Postos
657$$MELI (-3,51%) I have always searched in vain for a favorable entry point. With a forward P/E ratio of 40 the stock is far from cheap but with a sales growth 5 Y CAGR of 54% it is relatively "cheap"
$META (-2,32%) I don't think I need to say much. Forward P/E of 25 with the growth and the moat.
$IREN (+7,51%)
$META (-2,32%)
$MSFT (-0,06%)
$NBIS (+1,4%)
$EQIX (+1,27%)
$DLR (+2,64%)
ein toller Beitrag von $IREN (+7,51%) auf x (Jim Liu) weshalb ich ihn hier teilen möchte, wirklich sehr gut geschrieben.
A fair skeptical question I’ve been asked on $IREN (+7,51%) is: If $IREN (+7,51%) overplays their hand, could hyperscalers can simply say, “Forget it, we’ll build ourselves.”? The answer is that hyperscalers are definitely acquiring power and building datacenters themselves but that’s still not enough; I will go into detail.
Projections for power shortfalls by 2030, 2035 are huge but seem far into the future, so let’s use 2028: by 2028 there will be a 36GW shortfall (1) (sources provided by number in comments). A general shortfall number seems hand wavy so let’s look at what this shortfall actually means.
1. The first misunderstanding is the assumption that if the all the tech CEOs and US government is aware about this problem then US will fix the shortfall within 1-2 years, after all the US is still the most powerful nation on earth. Well the upper bound for quickly building infrastructure is China. China is adding 290 GW to their grid in 2025 (2). 290 GW is a massive number right? Who needs 3GW from $IREN (+7,51%) when China can add 290 GWs in one year? Well 290 GWs is peak generation - sources like window, solar are intermittent and cannot sustain peak capacity and batteries only smooth out the power curve, not generate more power. With batteries and base generation to smooth it out and accounting for transmission losses, the effective continuous load supplied will be 22% of the peak generation or to 65GW (3). Now 65GW is still alot, so what’s the deal with 3GW? Well you see, the 65GW that came out in 2025 was planned in China’s 14th 5-year plan (4). Although China’s 14th 5-year plan was announced in 2021, the work needed to meet deadlines started in 2017/2018. Now this 65GW was due to their high projections in heavy industry and manufacturing, EVs, air conditioning, etc. China is the country to over builds infrastructure to maintain employment numbers, this is where high speed rail operates at a loss and prime real estate in Tain Fu District Guangzhou to fall 40% due to overbuild. However, in 2018, China never accounted for AI HPC. Even with manufacturing demand and EV adoption slower lower than projections and extra GW allocated to AI HPC, China still faces a shortfall of power for AI HPC (5). Let’s face it, the US builds infrastructure much slower than China, this is not a 2-3 year solvable problem. Even if small nuclear reactors ($OKLO ) first come out in 2028, it will take at least 1-2 years for them to ramp up to fully supply the shortfall.
2. Hyperscalers will never put their GB300s on the Chinese grid for obvious reasons. The 36GW shortfall is for the American grid. So what’s happening in North America? Hyperscalers are trying some uncertain projects like $MSFT (-0,06%) Three Mile Island restart scheduled for 2028 (6) and small modular reactors. Now geeze, $MSFT (-0,06%) has plenty of time until 2028, if one of it’s best plans to get more power in 2028 is to restart Three Mile Island, what kind of plans does it have for 2026 or 2027? $NBIS (+1,4%) 300MW of IaaS is not going to be enough to fulfill demand. You hear that Meta is getting very serious about its AI ambitions. It announce it’s 1GW Ohio DC called Prometheus. Closer inspections shows that the 1GW DC will be powered by Two 200MW natural gas facilities coming up in Q3 2026 and 440MW of solar (7). Solar has a capacity factor of 18%. Meta’s 1GW Hyperion DC has ~480MW of power at this time. You see the short fall? $META (-2,32%) announces it’s 2027 Hyperion DC to have 1.5GW IT Load (2.26GW of generation to get 1.5GW of IT Load), but upon closer inspection the first two gas turbines are expected to come online in 2028 and the third is expected to come online 2029 (8). Now 2028 is actually pretty fast for 2.26GW, how did Meta even secure the deal? It’s paying 3.2B extra for the gas turbines that will be to be owned by Entergy (9) on top of paying all the regular costs for the DC power. If $META (-2,32%) is paying 3.2B of extra cost for 2.26GW in 2028/2029, how much would 2.2GW in 2026 (Childress + SW1) and 3GW by 2027 for $IREN (+7,51%) be? With With xAI’s 1GW Colossus 2 is coming out in 2026, is Meta going pray that it can fill in the power gap for it’s Prometheus, or chill out until late 2028 when Hyperion is ready?
