Postos
260From JP Morgan Conference today:
$HIMS (+8,65%) CFO Yemi Okupe Look at where $NFLX (+1,17%) sits today, they are able to build their own proprietary content as well as curate media content from around the world. That's what we kind of see as the future of Hims
$NFLX (+1,17%) announced Wednesday that 94 million subscribers are using its ad-supported service, up from 70 million in November, as the video streaming giant's lower-priced offering garners strong support amid global economic uncertainty .
With more than 300 million customers worldwide, Netflix is seeing robust spending across all streaming tiers and had said in April that it sees no significant shifts in consumer spending.
The comments allayed investor fears that economic uncertainty due to the change in US trade policy would cause consumers to cut back on spending on streaming services.
Netflix had said last month that 55 percent of new sign-ups in countries where the service is available are for its ad-supported service.
To attract more users from around the world, Netflix introduced expanded language options for TV viewers earlier this year, offering more dubbing and subtitle options.
In May, President Donald Trump threatened a 100 percent tariff on foreign-made movies (link) to encourage domestic productions, clouding the outlook for media companies like Netflix that film overseas.
Many of Netflix's most popular media are from abroad, such as the South Korean drama "Squid Game" and the Spanish series "Money Heist".
AHEAD: Starting next month, my Instagram monthly recaps will only show the most important facts and figures on the slides of the Instagram post. The detailed text version will appear here on getquin. This makes it easier to absorb the information and makes the Instagram posts clearer.
I will divide the monthly review into a portfolio update and a review for private finances. I could also create a separate review for dividends and reinvestments. My aim is to motivate people to take responsibility for their own finances and to build up their wealth. The whole thing is based on my experience reports from my personal everyday financial life, tailored to the respective target group for each sub-post. Let's see how well I succeed.
Here is the last All-In-One post.
While many have continued to panic about Trump, I think I have understood that the whole tariff issue is only intended to depress the markets so that the USA can refinance itself at much lower interest rates when a good USD 7 trillion of the USD 36 trillion of national debt matures this year. That's why I preferred to keep on hiking, while the portfolio rewarded me with plenty of dividends for the month.
I present the following points for the past month of April 2025:
➡️ SHARES
➡️ ETFS
➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS
➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES
➡️ CASHBACK
➡️ P2P CREDITS
➡️ CRYPTO
➡️ AND OTHER?
➡️ OUTLOOK
➡️ Shares
So the second of April was the aforementioned day of liberation. And it was indeed one, the day of liberation from the excessive overvaluations in US equities. Unfortunately, there was also other collateral damage, but in the end there will be none, as it is all just book losses.
The trap in the US government budget that I would like to briefly point out is the national debt to GDP ratio of 123%, as of March 2025. In Germany, it is around 63%. This is stiflingly high and means that economic output is not enough to keep the national debt in check! Therefore new new "money" has to be printed for refinancing. And this money reaches us through asset price inflation. The illustration is, of course, highly simplified, but that is why we invest.
A look at my portfolio shows me that my individual shares $NFLX (+1,17%) my previous class leader $AVGO (-2,17%) has at least just caught up in terms of performance. Nevertheless, Broadcom remains the largest position in terms of volume. Who knows for how much longer?
Netflix's performance has recovered to +184%, Broadcom's is +182%. I'm watching the spectacle, but I'm letting the savings plans continue. Nothing more will be done here, as Beate Sander once said: the horses stay in the stable. Behind the two draught horses $WMT (+1,58%) 3rd place in terms of volume and $SAP (+0,67%) in 3rd place in terms of performance with +110%. In the last review, I reported that the waste disposal service provider $RSG (+1,28%) had risen steadily. It is now losing a few places again, but rising $V (+0,74%) and $MA (+0,04%) are rising together and both are already knocking on the door of the top 5 from the outside. The performance of both is similar and decent with +44%/+42%.
As always, the last places in the main stock portfolio are occupied by the same suspects. $NKE (+1,6%) , $TGT (+1,36%) and $HTGC (+1,02%) are the smallest positions. In terms of performance, Nike and Target are the worst performers at -40%.$DHR (+3,09%) as well. But that leaves me cold. In the current macro situation, this is hardly to be expected otherwise. The "neighbor indicator" fits, because most of the shoes on their doorstep (larger family) are Nike shoes. I'm thinking about adjusting my savings plans so that these values receive a higher proportion of my net salary.
➡️ ETFs
The impact of Trump's tariff policy was also clearly felt in the prices of my ETFs in April, leading to significant losses. It is important to remain calm in such volatile times and continue to invest strategically. Such phases are part and parcel of long-term asset accumulation.
