Dear community,

I have been investing for almost exactly 3 years now and pursue a dividend strategy with a "core" of 3 monthly saved ETFs.

After a personally difficult year in 2024, I am trying to keep my savings rate at € 200-300 per month in 2025.

This will be divided as follows:

50-100€ FTSE

30-50€ Europe

20-30€ EM IMI

The remaining approx. 100€ goes into my dividend share portfolio. I don't usually make any really strategic choices there to continue saving... I just save the ones I want... As I want to keep all the shares, I perhaps don't see any real reason to make a critical selection.

Maybe you can still give me some tips.

I would like to add 6 more dividend payers to my dividend portfolio in the future.

$CAT (-2,26%) , $CL (+2,47%) , $BATS (-1,84%) , $CSCO (-0,55%) , $SIE (-0,45%) , $WFC (-1,02%)

Thank you for your attention.

Have you ever wondered where the Gates Foundation invests its money? In the fourth quarter of 2024, the foundation has impressive holdings in its portfolio.

The foundation manages assets of around 42.02 billion US dollars and is one of the largest private foundations in the world. The main stocks include Berkshire Hathaway , Canadian National Railway and Microsoft .

Here is an overview of some of the largest holdings:

- Microsoft: USD 11.99 billion (28.54%) $MSFT (-1,57%)

- Berkshire Hathaway: USD 8.91 billion (21.20%) $BRK.A (+0,95%)
$BRK.B (-0,13%)

- Waste Management: USD 6.5 billion (15.48%) $WM (-0,95%)

- Canadian National Railway: USD 5.57 billion (13.24%) $CNR (+0,55%)

- Caterpillar: USD 2.67 billion (6.35%) $CAT (-2,26%)

These investments show that the Gates Foundation invests in both traditional and future-oriented companies.

What do you think of the Gates Foundation's investment decisions? Do you think they are backing the right horses? 📈

According to the wisdom of a stock exchange

Nevertheless, there are stocks that I would never sell 😍

For me, these include Apple, Microsoft, Coca-Cola, John Deere, Caterpillar and Waste Management, which I only buy and never sell 🥰

Which shares would you never part with?

Recently entered an interesting area. In my view, this was a good entry point

In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.

Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

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In this post:

• Influence on inflation
• New tariffs in force
• Reaction of the countries
• Consequences for the global economy
• Winners & losers
• Investment opportunities

__________

The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].

The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.

The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.

I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.

After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.

A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:

💰 Influence on inflation

On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:

The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.

Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.

🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned

As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]

But this is just the beginning:

From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:

• computer chips
• pharmaceuticals
• Steel, aluminum and copper
• Oil and gas imports (but only from February 18 with reduced 10% tariffs so as not to burden US petrol prices immediately).

🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation

Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.

Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:

"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"

The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:

"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"

🔄 Canada's reaction:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".

The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:

• The new tariffs could increase the cost of living of an average US household by 800 dollars per year.
• The oil and gas tariffs could increase the price of petrol in the USA by up to 20 cents per liter.

But Trump remains firm:

"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."

🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy

(a) Rising prices in the USA

• Technology & electronicsHigher chip prices are hitting companies such as Apple $AAPL (+0,26%) , Dell $DELL and HP $HPQ (-0,12%) as many of their components come from China.

• Healthcare costs: Pharmaceutical companies such as CVS Health $CVS (-2,18%) and Walgreens Boots Alliance $WBA (-3,09%) are facing higher purchasing costs.

• Construction & InfrastructureHigher steel prices are weighing on companies such as Lennar $LEN (-1,45%) D.R. Horton $DHI (-1,49%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-2,26%) .

(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?

• China could impose tariffs on US products, which could affect e.g. Archer Daniels Midland $ADM (+4,11%) Boeing $BA (-1,57%) and Qualcomm $QCOM (-4,11%) would be affected.

• The EU could make US imports more expensive, which would affect Tesla $TSLA (-4,32%) , Ford $F (-0,67%) and General Motors $GM (-2,75%) could be harmed.