3. In NA, there were $64 billion of DC blocked or delayed in 2024/2025 (10) because the grid simply doesn’t support that much and people don’t want their electricity bills going up. So that’s pushing GPUs DC’s to two hot areas: energy abundant areas like West Texas and behind the grid gas turbines. West Texas is under Ercot and BTC miners taken all the early power capacity area since 2017 and have queue up the power pipeline to 2030. Crusoe and Lancium contracted out its power to Oracle and OpenAI. Everyone else is bragging about their power pipeline in West Texas but there’s not enough power as Ercot will deny over half of power pipelines between now and 2030 (11). IREN does not disclose its power pipeline rumored to be 5-6GW (12) and only public announces the 3GW with interconnect agreements.
4. Now what about gas turbines behind the meter? Isn’t that what xAI did for Colossus 1/2 and what DataOne did for $NBIS (+1,4%) ? Well gas turbines have a wait time of 5-7 years (13). Colossus took their gas turbine from abroad, disassembled it and then is rebuilding it in Mississippi (14). I love $TSLA (-2,02%) mission but let’s be real here: Europe/Japan/China aren’t in excess of power plants and Elon conveniently omitted where the gas turbines came from: it probably came from a 2nd/3rd world country who sold out their infrastructure with the byproduct being their people’s suffering. This isn’t really scalable. DataOne is a spin out as BSO’s GPU data center division who have been in the datacenter business since 2024. DataOne/BSO like $IREN (+7,51%) had the foresight to procure long lead-time items.
5. So now the question is: what does it mean for $IREN (+7,51%) to over play their hand? Has CPU datacenter operators like $EQIX (+1,27%) ($75B), $DLR (+2,64%) ($55B), and many similar sized privately owned operators like BSO overplayed their hand? Why doesn’t AWS, GCP, Azure build more of it’s own datacenters instead of let $75B and $55B market cap “middle-men” develop? The GPU datacenter operator space will undoubtedly be larger than the CPU datacenter operator space and $IREN (+7,51%) will be 2-3x larger than $EQIX (+1,27%) and $DLR (+2,64%) once it’s said and done. And that’s if $IREN (+7,51%) doesn’t move up the software stack.
Sources:
(1)https://x.com/sectorsignals/status/1873257677595484382?s=46&t=5M46IuHFFx0VtfxNNuG8NA
(3) https://makayda.com/blog/what-is-capacity-factor
(4)https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/china-14th-five-year-plan/
(9)https://lailluminator.com/2025/08/20/entergy-meta/
(10) https://www.datacenterwatch.org/report
(11)https://x.com/umbisam/status/1968272986584351104?s=46&t=5M46IuHFFx0VtfxNNuG8NA
(12)https://x.com/fransbakker9812/status/1964911703059238927?s=46&t=5M46IuHFFx0VtfxNNuG8NA
Hello everyone,
I am 20 years old, currently have a custody account of around CHF 37,000 with IBKR and save around CHF 600 per month.
My current statement:
Considering:
My thoughts:
👉 Questions for you:
Thank you for your feedback 🚀
For companies like $DUOL it is currently not an easy time. More and more big tech companies are launching new gadgets and features on the market to simplify translation and communication.
And that's only after $AAPL (-0,07%) and ChatGPT have also already entered the market. As a reminder:
What do you think: is the business model of #Duolingo under pressure? You can definitely see the fear of investors in the share price.
Dear Community,
even if a bit late, I would like to share my €300k portfolio milestone with you!
My approach (28 years old, Quality-Growth Tech)
I pursue a buy-and-hold strategy with a focus on companies that have the potential to become real "compound machines". In doing so, I concentrate on:
Selection criteria:
Sector allocation: My portfolio is mainly focused on IT, semiconductors and financial services - sectors that I believe will continue to shape the economy in the future.
Core positions (>50% of the portfolio):
$NVDA (-0,81%) | $GOOGL (-0,71%) | $META (-2,32%) | $AMZN (-1,26%) | $MSFT (-0,06%) | $AVGO (-0,53%) The deliberate overweighting of the tech sector reflects my conviction that information technology remains the key growth driver.
New development: In addition, I have recently taken advantage of the high market volatility for short-term swing trades, which sometimes give me more and sometimes less return
Roast my approach! 😄
Where do you see weaknesses? What would you do differently?
Small swing trade. In my eyes, Meta still has some catching up to do. My target price is around 840$ currently at 768$ still a little below the ath at 785$ so my target is only just under 10% above the current price, but hopefully this effect will be fueled by rising dollar rates, if you like also due to the falling euro you know what I mean, so that I can hopefully cash out with 12-18% by the end of the year. Otherwise I just have a small meta position in the portfolio $META (-2,32%)
You have $5,000 to build a portfolio, how are you building it based on these prices:
$1,000 each - $AAPL (-0,07%)
$TSLA (-2,02%)
$NVDA (-0,81%)
$MSFT (-0,06%)
$META (-2,32%)
$750 each - $HD (-0,1%)
$SBUX (-0,94%)
$LOW (-0,73%)
$AVGO (-0,53%)
$COST (-0,5%)
$500 each - $JNJ (+1,56%)
$ABBV (-1,76%)
$CSCO (-0,65%)
$UNH (+1,67%)
$KO (+0,55%)
Hi there, I'm getting in touch again,
Since I now have 7000€ cash on Trade Republic, and have invested 3000 rather "ignorantly" and just tried around, I have now decided that I want to go 70/30, i.e. 70% ETFs for secure wealth accumulation and 30% to invest in individual shares.
