1Semana
What "recovery" in the markets? It's been supernaturally steep all year?
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1Semana
@the_way_to_1million then I mean the economy. ZEW and other sentiments are falling and are at rock bottom, unemployment figures are rising, GDP is stagnating. The order situation is rather weak in industry and cyclical companies...and share prices do not reflect the market situation.
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1Semana
@the_way_to_1million I was just about to ask
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•1Semana
An economic downturn is a phase in the business cycle characterized by a decline in economic activity. It is generally defined as a decline in real gross domestic product for two consecutive quarters.
Indicators of an economic downturn:
Decline in GDP:
Decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters is a key indicator of a downturn.
Rising unemployment:
When the economy shrinks, companies often lay off employees, which leads to an increase in unemployment.
Falling consumer spending:
In a downturn, consumers spend less money, leading to a decrease in demand for goods and services.
Declining investment:
Companies invest less in new plant and equipment during a downturn.
Falling industrial production:
The production of goods in industry decreases in a downturn.
Increasing insolvencies:
When companies get into difficulties, they can file for insolvency.
Falling real estate prices:
Real estate prices often fall during a downturn.
Consumer confidence:
Consumer confidence usually falls in a downturn as people worry about their jobs and the economic future.
Purchasing Managers' Indices:
The purchasing managers' indices for the manufacturing and service sectors provide an indication of the mood in the economy. A fall in these indices can indicate a downturn.
Interest rate trends:
Central banks usually cut interest rates during a downturn in order to stimulate the economy.
Personally, I follow an anti-cyclical strategy and invest in cyclical stocks when they are cheaply valued, i.e. when they have a low P/E ratio compared to their historical average. This allows you to benefit from the recovery during the upswing.
Examples of cyclical sectors:
* Automotive industry
* Construction industry
* Raw materials industry
* Tourism industry
* Luxury goods industry
* Logistics / Transportation
Indicators of an economic downturn:
Decline in GDP:
Decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters is a key indicator of a downturn.
Rising unemployment:
When the economy shrinks, companies often lay off employees, which leads to an increase in unemployment.
Falling consumer spending:
In a downturn, consumers spend less money, leading to a decrease in demand for goods and services.
Declining investment:
Companies invest less in new plant and equipment during a downturn.
Falling industrial production:
The production of goods in industry decreases in a downturn.
Increasing insolvencies:
When companies get into difficulties, they can file for insolvency.
Falling real estate prices:
Real estate prices often fall during a downturn.
Consumer confidence:
Consumer confidence usually falls in a downturn as people worry about their jobs and the economic future.
Purchasing Managers' Indices:
The purchasing managers' indices for the manufacturing and service sectors provide an indication of the mood in the economy. A fall in these indices can indicate a downturn.
Interest rate trends:
Central banks usually cut interest rates during a downturn in order to stimulate the economy.
Personally, I follow an anti-cyclical strategy and invest in cyclical stocks when they are cheaply valued, i.e. when they have a low P/E ratio compared to their historical average. This allows you to benefit from the recovery during the upswing.
Examples of cyclical sectors:
* Automotive industry
* Construction industry
* Raw materials industry
* Tourism industry
* Luxury goods industry
* Logistics / Transportation
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