(c) Effects on the stock market

• Volatility is increasing as there is uncertainty about the consequences for various industries.

• Particularly affected: Technology and automotive stocks with global supply chains.

🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?

Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs

US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper

• Nucor $NUE (-2,98%) , U.S. Steel $X (-2,22%) and Freeport-McMoRan $FCX (-4,12%) could benefit as foreign competition becomes more expensive as a result of the tariffs.

Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies

• Pfizer $PFE (+1,91%) Moderna $MRNA (+6,04%) and Eli Lilly $LLY (+0,32%) could gain market share.

Energy companies with US production

• ExxonMobil $XOM (-0,73%) , Chevron$CVX (-0,58%) and Expand Energy $CHK (-1,7%) could benefit from rising prices for US oil and gas.

Chip manufacturers with US production

• Intel $INTC (-4,07%) and Texas Instruments$TXN (-0,26%) have US factories and could gain market share.

😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs

Chip manufacturers with global supply chains

• Apple $AAPL (+0,26%) NVIDIA $NVDA (-3,63%) , AMD $AMD (-2,29%) are dependent on Asian imports and could see higher production costs.

Car manufacturers with global suppliers

• Tesla $TSLA (-4,32%) , Ford $F (-0,67%) , General Motors $GM (-2,75%) are under pressure because components from Mexico and Canada could become more expensive.

Companies with strong export business

• Boeing $BA (-1,57%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-2,26%) suffer from possible retaliatory tariffs.

US retailers with a high import share

• Walmart $WMT (-2,31%) , Target $TGT (-2,56%) and Nike $NKE (-0,48%) could have to pass on rising prices to customers.

🧠 Possible investment strategies

Favor defensive sectors:

• Utilities (e.g. NextEra Energy $NEE (+2,37%) Duke Energy $DUK (+2,62%) ) and healthcare companies (e.g. UnitedHealth $UNH (-6,94%) , Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+2,12%) ) remain more stable.

Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":

• Intel $INTC (-4,07%) , Eli Lilly $LLY (+0,32%) , Nucor $NUE (-2,98%) could benefit in the long term.

Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?

With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.

❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?

Thanks for reading! 🤝

__________

Sources:

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-finance-chartbook-44-charts-that-tell-the-story-of-markets-and-the-economy-to-start-2025-105856766.html

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-charts-show-why-markets-are-skittish-about-trumps-tariff-policy-144318249.html

[3] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/usa-unter-trump/trumps-verhaengt-zoelle-gegen-kanada-mexiko-und-china-110269990.html?

[4]

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2025-01/64440108-trump-usa-werden-ab-mitte-februar-zoelle-auf-computerchips-stahl-sowie-oel-und-gasimporte-erheben-015.htm

[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

Seized the day today and took heavy losses.

$CVS (-2,18%) sold completely and from the remaining money

position $CAT (-2,26%) and rebuilt the positions $ABBV (+0,94%) , $VZ (+1,11%) and $ETN (-2,59%) increased.

I expect the latter in particular to deliver strong share price and earnings growth in data centers, automation, drive and aviation technology. Everything that has to do with electrification. 😅

In view of the US elections, the question arises: could Trump's return actually boost the industry? After all, his policies could focus heavily on infrastructure, deregulation and energy.

Which stocks do you think are best positioned in this scenario?

My personal favorites for 'Trump trades' in this regard would be:

Caterpillar (construction equipment & infrastructure) $CAT (-2,26%)

Parker Hannifin (industrial components & automation) $PH (-3,71%)

Tetra Tech (engineering services, especially for water projects) $TTEK (+0,7%)

I am looking forward to your assessments!

Depot review November 2024 - The depot is growing despite larger withdrawals 🚀

Before I continue with the second part of my investment story, I would first like to share my portfolio review for November.