➡️ Distributions
In April, I was pleased to receive 19 distributions on 8 payout days. This additional income stream is a valuable addition to my normal earned income, for which I am very grateful. I recommend everyone to build up this kind of additional income in order to become more financially independent from their traditional main job.
Traditionally, April is not a low-distribution month for me. This time, however, the distributions from my three large ETFs were not paid out at the end of March but in April, which distorted the distributions for both months. This effect made April the second-highest distribution month since I started investing. Otherwise, April is always slightly below the distributions of March.
➡️ Additional purchases
From the refunds below, I bought two one-off savings plans on the $GGRP (+0,24%) and $JEGP (+1,19%) executed. I would have liked to buy more, but I still don't want to touch the nest egg or reserves.
➡️ Cashback
In April, I received a cashback on my electricity bill and a travel allowance from my employer. Part of this was used to pre-finance future expenses and to top up sinking funds, while the other part was invested in an old portfolio via the aforementioned one-off savings plans.
➡️ P2P loans
With Mintos, there were no interest or redemption payments. I always withdraw incoming funds with availability. How are you doing with P2P? Are you also withdrawing from the investment?
➡️ Crypto
April was also a very volatile month for crypto investors. The unrest caused by Trump's tariff policy depressed crypto prices, similar to March. However, prices gradually recovered, indicating that the money supply is already increasing again. This is happening through new debt being purchased in the form of government bonds by the FED, which is essentially the equivalent of 'printing' money. Historically, the $BTC (-0,38%) usually follows this development with a delay of just over 10 weeks, as it is strongly correlated to the money supply at 90%.
I am following the whole thing with interest. My preferred theory of cryptocycles still fits in with the current trend. We are moving back towards 100K and I expect a bullish crossover in Bitcoin. The limit orders are still in the market, even if it will be a long time before they trigger. Of course, I hope that the "normal" bear market will then resume. In a few months' time, we will know whether we will have seen another clear double top in the current bull market.
Here are two key figures from my crypto wallets: monthly performance: +5.5%, performance since the beginning: +56%.
➡️ And what else?
I'm continuing to delve deeper into the use of LLMs and am currently working on my prompting technique. The posts on my Instagram channel that I have published since March have been created with the help of AI, I have used AI to give me ideas for image generation, to have them created naturally and many of the quotes are also AI-generated. I use several LLMs and see significant differences in the outputs. This makes it more diverse and even allows me to merge multiple results. The models are also learning my writing style better and better, with longer generated texts you can still clearly read the generic, but I myself understand better and better how I can use the new technology to improve my productivity instead of letting it replace me. This also applies to my job.
As in the previous month, I am also focusing much more intensively on the topic of nutrition. I avoid added sugar as much as possible. So there was no chocolate bunny for me at Easter and I'm not hungry for chocolate or other sweets. That's a real miracle.
I've also increased my weekly exercise routine once again and am paying close attention to how my body is coping. Instead of two weight training sessions at home, I now do three, instead of three running sessions a week I do a lot and every morning I do some general fitness/cardio and core exercises for my stomach to warm up. The clear aim is to continue building muscle and strengthening my heart health. And I enjoy it, even though the temperature in my apartment has already risen towards 25° Celsius on some days.
I've been hiking twice in Saxon Switzerland, once just under and once over 30 km. On hiking days, I like to leave at 4 a.m. on the first Saxonia Express train. In the fall and early spring, this is even the perfect time to enjoy the sunrise on the sandstone cliffs. For me personally, this is pure healing for the soul and a real quality of life. I can enjoy it without depressing thoughts in my head because I know that my finances are in order and running on autopilot.
➡️ Outlook
May will be a no-spend month for me, simply because I feel like taking on the next challenge. Later in the year, I want to start a Hartz IV/citizen's allowance experiment. I should be able to do this most of the time, as my expenses in March and April were both under €1,000. I'm already looking forward to the evaluation at the end of the challenge.
Links:
Social media links can be found in my profile, also feel free to check out the Instagram version of my review.
Tops
Still at the top 🥇Sprouts Farmers$SFM (+4,45%) which are stable 📈 followed by 🥈Netflix $NFLX (+1,17%) which has fought its way up to second place despite all the market turbulence.
Walmart $WMT (+1,58%) who have always been in the top 3 since I started covering the position.
Unlike the country 🇩🇪 where it feels 📉. Things are looking surprisingly good on the stock market for 🇩🇪 shares $DB1 (+1,52%) & $MUV2 (-0,44%) in the top 10 💪😊
Surprisingly, there is no sign of Magnificent 7 far and wide 😂 although $TSLA (+2,05%) is no longer represented in the "ETF".
