In Azerbaijan, the theory that the Embraer E190 of Azerbaijan Airlines was accidentally shot at by Russia is considered likely. And claims that the plane was refused permission to land.
The holes were puzzling: shortly after the crash of an Embraer E190 from Azerbaijan Airlines, photos showing holes in the tail unit and fuselage made the rounds. Many observers suspected that they could be bullet holes or shrapnel. According to the local portal Caliber, the investigators in Azerbaijan apparently think so too.
It claims to have learned from reliable government sources that the Azerbaijani authorities assume that flight J28243 was shot at by the Russian Pantir-S missile defense system as it approached its target in Grozny. A Ukrainian drone attack on the Chechen capital took place at the same time. This was confirmed by the government of the republic. However, there is said to have been no damage.
Heavy fog not confirmed in weather data
According to the authorities, the Embraer E190 with the registration number 4K-AZ65 was unable to land in Grozny due to poor visibility. Apparently at least two attempts had failed. The cockpit crew then looked for alternatives. However, according to Caliber, they were not given permission to land at the Russian alternative airports of Makhachkala and Mineralnye Vody.
The Embraer E190 was sent to Aktau - i.e. over the Caspian Sea. This means a distance of around 450 kilometers. The day after the crash, Azerbaijan Airlines announced that it was suspending all flights to Chechnya and Dagestan.
Airspace was not closed
If it really was an accidental attack, Russia would be under pressure to explain itself. If there is a risk of a drone attack or if one is already underway, the airspace in the area must be closed to civilian aircraft. This was not the case over Chechnya at the time. Russia still rejects the accusations of a possible bombardment.
The only thing that has been officially proven so far is that the cockpit crew of Azerbaijan Airlines sent the transponder code 7700 over the Caspian Sea. It stands for an air emergency. Videos taken at the airport show the E190, which was delivered in 2013, descending rapidly. It then turns to the right and hits the ground. Flames can be seen rising, later black smoke. The result of the tragic crash of flight J28243 on December 25: 40 dead and 29 survivors.