The second half of November was almost quiet compared to what happened at the beginning of November. Trump was elected, triggering a veritable run on the stock markets. Germany was finally freed from the traffic lights and there were also some exciting topics in the private sphere. I sold a few shares back in October to generate the equity I needed to start building a house. This continued a little further in November.

Overall, my savings rate will also (have to) be lower over the next few months. Less into the portfolio and more into the "buffer account" for building the house. Nevertheless, around €500 per month will continue to be invested and this will be pushed up again as quickly as possible.

After selling 6 shares and an ETF in October, I sold parts of my MSCI World ETF for around €13,000.

But now it's finally time to look at the hard figures:

Monthly view:

In total, November was +6,3%. This corresponds to price gains of ~20.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +7.3% and the S&P500 +5.1%

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers is particularly exciting this month:

On the winning side with a total of almost €5,000 in price gains, my crypto investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is followed by the long runner NVIDIA with price gains of just under €2,000. 4th and 5th place then goes to the cybersecurity sector with Palo Alto Networks and Crowdstrike.

On the loser side looks very quiet this month. Amgen is still the worst performer with losses of ~€600 due to a weight loss drug that failed to fully meet Wall Street's hopes. This is followed by Sartorius with share price losses of €200. Places 3-5 are then occupied by share price losses of less than €100. All in all, a month with almost no losers.

The performance-neutral movements in October amounted to just under € -6,000. Parts have already been removed here for private topics.

current year:

My performance in the current year is +29,9% and thus above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 26.9%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~345.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€93,000 in the current year 2023. ~72.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~3.300€ from dividends / interest and ~16.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in November were 21% above the previous year at ~€160
• Procter & Gamble is in the lead with a (gross) dividend of €50 every 3 months.
• In the current year, the dividends after 11 months are +25% over the first 11 months of 2023 at ~2.500€

Buying & selling:

• I bought in November for significantly reduced ~700€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue ChipsProcter & Gamble $PG (+2,23%) TSMC $TSM (-0,58%) S&P Global $SPGI (-0,29%) Alphabet $GOOGL (-2,28%) Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+2,12%) Amgen $AMGN (+3,04%) Herhey $HSY (+4,29%) Alimentation Couche-Tard $ATD (-1,07%) Caterpillar $CAT (-2,26%)
• 
  GrowthBechtle $BC8 (-0,42%)
• 
  ETFsMSCI World $XDWD (-0,98%) Nikkei 225 $XDJP (+0,1%) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (-0,99%)
• 
  CryptoBitcoin $BTC (+0,1%) and Ethereum $ETH (+0,99%)
• 
  Sales as mentioned at the beginning, there was a larger part of my MSCI World holdings in November

Target 2024 & outlook 2025:

My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Due to the extremely positive market performance in the current year, my portfolio already stands at ~€345,000 at the end of November.

As is well known, one should not praise the day before the evening, but I am optimistic that my portfolio will not fall so far in December that I will not reach my target.

What will happen in 2025? The logical goal would of course be to reach €400,000. However, due to the upcoming house construction, part of the assets will be invested in the house construction. If I include the property in my statement of assets, the target of €400,000 would of course not change. However, as I am tracking my liquid assets here, I will probably refrain from doing so.

Therefore, my year-end target for 2025 will probably be closer to the final balance for 2024. So around €350,000 at the end of 2025.

How are things looking for you? Have you already thought about your plans for 2025?

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

Komatsu the alternative to Caterpillar?

Company presentation

Komatsu Ltd. is one of the world's leading manufacturers of construction and mining machinery, headquartered in Tokyo, Japan. Founded in 1921, the company has developed into a global corporation and is now active in over 140 countries.

Core business and main products

Komatsu's core business is the production and sale of construction and mining equipment. The broad product portfolio includes

• Hydraulic excavators
• wheel loaders
• bulldozers
• Dump trucks
• forestry machines
• Industrial machines such as grinding machines and press brakes

Komatsu also offers comprehensive financing solutions and aftermarket services.

Mission and vision

Under the guiding principle "Creating value together", Komatsu pursues the goal of shaping a sustainable future in which people, companies and the environment thrive in harmony through technological innovation and advances in manufacturing.

