Hermes Intl

03.12.2024

Apple at another record high + Hedge fund sells Nvidia and buys SMC, Palantir and AMD + China and Cyber Monday boost consumer stocks

Apple with another record high

• The shares of Apple $AAPL (+0,01%) shares continued Friday's record high at the start of the new trading week. The shares recently traded 1.4 percent higher at 240.65 US dollars, making them one of the top stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial . This makes the iPhone group the most valuable company in the world with a market capitalization of around
• market capitalization of around 3.6 trillion US dollars, ahead of Nvidia $NVDA (+3,55%) with a
• market capitalization of around 3.4 trillion dollars
• At the close of trading, the share price fell slightly to USD 239.59, which is still an increase of 0.95%.

Largest hedge fund in the world has sold Nvidia & is betting on Super Micro & Palantir

• Bridgewater Associates has sold its position in Nvidia $NVDA (+3,55%) in the third quarter and instead sold more shares of Super Micro Computer $SMCI (+3,53%), Palantir Technologies $PLTR (-3,33%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $AMD (+0,66%) were purchased.
• The fund announced the share transactions in a form filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
• Bridgewater sold 1.8 million Nvidia shares to end the third quarter with 4.8 million shares of the artificial intelligence chip maker....

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/18773922-groesster-hedgefonds-welt-bridgewater-nvidia-aktien-verkauft-wettet-super-micro-palantir

China and Cyber Monday boost consumer stocks

• The main winners were shares of luxury goods manufacturers in Europe such as LVMH $MC (-0,45%) and Hermes $RMS (+0,05%) but also Adidas $ADS (+0,19%)
  in the DAX rose by 3.2 percent.
• They benefited from an upward revision of the China Purchasing Managers' Index in November.
• The market is hoping that higher income from their Chinese customers will also boost their willingness to spend. In addition, the ongoing "Cyber Monday" drove the shares of consumer and household goods manufacturers. Also in demand were Munich Re $MUV2 (+0,55%) with a 2.9 percent premium.

Tuesday, stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks

Thales EUR 0.85

ORANGE 0.30 EUR

Linde USD 1.39

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

20:00 AT&T Capital Markets Day

22:05 Salesforce quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Swiss Life Investor Day 2024

• Economic data

08:30 CH: Consumer prices Switzerland November FORECAST: n/a previous: -0.1% yoy/+0.6% yoy

15:00 EU: ECB monthly/bimonthly report on APP/PEPP program

16:00 US: Number of job openings, quits and layoffs (Jolts) October Number of job openings PROGNOSIS: n.a. previously: 7.4 million

Analyst updates, 02.12.24:

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- EXANE BNP upgrades NOVO NORDISK to Outperform. Target price DKK 930. $NOVO B

- HSBC upgrades LVMH to Buy. Target price EUR 727. $MC (-0,45%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises target price for MTU from EUR 278 to EUR 297. Hold. $MTX (+1,02%)

- GOLDMAN raises the price target for VISA from USD 324 to USD 347. Buy $V (-0,94%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH upgrades BASF from Hold to Buy and raises price target from EUR 50 to EUR 55. $BAS (-1,2%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH upgrades BURBERRY from Hold to Buy and raises target price from GBP 8.60 to GBP 11.80. $BRBY (-0,97%)

- GOLDMAN raises the target price for AROUNDTOWN from EUR 2.90 to EUR 3.70. Buy. $AT1 (+0,46%)

- GOLDMAN downgrades TOAST from Buy to Neutral and raises target price from USD 34 to USD 45. $TOST (-10,09%)

- HSBC upgrades HERMES to Buy. Target price 2500 EUR. $RMS (+0,05%)

- MORGAN STANLEY upgrades ZEBRA TECH to Equal-Weight. Target price 400 USD. $ZBRA (+1,01%)

- JPMORGAN upgrades AIR LIQUIDE from Neutral to Overweight and raises target price from EUR 161 to EUR 195. $AI (+0,82%)

- JPMORGAN raises target price for PUMA SE from EUR 44 to EUR 47. Neutral. $PUM (+4,2%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for MASTERCARD from USD 563 to USD 557. Buy. $MA (-1,02%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for AIXTRON from EUR 26 to EUR 24. Buy. $AIXA (+3,64%)

