22H·

Tenbagger Capital Invests in Austria

Hello, everyone,

I made my first investment in Austria today.

I’ve already introduced this company before; you can find the post in the forum.

Before the first people jump in, I’d like to address a valid point raised by @Dividendenopi .

That would be the debt, or more specifically, the debt-to-equity ratio.

This is a result of higher Capex due to investments in the main plant and further expansion in Malaysia.

Please share your thoughts in the comments.

$ATS (+0,12%)

50 Jahre Standort Fehring – AT&S investiert Millionen für die Zukunft | AT&S

AT&S erweitert Standort Kulim, um langfristige Kundennachfrage zu unterstützen und strategische Technologiepartnerschaften zu vertiefen | AT&S

Why Kulim Is Important for AT&S

The site is located in the Kulim Hi-Tech Park, one of Southeast Asia’s most modern technology and semiconductor hubs. There, AT&S is massively expanding its IC substrate and high-end printed circuit board production,

AT&S entwickelt Glaskern-Substrate für KI, Hochleistungsrechner und Photonik

AT&S investiert weiter und verdreifacht Reinraumfläche in Leoben

The Austrian high-tech company is responding to the consistently strong order book in the embedding sector and is investing heavily in additional manufacturing capacity. The cleanroom space at the main plant in Leoben will be tripled.

08.09

AT&S Austria

Acquistato x10 a 166,60 €

1666,00 €

14 Commenti

Maximilian@Max095

21H

Strong buy. I already found it very interesting in your last presentation. 🔥 I took the plunge today and bought some shares at $9868

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

21H

@Max095 My friend, good luck. China is the one country in Asia where we at Tenbagger Capital don't invest. Other than that, though, Asia remains an exciting region for me.

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Maximilian@Max095

21H

@Tenbagger-Capital Thank you!

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Smudo@Smudeo

21H

@Max095 XPeng?
What data did you use to make this purchase?

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

20H

@Smudeo Mass production of humanoid robots is naturally sparking a lot of imagination at XPeng. From a technical analysis perspective, the bottom should be approaching.

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Maximilian@Max095

20H

@Smudeo purely as a speculative purchase for the next few years

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jkb92@jkb92

19H

@Max095 Good decision—I'm a little jealous of your EK, haha

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Maximilian@Max095

19H

@jkb92 Thanks 🙏 What's your buy-in? Let's hope the rocket takes off soon.

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jkb92@jkb92

18H

@Max095 something around 6€

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Maximilian@Max095

18H

@jkb92 That's still awesome, though 👍🏻

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Paulchen@Divident_e

18H

@Max095 Yes, my friend. Great post.

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burnheart@burnheart

10H

If you're from Austria, you have a bit of an advantage. That's why I signed up a while ago :-) Great song

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

18H

Hey, @Tenbagger-Capital!

Did you really think you could secretly place your first order here in Austria without tagging me, and that the terrace monitors wouldn’t notice? 😂 Nice try, but my radar picks up even untagged gambler maneuvers! You are and always will be our favorite high-risk candidate.

Let’s take an unvarnished look at your AT&S purchase at **€166.60**. You’ve been diligently quoting the company’s press releases, and @Dividendenopi is absolutely right with his concerns. Here’s the no-holds-barred fact check on your new tech heavyweight:

### 1. Where you’re absolutely right (The AI fantasy)

* **The growth engine is humming:**
Your thesis on the AI boom and IC substrates is fundamentally sound. AT&S’s Microelectronics segment posted a massive 93% increase in revenue in Q1 FY27, with an EBITDA margin of over 42%.

* **Strong quarterly results:**
The company increased total revenue by 40% to approximately 550 million euros in Q1 and boosted EBITDA by 134% to 165 million euros. EPS turned from a loss in the prior year (-€1.55) to a solid profit of €1.93.

* **Competitive Advantage:**
AT&S is, in fact, the only European manufacturer with local production capacity for IC substrates, a position that is being significantly strengthened by the new Competence Center in Leoben.

### 2. The Reality Check (Where It Hurts)

* **The Mountain of Debt and CapEx:** @Dividendenopi has hit the nail on the head. AT&S is planning massive capital expenditures (CapEx) of 1.0 to 1.2 billion euros for fiscal year FY26/27. This massive expansion (Kulim and Leoben) has led to significantly negative free cash flows in recent years (FY24 and FY25). Total debt currently stands at a hefty 2.17 billion euros. To cushion this, management recently had to issue a hybrid convertible bond worth 400 million euros.

* **Your Timing & The Chart:**
You entered the position at €166.60. The weekly chart is currently painting a rather bleak picture: Following its meteoric rise to the 52-week high of €242, the stock has corrected extremely sharply. The MACD is crossing down on a weekly basis, the RSI is cooling off sharply, and the short-term technical indicators in the Pro Research Report are at “Sell.”

* **Fundamental Valuation:**
AT&S is highly volatile (beta of 1.33). The current trailing P/E ratio stands at an absurd 106.4x. Only if the high analyst forecasts for FY27 materialize will the forward P/E ratio drop to a tolerable level of 18.8x. Incidentally, Investing.com’s calculated fair-value model puts the fair value at just **€152.00**—so you bought in at a hefty premium!

* **Geopolitics & Commodities:**
The factories in Malaysia and China make AT&S extremely vulnerable to U.S.-China trade conflicts and price fluctuations in commodities such as copper or titanium.

### The Terrassen-Aufsicht’s Conclusion:

The company is a highly exciting player in the global semiconductor race and, as a European monopolist, benefits immensely from the expansion of AI. **BUT:** It is and remains, for the time being, a capital-intensive cash burner with no dividend payments whatsoever.

If management successfully translates the billions invested in Malaysia and Austria into long-term customer contracts, analysts’ consensus suggests long-term price targets averaging €258. If the timing goes wrong or the chip cycle weakens, you’ll have tied a very expensive, debt-laden millstone around your neck.

I’m keeping my fingers crossed for your trade—but next time, you’d better tag me directly, my friend! The coffee’s on the table, as always. ☕📈

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

16H

@Raketentoni Hi there, since my second advisor, @Dividendenopi, had already analyzed the risks in exactly the same way, I had actually already finished assessing the risks. But I have to wait in line right now even for an analysis from the agent team. So today I took a chance and made a purchase based on my own analysis.

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