Postos
89Just before Valentine's Day, I treated myself to something for the heart and bet on another turnaround candidate. I actually wanted to wait a bit before investing this year, but the baby had already fallen into the well anyway. That's why $CVS (-4,46%) a new position was added to the portfolio, opening up the clearly underweighted HealthCare sector.
Nothing less than $100 per share should be the minimum target.
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $1.19 (Est. $1.00) 🟢
🔹 Revenue: $97.7B (Est. $96.97B) 🟢
🔹 Medical Membership: 27.1M; UP +1.4M YoY
FY25 Guidance:
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $5.75–$6.00 (Est. $5.97) 😐
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: ~$6.5B
Health Care Benefits
🔹 Revenue: $32.96B (Est. $32.96B) 🟢; UP +23% YoY
🔹 Adjusted Operating Loss: ($439M) (vs. $676M gain YoY)
🔹 Medical Benefit Ratio: 94.8% (UP +6.3 pts YoY)
Health Services
🔹 Revenue: $47.02B (Est. $44.02B) 🟢; DOWN -4% YoY
🔹 Adjusted Operating Income: $1.76B; DOWN -5% YoY
🔹 Pharmacy Claims Processed: 499.4M (DOWN -16.9% YoY)
Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness
🔹 Revenue: $33.51B (Est. $32.88B) 🟢; UP +7.5% YoY
🔹 Adjusted Operating Income: $1.76B; DOWN -13.3% YoY
🔹 Prescriptions Filled: 445.9M (UP +3.3% YoY)
CEO David Joyner:
🔸"Our integrated model continues to drive growth in key areas like Pharmacy and Consumer Wellness, despite challenges in the Health Care Benefits segment. We are positioned for strong performance in FY25, focusing on improving outcomes and reducing costs."
Tonight I'll take a closer look at $CVS (-4,46%) in the IR to see what has been reported.
The price reaction today is at least something positive compared to the last few months.
Next week won't be boring either 🫡
There's something for everyone 😁
What numbers are you looking forward to? 🧐
$MCD (-4,77%)
$VRTX (+0,82%)
$KO (-3,58%)
$SPGI (-6,99%)
$VRT (-11,98%)
$PANW (-6,21%)
$CVS (-4,46%)
$MEDP (-7%)
$ACLS (-4,64%)
$THC (-8,75%)
$TTD (-5,16%)
$CSCO (-3,89%)
$APP (-15,44%)
$HOOD (-9,32%)
$DE (-2,93%)
$AMAT (-5,46%)
$ABNB (-5,32%)
In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.
Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.
__________
In this post:
__________
The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].
The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.
The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.
I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.
After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.
A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:
💰 Influence on inflation
On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:
The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.
Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.
🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned
As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:
According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]
But this is just the beginning:
From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:
🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation
Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.
Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:
"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"
The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:
"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"
🔄 Canada's reaction:
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".
The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:
However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.
Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:
But Trump remains firm:
"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."
🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy
(a) Rising prices in the USA
(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?
(c) Effects on the stock market
🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?
Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs
US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper
Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies
Energy companies with US production
Chip manufacturers with US production
😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs
Chip manufacturers with global supply chains
Car manufacturers with global suppliers
Companies with strong export business
US retailers with a high import share
🧠 Possible investment strategies
Favor defensive sectors:
Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":
Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?
With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.
❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?
Thanks for reading! 🤝
__________
Sources:
[4]
[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html
Seized the day today and took heavy losses.
$CVS (-4,46%) sold completely and from the remaining money
position $CAT (-4,89%) and rebuilt the positions $ABBV (-7,06%) , $VZ (-4,51%) and $ETN (-5,53%) increased.
I expect the latter in particular to deliver strong share price and earnings growth in data centers, automation, drive and aviation technology. Everything that has to do with electrification. 😅
Thank you very much for all the good wishes and the first few comments on my project.
The first tranches have fluttered into the portfolio! As already announced, the focus is on high-quality, stable dividend payers.
The following key figures are evaluated
Dividend yield
Dividend continuity
Dividend growth
Quality of the company
You can also see 2 unrated stocks, one is Reality Incom, a REIT and therefore not rated with typical characteristics. Therefore "unrated" for me but a must have in a dividend portfolio.