- METZLER lowers the price target for WACKER NEUSON from EUR 14.50 to EUR 14. Hold. $WAC (+0,51%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH downgrades K+S from Hold to Sell and lowers target price from EUR 9.75 to EUR 9.50. $SDF (+2,76%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for BP from GBP 4.70 to GBP 4.40. Hold. $BP. (-0,88%)

- RBC downgrades IBERDROLA from Outperform to Sector-Perform. Target price EUR 14 $IBE (-0,5%)

- RBC lowers the price target for RWE from EUR 52.50 to EUR 45.50. Outperform. $RWE (-2,3%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the target price for ORSTED from DKK 460 to DKK 430. Neutral. $ORSTED (-2,36%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for ADIDAS from EUR 275 to EUR 266. Overweight. $ADS (+0,19%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for LVMH from EUR 685 to EUR 650. Neutral. $MC (-0,45%)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for HUGO BOSS from EUR 43 to EUR 42. Neutral. $BOSS (+8,87%)

$MC (-0,45%) - Failed takeovers of LVMH

and activities of the children of Bernard

Arnault

Did you know the following:

In the late 90s, LVMH tried to take over Gucci, but CEO Domenico De Sole resisted.

He diluted the share price and gave employees a stake, weakening LVMH's control. Then Kering stepped in and secured Gucci.

He also tried Hermes:

In 2010, LVMH secretly acquired 17 percent of Hermès ($RMS (+0,05%) ), triggering a storm of indignation. Hermès fought back with legal disputes and accused LVMH of insider trading and share manipulation.

After years of conflict, LVMH agreed to sell its 23% stake in 2014, ending the intense rivalry.

Who will be the next takeover candidate?

Thanks to all the successful takeovers, LVMH now has an extensive portfolio of 75 brands, which can be seen in the picture.

LVMH is the largest luxury company in the world.

The Arnault family:

Bernard will probably keep the company in the family. As he has five children who are already integrated into the company, these are the potential successors:

1. Delphine

2. Antoine

3. Alexandre

4. Frederic

5. Jean

Delphine (49) is Executive VP of Louis Vuitton.

Delphine has been with LVMH since 2001 and is in charge of brand development and strategy. She plays an important role in the success of LV.

Antoine (47) is CEO of Berluti and Chairman of Loro Piana.

Antoine focuses on expanding LVMH's presence in luxury fashion and plays a role in brand communication and acquisitions.

Alexandre Arnault (32) is CEO of Tiffany & Co.

Alexandre revitalized Tiffany by targeting younger audiences and improving its digital presence. As a result, profits doubled within a year.

Frédéric Arnault (29) is CEO of LVMH Watches. After being CEO of Tag Heuer.

Jean Arnault (26) is Director of Product & Communications at Louis Vuitton Watches.

Finally, a few examples of LVMH's pricing power and price trends:

$MC (-0,45%)
$KER (+1,27%)
$RMS (+0,05%)
$MONC (+1,48%)
$BRBY (-0,97%)
$BOSS (+8,87%)

Earnings summary this morning 👇🏼

$ULVR (-0,39%) | Unilever Q3 2024 Earnings

Rev €15.25B (est €15.398B)

DIV/SHR €O.4396

Underlying Volume 3.6% (est 3.1%)

Underlying Sales 4.5%, (est 4.25%)

Still Sees FY Underlying Sales To 5% (est 4.2%)

Still Sees FY Underlying Oper. Margin At Least 18%

2024 FY Outlook Unchanged

$BARC (-0,25%) | Barclays Q3 2024 Earnings

Pretax Profit £2.23B (est £1.96B)

Net Interest Income £3.31B (est £3.11B)

Investment Banking £594M (est £552.3M)

FICC Rev. £1.18B (est £1.13B)

Sees FY Cost To Income Ratio About

Sees FY UK Net Interest Income About £6.5B

$AAL (-2,63%) | Anglo American Q3 2024 Earnings

Diamond Prod 5.6M Carats (est 5.6M)

Copper Output 181,000 tons (est 181,334)

American Sees Fy Diamond Prod 23M to 26M Carats

De Beers To Continue To Assess Options To Lower Output

PGMS Demerger Is On Track To Complete By Mid 2025

$RMS (+0,05%) | Hermes International Q3 2024 Earnings

Rev €3.70B (est €3.68B)

Sales At Constant FX 11.3% (est 10.5%)

Leather Goods Sales At Constant FX 14% (est 12.8%)

CFO: Sees No Change In Global Trends Early Q4

CFO: China Higher Basket Spend Made Up For Lower Traffic

$005380 | Hyundai reports a 6.5% drop in profits in the third quarter despite an increase in sales, leading to a fall in the Seoul share price of almost 5%. Operating profit falls to 3.6 trillion won, while the operating margin drops to 8.3%.

