Hello everyone,

I am quite new to "trading" and need your advice.

I own two Airbus share programs and am currently considering selling a package worth €15,000. My aim is to reinvest the money in other stocks, in particular Novo Nordisk, Tesla, Vistra and TSMC.

Background: In 2-3 years I will need the capital to build my house. I am therefore wondering whether it makes sense to hold the Airbus shares or to switch to other shares now in order to achieve a better return.

How would you proceed? Continue to hold Airbus or switch to the shares mentioned?

I am looking forward to your opinion.

$AIR (-3,2%)

$NOVO B (+5,32%)

$2330

$VST (-7,68%)

$TSLA (-4,32%)

The S&P 500 is overvalued according to traditional valuations, at least that is how it appears.

1. historical overvaluation and current key figures

Overvaluation based on historical data:

• 19 out of 20 valuation metrics indicate that the S&P 500 is more expensive than the long-term average.

Current valuation figures:

• The P/E ratio is currently around 30.5.
• The price-to-sales ratio is currently around 3.2.

These values show that the index is considered "expensive" by traditional standards.

2 Why is the S&P 500 so highly valued?

Dominance of mega-cap stocks

The S&P 500 is currently undergoing a transformation that is characterized by the increasing dominance of the Magnificent 7 ($GOOGL (-2,28%) | $AMZN (-2,39%) | $AAPL (+0,26%) | $META (-1,11%) | $MSFT (-1,57%) | $NVDA (-3,63%) | $TSLA (-4,32%) ). Companies such as Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia play a disproportionately large role in the index due to their market capitalization-based weighting. Although their strong growth, stable profits and their positions in key sectors such as AI, cloud computing and chip tech justify higher valuations, their share of the total market value of the index has increased significantly in recent years:

While they accounted for less than 10% of the index some time ago, their aggregated share is now around 30%. As a result, the expensive valuations of these mega caps distort the overall assessment of the S&P 500. The more moderate or even favorable valuations of smaller companies in the index are often masked as a result, which entails the risk that the apparent "inflation" of the overall market reflects Mag 7 rather than the broad market reality.

More robust company fundamentals

Many companies today are targeting recurring revenue streams such as software-as-a-service or subscription models, which allow for greater predictability of cash flows. This strategy not only reduces cyclical risks, such as less dependence on one-off sales or cyclical markets, but also creates a more reliable foundation for long-term growth. At the same time, companies have optimized their balance sheet structures through lower debt, high cash reserves and more efficient capital allocation, for example through targeted share buybacks or investments in profitable growth. These factors support higher valuations as investors are willing to pay a premium for stable earnings and lower default risks. Taken together, these developments mean that the seemingly high valuations of the S&P 500 may be justified not only by speculation but also by fundamental improvements in business models and financial discipline

Strategic change in companies

A key trend in corporate strategy today is the prioritization of efficiency & profitability over aggressive expansion. More and more companies are focusing on operational perfection and rather low-capital business models, comparable to cloud services or software. This focus not only reduces dependence on expensive infrastructure projects or physical assets, but also increases margins and resilience in volatile markets.

At the same time, there has been a profound structural change in the S&P 500, as the proportion of traditional industrial companies has fallen from 70% to around 50% since 1980. This development reflects the rise of digital, tech sectors, which are characterized by their scalability, global reach and often higher profit margins. Sectors such as software, cloud computing and AI are increasingly dominating the index, while capital-intensive industries are losing weight.

3 Risks and counterarguments

The risks and counterarguments to the current situation of the S&P 500 can be summarized in three main points. Firstly, there is a concentration risk as the index is heavily dependent on a small number of tech companies. If these companies are affected by regulatory measures or unexpected slumps in growth, this could weigh on the market as a whole. Secondly, the index is sensitive to interest rates. Rising interest rates could put pressure on high valuations even for companies with solid fundamentals, as higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of growth stocks. Thirdly, the current valuation premium is based on the assumption that companies will achieve their optimistic earnings forecasts. If these expectations not If these expectations are not met, there could be a correction, as valuations could then be seen as excessive.

From my perspective, comparing today's S&P 500 to historical valuations is difficult as both the composition of the index and the business models have changed significantly. The dominance of tech and the shift towards more efficient, scalable business models make the index different today than in the past. I also see that the current high valuations of the S&P 500 are not necessarily excessive, but could be partly justified by structural changes. Market conditions have adjusted and higher multiples may reflect a "new normal" due to changing guidance on corporate earnings and market stability. Nevertheless, it remains important to keep an eye on the risks, as valuations are heavily dependent on the fulfillment of these optimistic expectations.

Have you heard about the current turmoil at Nissan? 🚗 The Japanese car manufacturer is trying to find a new partner after failed merger talks with Honda - and could rely on Tesla $TSLA (-4,32%) in the process.

According to a report in the Financial Times, a group of Nissan managers has drawn up a plan to attract the US electric car giant as a strategic investor. This proposal is supported by former political figures, including ex-Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.