With the ETFs I have invested in
$ISPY (-1,06%) (as I have a computer science degree myself and find the topic interesting for the future)
thought of ETFs,
and for individual shares rather
thought.
What do you think of the list?
is there anything where you say no way?
A Alphabet, holding da Google, continua a ser um dos exemplos mais sólidos de criação de valor a longo prazo. Apesar dos riscos associados ao seu negócio terem vindo a ser amplamente mencionados, nomeadamente os processos judiciais que ameaçavam a venda do search e o impacto dos LLMs no crescimento do motor de busca, a empresa tem-se mostrado resiliente.
O seu modelo de negócio combina escalabilidade, rentabilidade e uma aposta contínua em inovação:
- Domínio de mercado: conta com mais de 90% do mercado global de pesquisa e com mais de 2 mil milhões de utilizadores ativos no YouTube; 📊
- Modelo altamente rentável: margens operacionais robustas, capacidade de geração de caixa e um ROIC superior a 35%; 📈
- Diversificação crescente: embora 75% da receita ainda advenha da publicidade, o crescimento acelerado do Google Cloud e das subscrições digitais (YouTube Premium, Google One) está a reduzir esta dependência; 🚀
- Aposta em IA: a Alphabet está a integrar o Gemini em Search, YouTube e Workspace, abrindo novas fontes de monetização; 📌
- Reservas de caixa robustas: mais de 100 mil milhões de dólares em liquidez, permitindo financiar investimentos maciços em IA e infraestrutura sem comprometer a solidez financeira; 💼
- Opções estratégicas de longo prazo: através das Other Bets, mantém exposição a áreas emergentes com elevado potencial de crescimento, como mobilidade autónoma (Waymo), saúde digital (Verily) e longevidade (Calico).
Este equilíbrio entre negócio core altamente rentável, diversificação em crescimento e apostas estratégicas disruptivas é o que faz da Alphabet uma empresa singular e um investimento que continua a merecer atenção.
🔎 Se quiseres saber mais sobre esta oportunidade de investimento visita a análise completa em: https://open.substack.com/pub/dalemcapital/p/alphabet-inc-analise-completa
$AMZN (-1,26%)
$GOOG (-0,49%)
$CRM (+0,55%)
$NOVO B (+1,06%)
$NVDA (-0,81%)
$ASML (-0,29%)
$PLTR (-7,17%)
$O (+0,29%)
$PEP (-0,17%)
$VICI (-0,45%)
$META (-2,32%)
$MSFT (-0,06%)
$AAPL (-0,07%)
Trump recently organized a big dinner with the most important minds from the tech world, which caused quite a stir worldwide. It was particularly striking that all the guests gave a kind of acceptance speech to Trump, which was a bit reminiscent of the GDR and the like.
Although I'm actually still quite sympathetic to Trump (he's at least not half as embarrassing as most European heads of government), I still find it a bit strange. It does seem a bit like a staged soap opera.
I mean, it's clear that as a serious businessman you exchange formal courtesies on such an occasion and don't go completely crazy and start insulting the president or something. So it's not entirely funny. But I also kind of wonder who came up with the idea that everyone should say a few words in turn? I mean, they can't help but say something nice. Still, it's kind of a funny picture howt Bill Gates has to attest to Trump's "great leadership".
Among others also present were Sam Altman ($AMD (-3,57%) ) Lisa Su ($AAPL (-0,07%) ) Tim Cook ($ORCL (-1,39%) ) Safra Catz and ( $MU (+2,03%) ) Sanjay Mehrotra
But more important than who was there is actually who was missing. The press noted with great satisfaction that ($TSLA (-2,02%) ) Elon Musk was not there and speculated that he had not even been invited - which Musk has already denied. ($NVDA (-0,81%) ) Jensen Huang and ($AMZN (-1,26%) ) Andy Jassy were also not on site.
Trump is definitely seeking proximity to the tech industry. The behavior of ($META (-2,32%) ) Mark Zuckerbergwho took the place of honor to Trump's right, but actually seemed frightened rather than confident. Another important moment was a brief conversation between Trump and ($GOOG (-0,49%)
$GOOGL (-0,71%) ) Sundar Pichai regarding a federal judge's ruling this week in an antitrust case involving Google's monopoly on search. The judge handed down a lenient sentence and rejected the demands for harsh penalties. The company thus escaped being broken up.
"You had a very good day yesterday," said Trump. "Do you want to talk about that great day you had yesterday?" He was glad it was over, Pichai replied. "Biden was the one who pushed this lawsuit,"Trump said. "You know that, right?"
So Trump is pursuing a Bismarckian carrot and stick policy with the tech CEOs. Those who get in line get help from the state, those who step out of line are reprimanded.
Principais criadores desta semana
