Here's the honest, unvarnished analysis for your buddy Tenbagger.
"Hey there Tenbagger! Your buddy hired me,
to really grill **STMicroelectronics (STM)**. We're not looking at what management *promises*, but what they *delivered* in 2025. It's a deep look into the engine room of a semiconductor giant in crisis mode.
Here is the official **"boss check "** (as of April 07, 2026):
### **1. financial check & multiples (dynamic)**
The year 2025 was a brutal stress test for STM. Sales slumped by 11.1%, while the costs for the new plants (fixed costs) continued unabated.
| Key figure | FY 2024 (actual) | FY 2025 (actual/final) | Trend (YoY) |
| **Revenue ($ bn)** | 17.29 | **11.80** | **-31.7 %** (vs 2023) / **-11.1 %** (vs 2024)
** **KGV (adj.)** | ~10.5 | **17.5** | Significant price increase due to profit slump.
| **KCV** | 5.2 | **10.8** | Cash generation has halved.
| **Net Debt/EBITDA** | -0.5x | **-1.2x** (Net Cash) | **Net Cash:** $2.79 bn (Outstanding).
| **EK ratio** | 64.2 % | **68.0 %** | Balance sheet is a fortress. |
| **ROE / ROIC** | 22 % / 18 % | **1.5 % / 0.9 %** **Disaster:** STM has effectively destroyed value in 2025. |
**Margin staircase (reality 2025):**
** **Gross margin:** Crashed from 47.9% (2023) to **33.9%** (2025).
** **Net margin:** From 24.3% to a measly **1.4%** (non-GAAP slightly higher, but that's the hard edge).
* **FCF margin:** **2.2%** ($265m FCF on $11.8bn revenue). 🚩 **NOT PASSED** The 15% hurdle was missed by miles.
### **2. Piotroski F-Score**
**Total score: 4 / 9** (Poor)
** **Profitability (2/4):** Positive operating cash flow (+), but ROA and net income are in the basement (-).
** **Financing (2/3):** Leverage stable (+), no new issues (+).
** **Efficiency (0/2):** Gross margin down (-), asset turnover down (-).
### **3. dividend & shareholder check**
* **Yield:** **~1.4%** ($0.36 per share).
** **Cash flow coverage:**
**CRITICAL:** Dividends paid ($321m) and buybacks ($367m) exceeded free cash flow ($265m). STM is currently drawing on its cash reserve.
** **Insider power:** No significant purchases compared to the AWS warrants.
### **4. strategic guidance & news momentum (not in core score)**
* **Positive:** The AWS partnership (Feb. 2026) with warrants at **$28.38** and the Nvidia deal give hope for a massive recovery from H2 2026.
* **Negative:** The guidance for Q1 2026 foresees a further sequential decline in sales of 8.7 %. The bottoming out is taking longer than hoped.
### **5. dirt on the ground / risks**
* **Fixed cost trap:** STM to invest **$2.0 - $2.2bn** (Net CapEx) again in 2026. If the AWS/Nvidia recovery does not ignite immediately, cash flow will continue to bleed.
** **China competition:** Massive overcapacity for power semiconductors in China is depressing prices.
### **6. alpha & beta view**
* **Beta:** **1.35**. Highly cyclical.
* **Alpha:** Deep negative (-15% vs. benchmark in 2025).
### **7. DCF analysis (fair value based on 2025 reality)**
** **Fair Value:** **21.50 EUR** (Based on slow recovery).
recovery).
** **Current share price:** ~22.50 EUR.
** **Upside:** **None** The share is fair to slightly overvalued based on current earnings power.
### **9th boss check: The verdict**
**Fitting score: 4.8 / 10**
Tell your buddy Tenbagger: **Currently STM is a "falling knife."
**Why the score is so low?**
1. **Core figures:** The FCF margin (2.2%) and ROIC (0.9%) are currently out of the question for a quality strategy.
2. **Piotroski:** A score of 4/9 signals operational stress.
3 **Dividend:** Currently not earned through current cash flow.
**Bang hard conclusion:**
The news around AWS and Nvidia are fantastic for the story, but they are still reflected **zero** in the financials. Anyone buying now is betting purely on the guidance and ignoring the ugly balance sheet reality of 2025.
**I currently advise against an investment.
We will wait until the cash flow sees the 15% hurdle in the rear-view mirror again.
**What does your buddy say? Is the AWS story enough for him, or is he a numbers person like us?
"Hey there Tenbagger! Your buddy hired me,
to really grill **STMicroelectronics (STM)**. We're not looking at what management *promises*, but what they *delivered* in 2025. It's a deep look into the engine room of a semiconductor giant in crisis mode.