$BN (+0,12%) | Danone increases its turnover in the third quarter by 4.2% to 6.9 billion euros, exceeding analysts' expectations. Demand is particularly high in North America and Asia.

$RNO (+4,14%) | Renault increases sales by 1.8% to 10.7 billion euros in the third quarter, but falls short of analysts' expectations. Exchange rate effects have a dampening effect on the result, without which a 5% increase in sales would have been possible.

$SY1 (+1,08%) | Symrise raises its forecast for organic growth in 2024 to around 7 % after strong sales growth in the first nine months. Sales rose by 6 % to 3.8 billion euros, driven by petcare and fragrance products.

$WAF (+1,89%) | Siltronic raises 2024 EBITDA margin guidance to 24-26% as acceptance of new Singapore factory is delayed. Third-quarter sales rise 2.3% to EUR 357m, exceeding expectations, while profit falls to EUR 19m.

$BEI (-0,49%) | Beiersdorf records organic sales growth of 6.5% to 7.5 billion euros, but falls short of analysts' expectations. Sales of the luxury brand La Prairie fall by over 7% in China, while the annual targets for 2024 are confirmed.

Good morning,

I haven't had any individual stocks in the last 10 years, but have now decided to invest in 10 stocks again. I have already chosen 9 of them, one is still missing. Perhaps someone can give me a tip.

I have the following criteria:

-No tech, I have enough of that already

-If possible, no USA. But this is not an exclusion

-Dividend doesn't matter

-Investment horizon > 10 years

Here are the 9:

$LOTB (-1,15%)

$CTAS (+0,05%)

$LIN (+0%)

$8001 (-0,13%)

$RMS (+0,05%)

$LMT (+0,25%)

$V (-0,94%)

$BRK.B (-0,67%)

$BLK

If there are any concerns about the nine, I will gladly take some out again

Update: @RealMichaelScott Someone has asked in the comments for the reasoning behind my selection so far. I'd like to answer that here:

There are a few more smart criteria that fit my preferences and gut feeling. These would be:

I like stocks with long-phase linear growth, see $CTAS (+0,05%) in the last 12 months and $8001 (-0,13%) . $LOTB (-1,15%) is one of the best stocks in the world in my opinion. Exponential growth will certainly turn around at some point, but I don't like cyclicals. I also value positive free cash flow. I am not interested in P/E ratios (for whatever reason). Another reason is diversity with the 10 stocks, I'm not sure yet. $LIN (+0%) was and would still be the only DAX stock that makes it to me. I would have gladly done without Armor, but unfortunately it will be part of the next 10 years, so $LMT (+0,25%) . I'm also looking for stocks that closed 2020 and 2022 on a positive note.

$BRK.B (-0,67%) is somehow part of such a portfolio:-), I'm not sure about $V (-0,94%) I'm not sure about. Thanks for the suggestions on medical+health, that's definitely still missing. I still have doubts about energy. Due to the climate problem, I don't know where the journey will take us.

Update 2: Thanks for all the good suggestions. I took advantage of the bad weather and the window day today and have now made my decision:

$BLK (-0,98%) flies out again, $V (-0,94%) stays

Instead there are 2 new ones from your suggestions:

$CAT (-0,26%) and $NOVO B (+0,32%)

So it looks like this:

$LOTB (-1,15%)

$CTAS (+0,05%)

$LIN (+0%)

$8001 (-0,13%)

$RMS (+0,05%)

$LMT (+0,25%)

$V (-0,94%)

$BRK.B (-0,67%)

$CAT (-0,26%)

$NOVO B (+0,32%)

I did a backtest from 1.1.2020, all equally weighted

Average annual return: 24.32%

Total return approx. twice as high as the S&P ETF $CSPX (+0,4%)

In the difficult years 2020 and 2022 each over 13% plus

10k became 28.5k with dividends in the 4.5 years

Nice linear progression over the entire term:

But unfortunately: forecasts are difficult, especially when they concern the future!