Foundation and early years

Komatsu was founded in 1921 by Meitaro Takeuchi in the city of Komatsu, Japan, with the aim of providing new jobs for the local community after the closure of a nearby copper mine.

Business model & core competencies

Komatsu relies on a diversified business model with multiple revenue streams:

• Construction and mining equipment
• Industrial machinery and other products
• Financial services

Competitive advantages

• Global presence and strong market position, particularly in Asia and America
• Comprehensive product portfolio for various industrial sectors
• Focus on innovation, especially in the field of autonomous and electric machines
• Strong production capacities with 25 production sites worldwide

(America is the most important market and twice as large as Asia. The other regions also contribute to sales and are largely equally represented. Most regions are in decline).

Future prospects & strategic initiatives

Komatsu is investing heavily in intelligent construction machinery and autonomous mining trucks. Ambitious development projects include underwater electric bulldozers and lunar excavators.

Market position & competition

As the world's second largest construction machinery manufacturer, Komatsu competes with companies such as:

• $CAT (-2,26%) (USA)
• Volvo Construction Equipment
• $HTCMY Construction Machinery (Japan)

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The global construction equipment market is estimated at USD 171.1 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% between 2024 and 2032, driven by infrastructure investments and urbanization in emerging markets. Komatsu is well positioned to capitalize on this growth, particularly in the key markets of Asia and the Americas.

Share performance

$6301 (-0,31%) Komatsu is listed in the Nikkei 225 Index and has achieved a TR of 91% (13.8% CAGR) over the past 5 years. Caterpillar is at 193% TR and thus clearly outperformed.

For the development (company figures), a better view and more, check out the free blog: https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/komatsu-die-alternative-zur-caterpillar

Conclusion

We don't need to beat around the bush: Caterpillar was clearly the better stock, made clear decisions and showed a superior performance. This is especially true when calculated in dollars or euros, where Komatsu has made just 20% over 5 years (excluding dividends), but this does not mean that Komatsu is not a good stock. There is a change going on in Japan, including at Komatsu, where companies are rethinking and adjusting their capital allocation. As a result, management is increasingly focusing on share buybacks, dividend increases and improved capital efficiency. This is also indicated by Komatsu's management.

With these measures, the stock can perform significantly better than it has in the past, assuming the company stays the course. Even if the figures are worse overall, they still show an increase, and in some areas capital efficiency is above 10%. The problem in general is, albeit "only" the yen.

Komatsu's EV-to-EBITDA ratio is about half that of Caterpillar, which means Komatsu can catch up here, and by unusual measures. In other words, expectations are lower, which represents an opportunity to exceed them.

In addition to the positive trend in the industry, there are also other interesting topics. The yen is significantly weaker than the US dollar, which is causing some stocks to underperform, but this could change.

If more capital is withdrawn from the balance sheet, this is beneficial for shareholders and puts less pressure on the key figures. It makes you better on a dollar basis. What has happened recently could be beneficial for foreign investors.

The share is cheap, which is justified, but offers plenty of scope for further growth.

So who might be interested in the stock? It could be attractive to those who believe in long-term growth and a solid strategy. Investors who are prepared to tolerate waiting and who are betting on a possible capital allocation and dividend increases will find interesting potential in this share. For those hoping for a stabilization of the yen against the dollar and positive market developments in Japan, Komatsu could also be a choice worth considering. For everyone else, Caterpillar is clearly the better stock.

What does this mean for me? I am actually looking for a cheap alternative to Caterpillar, and Komatsu would be ideal. However, the yen is extremely weak at the moment, which makes it less attractive. That's why I'm holding back for the time being.

An entry would make sense for me if the management has actively shown that it is improving the balance sheet and deploying capital more efficiently. A recovery in the yen/dollar exchange rate would also be crucial.

However, if both factors improve, an entry would be interesting for me. Basically, there is nothing significant wrong with the company itself.