Flops
Although Adobe$ADBE (+3,25%) actually has good figures, the position has not really gotten off the ground since I started holding it, worse still, so far it has brought me the most losses, although it does not pay a dividend 😂
Of course the savings plans are still running this month, but not all positions.
The winners are still running, some of the losers have been paused for the time being and only the flops are still running. $QCOM (-0,23%)
$AMAT (-0,59%) continue.
$AAPL (-0,21%)
$MSFT (+0,27%)
$NVDA (+0,4%)
$AMZN (+0,1%)
$GOOGL (+1,27%)
$META (-0,65%)
$TSLA (+2,05%)
$AVGO (-2,17%)
$NFLX (+1,17%)
$AMD (+1,56%)
Absolute valuation levels
Above all Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, AMD and Amazon are quoted below their long-term median multiples.
Valuation multiples compared to expected sales growth
If the expected sales growth by analysts over the next 3 years the following picture emerges...
What do you think of the valuation levels of Mag-7 & Co.
I continue to buy the dip in 5 out of the Mag7 companies. They are called magnificent for a reason, I went into depth into every company in my earlier post about the Mag7 and expanded on the thought that this selloff could be a huge opportunity to start building up a stake in these highly profitable businesses.
Amazon for example isn’t the online book store Jeff Bezos invented in his garage anymore, no, it is so much more now. While e-commerce still accounts for the lion’s share of the company’s enormous revenue, similar to $GOOGL (+1,27%) Amazon is expanding in other areas.
AWS is the cloud leader and dominates this sector ahead of its two main competitors $MSFT (+0,27%) and $GOOGL (+1,27%) . Other promising ventures are Prime Video, which disappointed over years in terms of lacking behind $NFLX (+1,17%) , but it has the potential and the resources to close the respective gap between these two streaming providers.
And then there is the massive opportunity, nobody seems to talk about: Amazon entering the healthcare space. Similar to what $HIMS (+8,65%) tries to achieve but on a much bigger scale, since Amazon has the resources and platforms to advertise and roll this out effectively.
Amazon is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of around 30 (similar to $MSFT (+0,27%) ), and it should be noted that until the recent selloff Amazon’s stock has always traded correspondingly to its EPS growth. So, while it isn’t necessarily a bargain like $GOOGL (+1,27%) it‘s a very attractive entry point for this giant that still has much potential ahead.
If you are interested in shares, ETFs or investing in general, you are definitely not doing anything wrong by reading a few good books on the subject.
On the contrary: books can help you understand the basics, avoid typical mistakes and enter the market with a clear strategy. 🧠📈
I have now read a few books on the stock market, some of which were rather average, but the following ones particularly impressed me and are absolutely worth reading in my opinion:
1️⃣ Without shares will be difficult - by Noah Leidinger & Florian Adomeit
For whom? Ideal for beginners who want to look beyond ETFs and actively engage with individual shares.
What is it about? The book provides a practical introduction to the world of individual shares. Using 25 real company examples (including Coca-Cola $KO (+0,9%) , Netflix $NFLX (+1,17%) or Zalando $ZAL (-0,7%) ), the authors show how to analyze business models, classify company key figures and value shares.
The question of whether ETFs are really always the best choice is also critically examined. The relaxed and easy-to-understand style makes it particularly beginner-friendly and informative at the same time. ✅
2️⃣ Intelligent investing - by Benjamin Graham
For whom? For anyone who wants to invest systematically for the long term, even if this requires a little more patience and reading discipline.
What is it about? The standard work on value investing.
Graham explains how to recognize undervalued stocks and why it pays to invest with a cool head and a rational approach.
Warren Buffett calls it the best book ever written on investing for a reason. 🏆
3️⃣ Investing with confidence - by Gerd Kommer
For whom? For anyone who invests in ETFs and is looking for a scientifically sound, sober view of investing.
What is it about? Kommer shows why a globally diversified ETF portfolio is the best long-term choice for most private investors. 🌍
He disproves many stock market myths with facts, figures and data.
The book is factual, easy to understand and ideal for anyone who wants to build up assets calmly and over the long term. 🧱
4️⃣ One step ahead of the stock market - by Peter Lynch
For whom? For anyone who likes to analyze companies themselves and wants to actively search for exciting stocks.
What is it about? Lynch explains how good investment ideas can be found through everyday observations (e.g. when shopping).
At the same time, he gives deep insights into his way of thinking, his portfolio management and his greatest successes. A practical and motivating book with many aha moments. 💡
5️⃣ Think and Grow Rich - by Napoleon Hill
For whom? For anyone who wants to grow not only financially but also personally.