Here is the official **"boss check "** (as of April 07, 2026):
### **1. financial check & multiples (dynamic)**
The year 2025 was a brutal stress test for STM. Sales slumped by 11.1%, while the costs for the new plants (fixed costs) continued unabated.
| Key figure | FY 2024 (actual) | FY 2025 (actual/final) | Trend (YoY) |
| **Revenue ($ bn)** | 17.29 | **11.80** | **-31.7 %** (vs 2023) / **-11.1 %** (vs 2024)
** **KGV (adj.)** | ~10.5 | **17.5** | Significant price increase due to profit slump.
| **KCV** | 5.2 | **10.8** | Cash generation has halved.
| **Net Debt/EBITDA** | -0.5x | **-1.2x** (Net Cash) | **Net Cash:** $2.79 bn (Outstanding).
| **EK ratio** | 64.2 % | **68.0 %** | Balance sheet is a fortress. |
| **ROE / ROIC** | 22 % / 18 % | **1.5 % / 0.9 %** **Disaster:** STM has effectively destroyed value in 2025. |
**Margin staircase (reality 2025):**
** **Gross margin:** Crashed from 47.9% (2023) to **33.9%** (2025).
** **Net margin:** From 24.3% to a measly **1.4%** (non-GAAP slightly higher, but that's the hard edge).
* **FCF margin:** **2.2%** ($265m FCF on $11.8bn revenue). 🚩 **NOT PASSED** The 15% hurdle was missed by miles.
### **2. Piotroski F-Score**
**Total score: 4 / 9** (Poor)
** **Profitability (2/4):** Positive operating cash flow (+), but ROA and net income are in the basement (-).
** **Financing (2/3):** Leverage stable (+), no new issues (+).
** **Efficiency (0/2):** Gross margin down (-), asset turnover down (-).
### **3. dividend & shareholder check**
* **Yield:** **~1.4%** ($0.36 per share).
** **Cash flow coverage:**
**CRITICAL:** Dividends paid ($321m) and buybacks ($367m) exceeded free cash flow ($265m). STM is currently drawing on its cash reserve.
** **Insider power:** No significant purchases compared to the AWS warrants.
### **4. strategic guidance & news momentum (not in core score)**
* **Positive:** The AWS partnership (Feb. 2026) with warrants at **$28.38** and the Nvidia deal give hope for a massive recovery from H2 2026.
* **Negative:** The guidance for Q1 2026 foresees a further sequential decline in sales of 8.7 %. The bottoming out is taking longer than hoped.
### **5. dirt on the ground / risks**
* **Fixed cost trap:** STM to invest **$2.0 - $2.2bn** (Net CapEx) again in 2026. If the AWS/Nvidia recovery does not ignite immediately, cash flow will continue to bleed.
** **China competition:** Massive overcapacity for power semiconductors in China is depressing prices.
### **6. alpha & beta view**
* **Beta:** **1.35**. Highly cyclical.
* **Alpha:** Deep negative (-15% vs. benchmark in 2025).
### **7. DCF analysis (fair value based on 2025 reality)**
** **Fair Value:** **21.50 EUR** (Based on slow recovery).
recovery).
** **Current share price:** ~22.50 EUR.
** **Upside:** **None** The share is fair to slightly overvalued based on current earnings power.
### **9th boss check: The verdict**
**Fitting score: 4.8 / 10**
Tell your buddy Tenbagger: **Currently STM is a "falling knife."
**Why the score is so low?**
1. **Core figures:** The FCF margin (2.2%) and ROIC (0.9%) are currently out of the question for a quality strategy.
2. **Piotroski:** A score of 4/9 signals operational stress.
3 **Dividend:** Currently not earned through current cash flow.
**Bang hard conclusion:**
The news around AWS and Nvidia are fantastic for the story, but they are still reflected **zero** in the financials. Anyone buying now is betting purely on the guidance and ignoring the ugly balance sheet reality of 2025.
**I currently advise against an investment.
We will wait until the cash flow sees the 15% hurdle in the rear-view mirror again.
**What does your buddy say? Is the AWS story enough for him, or is he a numbers person like us?
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1Semana
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin is true. The past few years have not been good years. The poor order situation in the automotive industry has not stopped here either. But as an investor, I am looking ahead and am less pessimistic than the prompts
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•@Tenbagger2024 I'm not sure what speaks against fact-based decision-making for investments.😅🤷🏼♂️ No fancy calculations, just hard facts. Although, to be honest, I had to sharpen my prompt a little more.😉 The result will follow in one of the next analyses.😘
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1Semana
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin Yes, your prompt has analyzed the past quite well. But I don't think it goes enough into the potential. After all, the stock market is about the future. I find that a little lacking in your prompts. That's not meant to be a criticism. I could even imagine a company that has performed well in the past. But is facing major challenges in the future. But still performs well in your models because the prompt may overestimate the quality of the past. I don't want to criticize, I just want to inspire . And tell you what I notice . I also don't think there is one right prompt, your prompt may fit your strategy. Maybe there should be an agent for every strategy, mine would be 007
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•@Tenbagger2024 I have sharpened my prompt a little in this respect. To be honest, I also disliked the fact that he doesn't evaluate countable things like contracts with turnovers etc. at all. It's not our main criterion, but it does have a certain influence on his analysis.
I discussed this at length with him😂
I discussed this at length with him😂
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•1Semana
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin That's why Prompt and AI are not the main factors for me. It's more the intern or the student Juan. I let them do the work for me. And I tend to have the analysis done in fragments. Valuation, key financial figures, business model, competitors, etc.. I somehow have the impression that I'm not overtaxing the intern. And when I give him subtasks, he works more cleanly.
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