of real crisis everyone suddenly buys more gold because they have nothing better to do with their money, right? 😉
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@AlexBloch if you buy gold in the middle of the crisis, it's too late 😌
@ItsOlafSnowman This means that the gold price will not rise in a crisis... But neither will it rise much further when it is at an all-time high, as it is now. And it will not continue to rise forever. Ergo: The profitable gold train has long since left the station, just like crypto.
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@AlexBloch ah then you are interested in losing money? Ok go your way.

And if crypto is not profitable why are so many making profits with it?

There is no holy grail don't try it...
@ItsOlafSnowman Crypto has only made a profit for those who got in cheaply a long time ago or recently, but not for the rest. The same applies to gold. Both have no intrinsic return because there are no working people behind them who contribute their own labor to the return. Quite the opposite of shares.
There is no holy grail for making high profits quickly. But there are methods of at least tapping into systematic market returns with relatively little risk. Much less risk than with gold or crypto.
Sorry, just wanted to question your original advice. Unfortunately, I couldn't come up with a plausible rationale for gold.
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@AlexBloch I'm not trying to impose anything on anyone, but you are 😊

Don't feel offended when others express their opinion.

Doesn't bring you any advantages
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@OlafTheSnowman
But as a security component, it's more of a traditional recommendation, isn't it?
Gold has a weak negative correlation with equities in the long term, but not reliably in every crash.
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@Yoshika Gold is a precious metal and, in my opinion, should not outperform anything or bring big profits - it should protect your money. Earn money and keep money
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@OlafTheSnowman
I understand. I just think that protection without a real return is also a risk in the long term, because it gradually loses purchasing power.
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@Yoshika Yields and dividends can come to a halt during crises. You should therefore have more stable asset classes in your portfolio to compensate for this.

Do you think another asset is safer in a crisis than gold?
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Show another char monthly savings rate 1k
If you think so go for it :)

Gold 1975 to 2024 4.1% p.a. vs. global equity market (MSCI World) 9.7% p.a.

And the gold price is currently only being fueled by political uncertainties and the hope of falling interest rates.

I always wonder what the point is of writing such long texts here that are questionable in terms of content. There are far too many investors here who have been investing for 5 years where everyone makes a profit anyway and have never been through a 4+ year crisis.
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such a gold FOMO currently wow :D
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