What is it about? Not a classic stock market book, but a real classic when it comes to success, mindset and determination.
Hill shows how important discipline, self-belief and clear goals are for long-term success, even on the stock market. 🏆
I've read a few other books, but these five stand out for me. 📘
What are your favorite books on the stock market and finance?
Today I took a closer look at the Netflix share, which is currently at a very interesting point from a technical chart perspective.
In recent weeks, Netflix shares have repeatedly failed to reach the psychologically important $1,000 mark and have repeatedly touched the support area of $820-840.
Should the share break above the $1,000 mark with significant volume in the coming days, I could imagine rising prices and a new ATH after a retest.
However, I think this bullish scenario is rather unlikely at present. Instead
I expect the price to either bounce off the $1,000 mark again or fall back significantly after a fake out. In this case, the support area at USD 820 - 840 is unlikely to hold, which could lead to a more pronounced correction.
Netflix impresses with quarterly figures
Netflix $NFLX (+1,17%) broke through the 1,000 dollar mark per share in after-hours trading in a remarkable first quarter. The streaming giant exceeded expectations in almost all areas and achieved a turnover of 10.54 billion euros, an increase of 13 percent compared to the previous year. Particularly noteworthy is the net profit of 2.89 billion euros, which shows an impressive increase of 24%. Earnings per share of EUR 6.61 also exceeded Wall Street's expectations and grew by more than 25 percent year-on-year. The operating margin rose to 31.7 percent, indicating increasing efficiency. Netflix appears to be well positioned in a challenging economic environment as its business model is less dependent on physical goods and is instead based on intellectual property. This resilience gives the company a strategic advantage in the fast-paced streaming world.
Capital One buys Discover Financial for 35 billion dollars
The merger between Capital One and Discover Financial $D1FS34 received the green light from several regulators on Friday, bringing the €35 billion merger closer to completion. Following the announcement of the acquisition in February 2024, the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency have given their approval. The Federal Reserve also fined Discover €100 million for overcharging interchange fees. Capital One plans to complete the acquisition on May 18 after all necessary approvals have been obtained. This merger will bring together two of the largest credit card providers and could help Discover regain relevance in competition with the top dogs Visa and Mastercard. The synergies from this acquisition could significantly strengthen Capital One's portfolio and open up new market opportunities.
Sources:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-crushes-earnings-safe-haven-160904929.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/capital-one-35-billion-purchase-162516083.html
Bill Ackman backs Hertz
Bill Ackman and his team at Pershing Square Capital Management have embarked on an exciting turnaround plan for the car rental company with an almost 20% stake in Hertz Global Holdings Inc. The investment in the company began late last year, and now Ackman holds a whopping 19.8% of the shares, consisting of direct stock ownership and total return swaps.
Ackman is convinced that Hertz can overcome the challenges resulting from Tesla's unsuccessful entry into the electric vehicle world. He also believes that the company will benefit from an increase in used car prices triggered by Trump's 25% tariff on US car imports. This tariff could drive up the price of new cars, which in turn could increase the value of used vehicles. Hertz has an advantage here, as the company is well positioned with a fleet of over 500,000 vehicles with an estimated total value of around 12 billion euros.
A 10% increase in used car prices could give Hertz a profit of €1.2 billion on its car assets, which is about half of the company's current market capitalization. Ackman sees the potential for Hertz to rise to 30 euros per share by 2029, whereas before the current rally the shares were still trading below 5 euros. So the future looks promising.
Netflix shines after strong quarterly figures
In the USA, Netflix $NFLX (+1,17%) caused a sensation in the after-hours trading session on Thursday when the company presented its quarterly results, which exceeded Wall Street's expectations. These impressive figures are mainly due to higher subscription prices and increased advertising revenue.
Netflix shares have risen 9% since the beginning of the year and are up almost 60% in the last 12 months. Analysts agree that Netflix is well equipped to weather economic downturns. JPMorgan even describes the company as the "most resilient" they have observed. Netflix has the goal of doubling its revenues by 2030 and reaching a market capitalization of 1 trillion euros.
In recent days, the relative strength of the share price has improved, indicating a possible turning point. The shares rose by 3.5% to around 1,007 euros in after-hours trading. Investors should now watch out for key resistance levels around EUR 1,065 and EUR 1,300, while support levels are at EUR 821 and EUR 697.
Sources:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ackman-says-pershing-owns-19-203543846.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/watch-netflix-price-levels-stock-032715054.html
Principais criadores desta semana