The idea behind it? Tesla could benefit from Nissan's factories in the US, which is particularly important to strengthen production there and respond to the new US president's tariff threats. Considering Nissan's high debt and shrinking profit margins, this move could be a real game-changer.

How do you see the chances of a collaboration between Nissan and Tesla? Do you think this could help the struggling Japanese car manufacturer? 📈

Have you heard about the recalls at Tesla $TSLA (-4,32%) heard? The electric car manufacturer has to recall around 380,000 vehicles in the USA, including the popular Model 3 and Model Y models. The reason: a fault in the power steering, which makes steering at low speeds more difficult and therefore increases the risk of accidents. A software update is intended to rectify the problems.

But that's not all: Tesla is also struggling with mediocre quarterly figures and falling demand. Elon Musk is also causing a stir with questionable appearances. There are rumors in the industry about Nissan possibly joining Tesla as a strategic investor, which caused Nissan's share price to rise in the short term.

What do you think about the situation? Will Tesla overcome these challenges and drive the share price up again? 📈

$TSLA (-4,32%)
$7201 (+7,76%)

Nissan wanted to merge with Honda in order to stand up to Tesla, among others. Now that this has failed, Nissan could merge with its competitor.

Tesla has come into play as a new potential partner for a collaboration with the Japanese car manufacturer Nissan. This may sound surprising at first, but the current background is the protective tariffs threatened by the USA. According to a report in the Financial Times, there are plans for Tesla to acquire a stake in Nissan. These plans were drawn up by Hiro Mizuno, a former member of the Tesla Board of Directors, and Japan's former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and his former advisor Hiroto Izumi, among others. The newspaper writes this with reference to informed circles.

Teslas are to roll out of the Nissan plants in the USA

The idea behind this sees Tesla as a strategic investor with an interest in Nissan's factories in the USA. Tesla could use them to ramp up its US production in the short term if the US government were to actually apply the announced protective tariffs. Previously, merger talks between Nissan and Honda had failed. The two Japanese manufacturers originally wanted to use their combined resources to better position themselves against Tesla and powerful Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers such as BYD. Now they seem to be following the old tactic of "if you can't beat them - join them" in the very short term, which only makes sense in light of the new US government's plans.

The news of a possible entry by Musk's electric car company caused Nissan shares on the Tokyo stock exchange to rise by a good 10 percent in the short term, corresponding to a market capitalization of just under 11 billion euros. Tesla's market capitalization is almost 1.1 trillion euros. Renault's stake in Nissan, which has existed since 1999, still exists, but has shrunk over the years to just under 36 percent. Communication between the two has been severely disrupted for years, and there has been no creative cooperation for some time.

https://www.heise.de/news/Autoindustrie-Tesla-koennte-sich-an-Nissan-beteiligen-10290509.html

The political controversies surrounding Elon Musk and his role in the Trump administration are causing a stir. Protests outside Tesla dealerships in the US are not only demanding the sale of Tesla vehicles, but also the dumping of Tesla shares. This could get dicey for investors!

The Tesla share is currently $TSLA (-4,32%) at EUR 345.00, showing a slight change of 0.16%. However, Musk's growing negative image could have an impact on the brand and therefore the share price. A survey shows that 53% of voters disapprove of Musk's government involvement - which is not exactly ideal for the brand image.

What do you think? Could this image crisis actually cause Tesla shares to falter? Or do you think the brand is strong enough to weather these storms? Join the discussion! 📈

Tesla ($TSLA (-4,32%)) recently raised the prices of its premium models Model S and Model X worldwide. In Germany, the cost of the Model S rose by 18 percent to 109,900 euros. The Model X has also become more expensive, now available for around 114,900 euros - an increase of 15 percent. These price increases are not only a reaction to rising production costs, but also part of a strategic realignment towards the premium segment.

But there is also positive news! Tesla is bringing back free Supercharging for first-time owners. This offer could be an important incentive for buyers who opt for the higher-priced models.

What do you think of the price increases? Do you think the return of free Supercharging will influence the purchase decision? And how could this affect Tesla shares? Let's discuss! 👍📈

Donald Trump has made the headlines again! 🚗💰 At a press conference, he announced that he plans to impose tariffs of 25 percent on imported cars. The exact details are to follow in April, but the direction is clear: more costs for imported vehicles!

This could be an exciting turnaround for the automotive industry. Anyone who thinks that the tariffs are only aimed at European cars could be in for a surprise. Trump has hinted that other regions could also be affected. And that would not only be a shock for manufacturers, but also for consumers.

The new tariffs could fuel inflation again and stock markets often react sensitively to such news. How do you think this will affect $TSLA (-4,32%) , $VOW (-0,15%) or $BMW (-0,12%) impact? 🤔

The US currently has a 2.5% tariff on car imports from the EU - a big difference compared to the EU's 10% tariff on US imports. Is this the start of a new trade crisis or a necessary step for the US economy? Let's discuss it!