On the other hand, NOVO, where I am betting on the quality and potential growth of the company, coupled with the current weakness of the share price. I want to take advantage of such (supposed) buying opportunities and give the portfolio a certain growth potential in addition to the dividend.
I did not get any execution on United Health Group and Philip Morris.
On Sunday, I will look at my watchlist again and see which stocks are currently correcting and possibly reaching a support level, or are correcting the last move in the uptrend and have a chance of continuing the trend.
Have a nice weekend. Enjoy your time off and let it rip...
hummel hummel...
$O (-2,42%)
$AWK (-2,31%)
$DHL (-6,85%)
$RIO (-6,32%)
$CVS (-4,46%)
$NOVO B (-6,66%)
$PEP (-1,81%)
The industry is finally at an acceleration point.
In February 2023 U.S. introduced the "Increasing Competitiveness for American Drones Act" which streamlined the approval of licenses for operating drones over American territory.
The advances in Ai have helped develop "detect and avoid" software for autonomous drones.
And at the same time the development of GPUs have allowed these software to be installed on small and light autonomous drones.
It has been 12 years since Jeff Bezos unveiled Amazon's plans to develop "Prime Air" a 30 minutes air drone delivery service. This happened during an episode of the tv show "60 minutes" in November 2013. youtu.be/Fbq6gQVLhWE
Yesterday night I was reading an article about Serve Robotics finance.yahoo.com/nvidia-uber-backing-700-million and I go inspired to make some research into the delivery drone industry. The article talk about $NVDA (-7,25%) and $UBER (-6,53%) investment into $SERV . If you don't want to read the full article, actually @BamBamInvest just made a short summary post of it ( https://getqu.in/RoQSMH/ ).
I investigated on "last mile" delivery also known as "backyard / front yard delivery" . So I will not talk about robotaxi, autonomous truck, ships, airplanes nor I will talk about "micro" delivery drones such as those robots that are already heavily used in hotels in China. All of these surely overlap and compete with each other in the delivery service, but talking about these would defeat the purpose of this post.
So here is my summary of notable drone delivery companies and the current state of the industry.
For starters, there are just two types of delivery drones that are being currently "heavily" deployed for last mile deliveries: with "wings" (UAV) and on wheels.
Delivery on wheels are more complicated and don't see much competition. In U.S. the main player is Serve Robotics ($SERV ). In China is Meituan ( $3690 (-8,09%) ).
Until the beginning of 2024, Amazon ( $AMZN (-3,47%) ) drone delivery service has completely underdelivered 😅 while other players have taken the lead. One of these is Wing, a subsidiary of Google parent company Alphabet ( $GOOG (-2,49%) , $GOOGL (-2,74%) ) wing.com . Wing altogether with DroneUp, flytrex (partner of Causey Aviation Unmanned) and Zipline has completed thousands of commercial air deliveries for Walmart ( $WMT (-3,92%) ).
Wing has the broadest customer base. It operates for Walmart, Doordash ( $DASH (-5,77%) ) Coles groceries ($COL (-0,43%) ), Walgreens ($CVS (-4,46%) ) and different restaurants. It operates mainly in Australia and US.
Zipline is a private company known for making hundreds of thousands of medical air deliveries in Rwanda. flyzipline.com
It's very active in U.S. , a close competitor to Wing.
In December 2022 a partnership with Jumia ( $JMIA (-11,6%) ) was announced to ease up deliveries in Africa, but since then no further development is known.
DroneUp is also private and basically it's a subsidiary of Walmart. droneupdelivery.com
In the U.S. , until 2023 only 5 drone operators had succeeded at getting air carrier certification from the FAA: Wings ($GOOGL (-2,74%) ), UPS ($UPS (-1,35%) ), Amazon ($AMZN (-3,47%)), Zipline and Causey Aviation Unmanned.
UPS operates wit Matternet's droves. Matternet is a private company. They successfully operate and deliver in dense urban environment.
Causey Aviation Unmanned is a subsidiary of the private company Causey Aviation which is a private jet charter. Causey Aviation Unmanned operates through Flytrex as a provider of Walmart air delivery. Flytrex is also private. causeyaviationunmanned.com
Other notable air drone delivery companies are Ondas holdings ( $ONDS (+0,31%) ) ondas.com . Ondas is known for its military applications in Israel, but it is actually active with Airobotics in the delivery industry airoboticsdrones.com .