Depot review September 2024 - The first green September in my depot since 2019 📈

September is generally regarded as the worst month on the stock market, with a negative monthly performance more than 50% of the time. This is also consistent with my experience since 2013. In 11 years, it has been negative 6 times and positive 5 times. From 2020 to 2023, the last 4 years were all negative. However, September 2024 is now the first positive September since 2019, which means it is exactly 50/50 for me - 6 positive and 6 negative Septembers since 2013.

The Fed's interest rate turnaround and the stimulus in China have certainly contributed to the positive trend

Monthly view:

In total, September was +1,2%. This corresponds to price gains of ~3.600€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +1.0% and the S&P500 +1.3%

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers is particularly exciting this month.

On the winning side at the very top are my China ETF with € +1,300 and is thus back in the green for the first time in a long time. The following winners are also a colorful mix with Meta, Bitcoin, Home Depot and Sea. Really a very broad mix with no clear tendency towards regions, sectors or the like

On the loser side in my portfolio in September were mainly pharmaceutical stocks. Novo Nordisk, Amgen and Johnson & Johnson. Even worse, with price losses of ~€700 each, were only Palo Alto Networks and ASML.

The performance-neutral movements in September were just under €4,500. The premium refund from my private health insurance also played a large part in this. In September, I received over €2,000 back for the year 2023, which was of course invested directly to compensate for any higher pension contributions.

Current year:

My performance in the current year is +20,4% and thus above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 17.2%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~321.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€69,000 in the current year 2023. ~49.000€ of this comes from price increases, ~2.800€ from dividends / interest and ~17.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in September were 23% above the previous year at ~€360
• Amgen is in the lead with a (gross) dividend of €50 every 3 months. But Johnson & Johnson with €45 is also a delight
• In the current year, the dividends after 9 months are +25% over the first 9 months of 2023 at ~2.210€

Buys & sells:

• I bought in September for approx. 3,500€. 2,100 of this came from the premium refund from my private health insurance and went into the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue ChipsLockheed Martin $LMT (+0,25%) Republic Services $RSG (+0,34%) Thermo Fisher $TMO (-0,99%) ASML $ASML (+0,29%) MasterCard $MA (-1,02%) Deere $DE (-1,67%) Northrop Grumman $NOC (+0,96%) Itochu $8001 (-0,13%) Salesforce $CRM (+2,21%) Hermes $RMS (+0,05%) Constellation Software $CSU (+1,19%)
• 
  Growth: -
• ETFsMSCI World $XDWD (+0,47%) Nikkei 225 $XDJP (+0,59%) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (+0,21%)
• 
  Crypto: Bitcoin $BTC (+0,73%) and Ethereum $ETH (+5,53%)
• 
  Sales there were none in September

Target 2024:

My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Due to the extremely positive market development in the current year, my portfolio currently stands at ~€321,000.

At the beginning of September, my portfolio was still quite a bit lower at €304,000 due to the weak start to the month. At this point, it was therefore quite a way off the previous high of €320,000 in June.

I have now reached a new high of €321,000 and am optimistic that I can still beat my year-end target of €300,000.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

Apparently not a bad buy 10 days ago. It can go on like this :)

Companies that I find interesting but do not yet have in my portfolio and that have a 10-year average ROIC of over 10% and a 5-year average ROCE and ROIC of over 10%, $ANET (+300%), $MA (-1,02%) , $VRTX (+0,04%) , $RMS (+0,05%) , $PGHN (+0,99%) , $COLO B (-0,73%) , $ACN (+2,43%) , $MNST (-0,67%)
$FICO (+0,99%) , $MCO (+1,28%) , $KNIN (-1,2%) , $S&P Global, $ISRG (+1,64%)
$III (+0,44%) , $BKNG (+0,25%)
$HLAG (-2,23%) , $QCOM (+0,08%) , $CFR (+0,78%) and $IFX (+1,02%) . Already blatant companies

$MC (-0,45%)
$KER (+1,27%)
$BRBY (-0,97%)
$RMS (+0,05%)

say yesaaaa a share for eternity, buy in here nothing will go wrong.

#lvmh is so broadly positioned 😉