Very good contribution!
My comment: I don't see another interest rate cut in the US as being all that bad, as long as it doesn't happen too early in Q1. The reason for this is that in most cases the effects of these cuts only "reach" the market 3-6 months later (the simultaneous development of inflation and labor market data is important here).
As soon as the aforementioned data does not visibly improve, I also see a possible recession (which, however, will not play out until 2026 and goes perfectly with the crypto cycles) - in addition, the Fed has always intervened too late in the past, i.e. raised interest rates.
I continue to assume that we will see at least one rate cut and a double top, Q1 at around 120-130k, followed by a summer slump (here the development of the labor market data in conjunction with the market's expectation of a rate cut is decisive) and then the bull run top at 150-180k in Q3. After adaptation and institutional demand, even over 200k :)
My comment: I don't see another interest rate cut in the US as being all that bad, as long as it doesn't happen too early in Q1. The reason for this is that in most cases the effects of these cuts only "reach" the market 3-6 months later (the simultaneous development of inflation and labor market data is important here).
As soon as the aforementioned data does not visibly improve, I also see a possible recession (which, however, will not play out until 2026 and goes perfectly with the crypto cycles) - in addition, the Fed has always intervened too late in the past, i.e. raised interest rates.
I continue to assume that we will see at least one rate cut and a double top, Q1 at around 120-130k, followed by a summer slump (here the development of the labor market data in conjunction with the market's expectation of a rate cut is decisive) and then the bull run top at 150-180k in Q3. After adaptation and institutional demand, even over 200k :)
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@Ph1l1pp Yes, exactly, as you rightly write: Interest rates need time to arrive in the market and the rate cuts should not yet be fully visible in the current figures. Real interest rates, i.e. for the consumer, have barely fallen so far and will take even longer.
I can well imagine the 200k mark. What bothers me is that Congressional Republicans don't really have Crypto Bags, making it seem like it's not really a political issue right now.
Whether inflation or recession dominates now will depend at most on Trump's policies, because the FED will react to that as well. I think that what the market is not pricing in is the pressure on the labor market from AI and the possible misinterpretation of the Fed.
I can well imagine the 200k mark. What bothers me is that Congressional Republicans don't really have Crypto Bags, making it seem like it's not really a political issue right now.
Whether inflation or recession dominates now will depend at most on Trump's policies, because the FED will react to that as well. I think that what the market is not pricing in is the pressure on the labor market from AI and the possible misinterpretation of the Fed.
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