The newest Prime Air drone, the MK30, has been unveiled in October 2023 and it's finally being massively deployed bringing Amazon back to the lead.
It’s unlike any other drone being used for package delivery. Faster, quieter, safer, bad weather resistant and very powerful.
At the end of 2024, these new drones replaced the old ones used to deliver in California and Texas. They will also be deployed in a new, third U.S. state and in soon-to-be-revealed destinations in Italy and the UK.
Outside of US, China is leading the way in urban drone deliveries and Meituan ( $3690 (-8,09%) ) is the current market leader both with UAV and drones on wheels.
In Ireland, Manna Aero, has already completed over 100,000 drone deliveries across various locations in Ireland and is trending to hit more than 1,000 daily deliveries in dense urban markets such in Dublin. Manna Aero is a private company manna.aero .
2024
Portfolio value (performance neutral)
Target 52 000€ -> +18 000€
Achieved 62 300€ -> +28 300€
Target 2025 -> 77 000€
Gross dividend
Target 1000€
Achieved 1018€
expected 2025 -> 1290€+
Daily allowance
Target 12 000€
Reached 13 300€
I would like to reach €15,000 by the end of 2025.
As I have an annual commute of 22,000 km, I'll have to buy a new car in 4 - 5 years' time if my current one no longer works.
In addition, several positions were sold in Q3 - Q4 ($O (-2,42%)
$BATS (-4,36%)
$SIX2 (-6,59%)
$ARCC (-5,64%)
$CVS (-4,46%)
$UNP (-3,99%)$NESN (-3,88%) ) and the focus was also placed on higher growth and dividend growth.
In principle, I have nothing against $UNP (-3,99%) but I see the growth opportunities at $CP (+0,78%) higher as well as a higher profit margin as soon as the acquisition of Kansas City has been optimally integrated into the company in order to work more efficiently.
Hi folks,
my goals for 2024 have now also been set.
Logically, the actual values and expenses can only be determined at the end of 24, so these are projected figures.
Depot (performance neutral):
34 000€ -> 52 000€ (+18 000€)
Dividends:
110€ -> 1000€ (+890€)
Call money (incl. nest egg):
17 000€ -> 12 000€ (- 5000€ will be reduced if buying opportunities arise)
Monthly savings installment (50% of salary):
Depot 1100€
(315€ ETF, 707€ savings plans shares, 25€ Bitcoin)
Daily allowance 300€
-----------
Total 1400€ p.m.
If everything goes as estimated, there will be approx. 5000€ left at the end, which would then flow into the custody account.
FED lets the market slide + CVS is sued by the US Department of Justice
FED cuts interest rates as expected
Nevertheless, the entire stock market is falling. Why did this happen even though the FED cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected?
CVS $CVS (-4,46%)
is being sued
The U.S. Department of Justice is suing CVS for dispensing and billing illegal opioid prescriptions through state health insurance programs that allegedly contributed to the nationwide opioid epidemic. According to the indictment, CVS dispensed dangerous opioid quantities and combinations and premature refills from October 2013 to the present, in violation of the Controlled Substances Act.
Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures
British American Tobacco GBP 0.59
Smith & Wesson Brands USD 0.13
22:00 Fedex quarterly figures
22:15 Nike quarterly figures
07:30 Douglas full year results
09:00 Douglas PK
11:00 Douglas Analyst Conference
08:00 DE: GfK Consumer Climate Indicator January FORECAST: -22.6 points previously: -23.3 points | Insolvencies January
08:45 FR: Business Climate Index December PROGNOSE: 96 previous: 97
13:00 UK: BoE, outcome and minutes of the Monetary Policy Council meeting December Bank Rate FORECAST: 4.75% previously: 4.75%
14:30 US: GDP (3rd release) 3Q annualized PROGNOSE: +2.9% yoy 2nd release: +2.8% yoy 2nd quarter: +3.0% yoy GDP deflator PROGNOSE: +1.9% yoy 2nd release: +1.9% yoy 2nd quarter: +2.5% yoy
14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) Forecast: 230,000 Previous: 242,000 | Philadelphia Fed Index December Forecast: 2.5 Previous: -5.5
16:00 US: Leading Indicators Index November FORECAST: -0.1% yoy previous: -0.4% yoy
16:00 US: Existing Home Sales November FORECAST: +2.5% yoy previous: +3.4% yoy
